Thursday, September 24, 2015

UFC Fight Night 75: Nelson vs Barnett Gambling Picks

Disclaimer: some fights may have changed (likely) because I am making these picks nearly a month in advance. 

Nelson has looked increasingly terrible as of late. His time when he had a shot at fighting for the belt has passed. I see Barnett getting inside to put him against the cage and lay in his half-guard and pound on him for the majority of 5 rounds. I don't see Barnett putting him away on the feet but I don't see Nelson doing anything other than collecting a beating and a paycheck.

Carneiro got tossed to the comeback wolf of Munoz. I still think he'll become a threat in the division this time around and the Munoz fight hides that to make him a good pick over here. The lines aren't posted yet (as the time I'm doing these picks but little will change by then to have changed my mind).
Roop over Mizugaki another guy who has looked slower and more hittable each time out and the shopworn feel has this written all over it.

I'll admit I've been a Kikuno fan since his days fighting in Japan. I think he has the wrestling chops and enough stand-up acumen to weather any feeble initial storm Brandao posts then put him on his back and put him away if grind out all 3 rounds on judges scorecards.
Camus has that win over Pickett, but I like Horiguchi and his style and his losses haven't done anything to diminish my certainty in picking him in this fight.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 Gambling Picks

If the fight card has changed and these picks aren't exactly up to date I apologize.
I'm in the process of doing some adult-ing until the new year and won't be spending a ton of time blogging until then.
I'm doing my gambling picks for the coming months before I move and can't guarantee I'll be coming back to update them come fight time.

At any rate, it's free info and perspective, so take it for what it's worth.

I placed a parlay bet with Van Zant, Anthony Johnson, and Felder. All solid picks based on their match-ups that by themselves I don't see much money in wagering individually, but some change or decently tempting penny to go parlay and do a trio bet.

I don't see John Dodson winning this time or virtually any other than maybe Mighty Mouse getting old.
Mighty seems like too much a student of the game, a guy who lives his life like a nicer version of Marvin Hagler. He lives a clean, normal life, and won't succumb to the vices that typically age fighters as much outside the octagon as within it.

I think Demetrious wins via his startling ability to mix all the facets of mixed martial arts and presses for a late finish and gets it against an early and wily John Dodson.

Mir's 7 most clearcut losses were TKO/KO's. Arlovski's 17 notable wins are that specialty.
This is an easy HW version of striker vs grappler and don't let any forthcoming HL footage of that win over Duffy fool you.
Mir won't have that luck against Arlovski. I don't like betting HW fights but I may throw money at this one. I see the resurgence of Mir as of late as a fluke (though I'm sure people have been thinking that for years.
At any rate, the conventional wisdom/money should be on Arlovski.

Felder will be more active and batter the smaller, older, and more knockout-able Pearson.

Johnson will blast Manuwa out in a round or less and or put him against the cage, and donkey kong fist/pummel/hammerfist him into next year.

I like Rivera over Lineker who only looked good against guys he didn't make weight against. Rivera got that dynamite in his hands and looked great against Faber until the eye poke which I think is a big boost in his development mentally as a fighter. I think Lineker falters at this weight without the size advantage he enjoyed by fighting guys and not making weight.

Riggs looked terrible against Cote and Stallings looked great even in losing to Urijah Hall.
Easy fight to pick.