Inside the Octagon 240: Holloway vs Edgar Breakdown

Inside the Octagon: 236 - Holloway vs Poirier

ESPN 2 Gaethje vs Barboza: Picks & Predictions

Gaethje to weather the storm and get the TKO win in the 4th round. That being said, the advent of leg kicks + knees based on the Alvarez stoppage of Gaethje are concerning (Alvarez used a frequent body punch attack that slowed Gaethje down and then the knee later for the finish). Gaethje has hesitated exactly zero percent since his UFC signing in fighting the other action/dangerous fighters on the roster. In fact, I think few guys in recent memory have taken anywhere near the UFC import road that he has other than perhaps David Branch.
Anyway, I wouldn't bet my own  money on this fight as the leg kicks plus knees are exactly what I would want in my arsenal other than a sustained body punching attack to put the kabosh on a guy like Gaethje. That being said, Gaethje I feel slightly more confident making it to the 4th round of a war than Barboza. Though, Barboza survived three rounds with Khabib which is saying more than most guys can say.
The not confident pick is Gaethje by 4th round stoppage

MacDonald vs Emmett
MacDonald has fought a ton of the best at both 145 and 155. His hand speed here I think will put him ahead of Emmett for much of the fight and if MacDonald fires that 1-2 then moves the way he can, this will be a 1 or 2 round fight.
MacDonald by 1st round stoppage as Emmett takes the wrong fight from which to come back from a year long layoff.

Branch vs Hermannson
Branch by TKO after clipping Hermannson in the 2nd round.

Kowalkiewicz vs Waterson
Waterson via more diverse set of skills in a 3rd round stoppage by submission.

Paul Craig vs some guy
Paul Craig by submission because I've seen him fight more times than the other guy.

Pearson vs Green
Pearson by split decisions after which he retires after a longer UFC career than anyone would've predicted.

Holland vs Meerschaert
Meerschaert via submission in the 2nd round after an entertaining scrap.

Borg vs Kenney
Cursed Borg wins by submission in the 2nd round.

BJJ Scout Breaks Down Askren vs Lawler Takedown Truth (All Hail King Troll Askren!)

Some cool sections on inside wrist control, the Iowa ride, attacking the turtle, and Askren's double leg + body lock takedowns. The biggest takeway when I shifted from competing in Judo and training Muay Thai to fighting MMA was my reliance on the body lock or some form of upper body grip to finish takedowns in my fights. In Judo you can rely on the jacket whereas in MMA you've got underhooks/collarties, gable grips, et cetera. In terms of upper body takedowns in MMA, in my 5 fights I hit uchimata, haraigoshi,bodylock + outside trip, and a takedown in my 5th fight that I don't recall and don't have footage of. I'm interested when I return from ACL rehab to look at and think about this bending at the waist double leg business pointed out from Askren's game.

UFC 234 Full Countdown Episode: Whitaker vs Gastelum, Adesanya vs Silva, et al

Given all the talent plugged into ESPN+ cards, this one is frightfully lacking in depth. If you count Anderson Silva's retirement tour as being worthy of co-main event status, you've basically got 2 fights on this card. The fact that Rani Yahya is the fight before the 2 co-main's should prove that if nothing else. As a grappling fan, I'm excited to see him in action every time, but he is by no means a main card fighter based on excitement/style as in comparison with the names they've been plugging into ESPN+ spots, so I dunno if I'll be tuning into this one frankly. I'll spend the day watching my coach and friend, Jon Calestine hammer away at the ADCC trials, then probably watch the fight pass prelims and go to sleep early. Whitaker vs Gastelum and Adesanya are all great entertainment heavy names, but damn if the rest of the card isn't paper thin.

Inside the Octagon Analyzes Holloway vs Ortega

UFC 215: Inside the Octagon Breakdown with Dan Hardy - Demetrious Johnson vs Borg, Nunes vs Schevchenko

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BJJ Scout - Cormier vs Jones - Clinch Fighting Preview/Analysis

Dude is on fire this week (if it even is someone who identifies as male...). I've posted a ton about this DC/Jon Jones fight but frankly, I haven't been this excited for a rematch or a title fight or a unification bout in......I couldn't even tell you how long. BJJ Scout as always shows a narrative of the fight/stylistic match-up which I had not previously noted.

Personally, I noticed that in a larger context, either DC abandoned (I doubt it) or Jones adjusted (likely) to DC's head control after the first couple rounds. That being said, it's easy to forget that DC was coming down to LHW and had not fought 5 rounds at that weight before. Early on, especially, DC had to strictly diet to reach LHW because of his weight cutting experience/effects after the Olympics. The real question is, how much more mileage does DC have? Jon Jones' inactivity is a concern but moreso because of how focused or unfocused he has been with no looming fights (other than several he was pulled from for various indiscretions. Did the window of time where Jones' physical abilities and talent and optimal age range pass ala Muhammad Ali after his time spent incarcerated? Not to say that either man is now washed up or done, but with Ali there were some notable changes to be sure. I always chalked up the loss in the first fight to DC's fatigue setting in + Jones' ability to adjust. I also forgot until I rewatched the fight just how scrappy a fight it was. I mean, they really put it one one another for 5 rounds. It concerns me that DC has had as many fights go the championship distance as he has since winning the belt (ala it may have caught up with Dominic Cruz - not to mention an insane injury layoff period)......but we'll see. I promise this is probably the last DC/Jones post until the actual fight.

UFC 213: Inside the Octagon Breakdown Nunes vs Shevchenko & Romero vs Whitaker

AND

Bellator NYC & UFC Fight Night 112 Picks

It's a packed MMA/combat sports weekend folks.

I'm a bit meh that Chael vs Wanderlei is headlining over Fedor's fight, but it is what it is.
Bellator is bringing a TV event that has 3 fights I'm as excited for as plenty of the UFC's cable TV offerings as of late. Davis vs Bader was a UFC PPV fight previously. Neiman Gracie, Gallagher, Chinzo, are all UFC caliber fighters if not better than what I've been sitting through in the life of prelims as of late. Say what you will about the PPV, but it's also PPV worthy in my mind, but more on that after the card takes place.

Bellator 180/NYC PPV
Fedor vs Mitrione - The GOAT by 2nd round Submission
Silva vs Sonnen - Sonnen via Unan. Decision
Lima vs Larkin - Larkin via 2nd round TKO
Chandler vs Primus - Chandler via 3rd round TKO
Pico vs Freeman - Pico via 2nd round submission

Davis vs Bader - Bader via Unan. Decision
Gallagher vs Chinzo Machida - Gallagher by Unan. Decision
Neiman Gracie vs Marfone - Neiman via 3rd round Submission


UFC Fight Night 112 -
Chiesa vs Lee - Chiesa via 3rd round RNC
Boetsch vs Hendricks - Boetsch by 2nd round KO
Tim Means vs Alex Garcia Tim Means via Unan. Decision
Clay Guida vs Erik Koch - Erik Koch via Unan. Decision

UFC Fight Night 110: Lewis vs Hunt - This is Where We Are

These are the fights which I care enough about to discuss and predict:

So, Hunt returns to action against Lewis (who should've lost to Travis Browne after getting dismantled for 2 rounds. It was a pitiful fight to watch and I actually went to sleep assuming it was over before the 3rd round began). Well, fighting is fighting, and Lewis pulled out the win. Anyhow, unless Hunt has truly faded beyond measure, this will be a walk-off KO win for him. Lewis will backpedal once he tastes the pain and Hunt won't make the mistake Travis Browne did.

Derek Brunson vs Dan Kelly - Dan Kelly is that guy who improbably wins after each increasingly improbable win/pulls the rabbit out of the hat. By a slim margin he beat a very poor looking Rashad Evans and has amassed himself a little win streak. Derek Brunson has seen better days and is coming off a loss to Robert Whitaker (now a title shot contender - haha, I laughed once I typed that as I have literally lost count of all the guys promised a title shot by the UFC over the years), and Anderson Silva. I honestly can't pick this one. Daniel Kelly hasn't faced the resume that Derek Brunson has but Brunson's camp in North Carolina doesn't seem to be a hotbed of training partners to compete at the highest levels of the MMA world in its premier organization. 

I'm gonna go with Dan Kelly in this one as he somehow pulled it out against Rashad Evans and has the momentum. 

Ross Pearson vs Dan Hooker - Pearson is on the chopping block. The dude is coming off of 3 straight losses to Will Brooks (who ragdolled him for the most part), Jorge Masvidal (who just had a number one contender fight - is it ever really known to be one though?) and Stevie Ray. Granted, they're not slouches but 3 losses are 3 losses unless you're along the likes of Vitor Belfort or Dan Henderson or Anderson Silva et cetera. I've never seen Dan Hooker fight so I'll go with Ross Pearson as Dan Hooker has alternated wins and losses for his past 6 UFC fights.

Tim Elliott vs Ben Nguyen - Tim made it a fun, spastic affair against Demetrious Johnson. He also made it a great scrap with his fight against Louis Smolka which he won with his grappling and transitions and scrambles. He does enough standing up and swinging and kicking to get fights go the ground and it feels like I'm actually watching mixed martial arts rather than a lot of recent UFC bouts with sloppy kickboxing and a the occasional takedown in the 3rd round in an affair that looks like glorified sparring.
Against Mighty Mouse he kept squirming and transitioning against the champion and made him work the whole time. Ben is 3-1 in his last 4 UFC fights as a whole and this is a tough one for me to call. I'm gonna go with Tim Elliott as what he showed me against Demetrious Johnson counts for more than Nguyen's lengthier UFC resume.

Picks and Predictions: UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway

I've had a rough run over the past two UFC's for which I've done picks.
Things like the derailment of the Cirkunov and Al Hassan respective hype trains, Marcin Held's ill-fated Imanari roll into a knee, Gustaffson looking as on point as ever rather than the one who showed up to be KO'd by Anthony Johnson....but here we go again, because why not?

I think Aldo does his best when prodded by opponents (other than McGregor who wore him out with 2 fight build-ups on media tours) and Holloway I think will face the kind of Aldo we saw against Frankie Edgar. Aldo looked beyond sharp in that fight showcasing some amazing boxing slipping and pivoting and the 3-4 punch-kick combos for which he is best known, rather than the pot shotting he had done in fights previous.

That being said, Holloway dispatched Pettis, strangled Swanson, and has a ton of wins in a row against all comers and styles. This really is a *(&^ing awesome main event for a title unification bout. Other than McGregor returning to featherweight, this is TRULY the fight to make at FW.

I think Holloway will last the distance as Aldo seems content even when punishing to take it 5 full rounds and I think the Aldo we saw in his last fight shows up and I just don't think Holloway beats that version of Aldo 9 times out of 10.

Gadelha vs Kowalkiewicz - I think the loss on Gadelha record to Joanna is the blueprint for how she loses this fight. I actually prefer Kowalkiewicz to Joanna as Joanna is a bet more stick and move and pepper and avoid and Kowalkiewicz is a bit more stick it to them and move forward. Gadelha's move to a new camp is interesting and her bulldog build with slams is enough to give me concern about her putting Kowalkiewicz on her back and keeping her there 2 out of 3 rounds.
Is Karolina enough of a 2nd rate Joanna to do the same here? I think so, but I wouldn't bet cash $ on this fight as the threat of 2 takedowns across 3 rounds and a decision is exceedingly high.

Borrachinha vs Bamgbose: Bamgbose gets the KO here by his resume of stiffer UFC competition leading up to this bout.

Belfort vs Marquardt - Marquardt is well past his prime and is 2-3 in his past 5 fights with stoppage losses to Gastelum, and Thiago Santos, as well as a Unan. Dec. loss to Sam Alvey. He stopped Tamdan McCrory and CB Dolloway in that stretch as well. Belfort.....well, he's Belfort. If he lands a punch it's curtains, especially at this stage in Marquardt's career. That being said, Marquardt is cagey enough to avoid much of Belfort's tricks. Belfort has struggled against guys with the wrestling acumen to keep him on the backfoot and/or put him on his butt. I don't think Marquardt does that here. I think Belfort gets a KO win to go on his veritable who's who list of unconscious opponents.

Medeiros vs Erick Silva - Silva. I hate betting on fights this guy is in. He is always willing to somehow lose a fight he's winning or pull a rabbit out the hat and get a KO in a firefight. Silva lost a close fight to Neil Magny (he got outwrestled.....?) and KO'd by Nordine Taleb then most recently won by RNC. I can't bet on a guy with that kind of fluctuation in wins and losses. I love watching him fight as frustrating as it it as times. Dude likes to find a way to go out on his shield. Medeiros. In his last far he's alternated wins and losses (see a theme here? He's lost a decision to the hulking Francisco Trinaldo, been KO'd by Dustin Poirier, submitted Sean Spencer and won a decision of John Makdessi. I think he can win this fight but not doing anything overly ridiculous and fighting smart most of the 3 rounds. I think Silva's power is a legitimate concern as the dude swings for the fences, but I don't think Medeiros has the chops to tap Silva or KO him, and so my pick is Silva buy TKO in the 2nd round after backing Medeiros up in the first round coming out the gate like a madman.

Assuncao vs Moraes - truly a fight to determine how much Assuncao has faded in his recent inactivity since losing to Dillashaw and barely edging out Sterling and how much or not at all Moraes was benefitting from being a big fish in a small pond over in the WSOF. We saw Brance who was a 2 division WSOF champion struggle to win against a guy who was top 10 in his UFC return/debut. Will that happen to Moraes? I think in no way have Moraes past several fights compared to Assuncao but the inactivity of Assuncao is a major concern. I think Moraes hand speed and youth pull him out the win here by Unanimous Decision.

Carlos Junior vs Eric Spicely - I think Carlos has the size and pressure forward striking to put Spicely against the cage, drag him down and get the finish inside of 3 rounds as carrying Junior's world class black belt frame and top pressure will fatigue any mortal man.

Iuri Alcantara vs some guy - Alcantara despite his foibles is also a blast to watch fight. I see him getting the win by headkick KO/punch/knee combination straight outta street fighter 2 turbo.

Shortlist of Picks for UFC Fight Pass: Bisping vs Silva (kinda worth watching)

I'll be out of town competing at a Jiu-Jitsu event so I'll miss it, but I've got Bisping beating Silva by U Decision. Silva hasn't officially won a fight in almost 3 years. The gray in his beard makes him look aging and I think Bisping can still put the kind of fight on Silva to pressure him and batter him. Silva's time has passed.
"A king has his reign, then he dies."

It is the natural order of things. Silva still wants to believe in the myth of himself but I think the leg break and the steroid/drug suspension shook the image of himself he saw in others.

I was unimpressed watching Bisping's training for this fight and to see no truly notable faces in his training camp. I find this deeply concerting but less concerting than a feeble Silva refusing to believe his time has ended. He's the Lance Armstrong of MMA and his "performance" in the Nick Diaz fight was a throwback to the terrible fights with Leites, Maia, and others that we had to suffer through as fans because Silva was in a strange mood or simply didn't show up mentally or whatever-the-&^%$-it-was.

The Battle Lines video I watched, his voice, the literally sound of his voice was not the same to me. This might sound silly, but it's the kind of thing I pay attention to when picking fights.

Mousasi has COMPLETELY underwhelmed since coming to the UFC and is a B league-er but a can opener when better than the competition but unfortunately for him, the UFC top tier is too many attributes for him. He has looked TERRIBLE at times, listless at others, but simply unimpressive the vast majority of the time. He either needs to get on the realness in terms of steroids or leave the UFC.
Nakamura I'm choosing based on experience level and more wins by submission over granted lesser competition. I think Pickett uses a diverse stand-up attack to find Rivera in a submission whose biggest claim to fame is a close fight with Faber before an eye poke hurt him then he got finished.

I'm a big Pickett fan, have been since before he came to the UFC, but he's gotta be running against the clock career-wise at this point. Always loved seeing him fight, be good to see him win here. He has the clearly more well-rounded skillset when he chooses to use it and I think with his back against the wall, he'll use it here. 

Gambling Picks for Sunday's UFC Fight Night 83: Cowboy vs Cowboy

Waxed poetic about them earlier this week, and took a bit more time to think about my picks.

Cowboy vs Cowboy - people forget Cerrone has a super slick ground game and transitions well. I think he if he gets into a firefight with the bigger-framed Brazilian Cowboy it'll be a short night for him. I think if he comes out and finds a transition to the back he'll end the Brazilian's night early.

Brunson vs Carneiro - Brunson has never lost by submission and Carneiro's vast majority of wins are by submission. Brunson is a physical specimen and despite some danger flags, I'm going with Carneiro as he's looked great coming back into the UFC after an extended period fighting elsewhere. Brunson is dangerous to be sure but has not brilliant components to his game and I expect Carneiro to find a transition to a position where he RNC's Brunson.

Garbrandt vs Mendes - Garbrandt is like a slightly less hyped version of Sage Norcutt or however you spell his name, but Garbrandt totally underwhelmed me way more in his UFC debut. Garbrandt has bested Brimage  (1-4 in his last 5 fights at this point) and a ploddingly pedestrian point fighting stand-up fest against a guy who's beaten no one you've ever heard of nor could recall. I'm concerned about Mendes getting Garbrandt to the mat as Mendes hasn't faced any top flight guys yet in his short professional MMA career and Garbrandt is willing to look cool (or so he thinks) and win a plodding kickboxing 3 round bout as I've seen in one of his other fights despite all the hype train attention he's been getting as a possible next big thing. I think if he comes out trying to put Mendes away with a sense of urgency he'll make a mistake and get submitted. 

Dennis "I'm coming off of two stoppage losses to two top guys" Bermudez vs Tetsuya "I'll literally sit in your guard and hammerfist my way to a boring-ass decision" Kawajiri....I think Bermudez wins this one in a fight Kawajiri repeatedly tries to drag to the mat with the clinch and Bermudez not letting him.

Chris "yes, I fought Jacare twice and got paid" Cammozi vs Joe "yeah, remember when Nick Diaz and I fought in the hospital after our UFC bout" Riggs - loser leaves town match. Riggs has basically not won in the UFC other than a win via DQ and Camozzi has picked up wins when not facing the Jacare's of the division which Riggs certainly by no stretch of the imagination is. 

Shane Cambell loses to Krause via technical stand-up beating but with Krause's height at this weight class I could see him getting a late triangle to armbar finish in the 3rd round also.

Sarafian vs Scary non-American named fighter - Sarafian is too hittable at times for me to think he doesn't get clipped on the feet early and put away by the dangerous no-namer.

For whatever reason, my spider-sense is suggesting a night of submissions.....perhaps something is in the air? Well, we'll see Sunday night.
I'll be working Saturday night downtown, then Judo and the Hip-Hop Chess Federation Open Mat Sunday then relaxing/watching the fights Sunday evening.
Pretty excited.

UFC 196 Gambling Fallout & Upcoming Cash Bets

Well, I won cash betting on Wonderboy. Hendricks looked even worse than I expected. I figured Wonderboy would do to Hendricks what he did to Ellenberger, but figured Hendricks would put up more of a fight. Hendricks looked faded and shopworn after the first exchange and a couple crosses he took. Thompson landed a push/front kick that didn't even look like much and it was like you could see Hendricks' sails just deflate and he folded when Thompson swarmed.

Nelson pulled out a "win" if you can call it that. The highlights might convince someone who didn't watch the event it was a fight, but it was mostly plodding with some 2-3 punch combinations sparingly mixed in. Scoggins completely befuddled Borg who seemed to fall apart gameplan wise after the first round. Borg had no idea how to approach or cut off the ring or what to do at all against Scoggins. Scoggins was worrisome in that he CLEARLY coasted in parts of the fight and that kind of behavior will get him KTFO'd or submitted against guys further up the food chain. Makovsky showed not so much that he isn't good bantamweight material, but that Benavidez still has the chops to gatekeep a division he simply will not win until Demetrious Johnson moves out, dies, retires, or starts eating like Johnny Hendricks does between fights.

I have no desire to see Benavidez fight for the strap a third time when his most recent title bid was even less compelling than the first. Benavidez finds himself in Chad Mendes territory in that Mendes lost twice to Aldo, and has lost to McGregor by stoppage (short notice taking the fight notwithstanding). Benavidez will probably beat anyone else in the division but no one other than his mom is clamoring for a third title fight with Mighty Mouse.

That Circunov guy? Jesus. Looking forward to seeing him blast some guys a bit reminiscent of the hulking Houston Alexander but with more patience, a more well-rounded game, but the same bonkers power, size, and athleticism. It wasn't a bad night of fights for free TV, but that card for a PPV even with Fabricio vs Cain II was very much pushing it in terms of asking fans to buy a sub par product.

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On to the upcoming betting lines. I like the line on Bisping vs Anderson. Anderson hasn't won a fight in nearly 3 years, October 2012 being the last time he actually won a fight, didn't break a leg, didn't get KTFO, and didn't fail a drug test for banned substances. How the mighty have fallen.....
Bisping has lost to guys with better wrestling mixed in with their striking, ala Rockhold, Kennedy et cetera. I think Anderson is also in Hendricks territory: "A king has his reign, then he dies." It is the natural order of things. I also like the line on Brad Pickett vs Francisco Rivera. Rivera has some losses to guys with styles suspiciously like Pickett: strong wrestling mixed in with competent stand-up skills (Lineker, Faber, and Mizugaki). I think it's a tight fight and Rivera did impress me in that fight with Urijah Faber, but I think Pickett's overall skillset and experience edges Rivera out in this one.

Pickett and Bisping are two the most live betting underdogs I see listed over the course of the next few events.
I'm curious to see Miocic face Werdum. I hate betting on HW fights, but I like Werdum's skillset. He's dangerous AF on the ground, has that tall frame and can use the Muay Thai clinch with knees up the middle because he doesn't fear getting taken down like most heavyweights. I'll wait to see what the line is on that fight, and I'm especially curious to see how the oddsmakers peg the younger Miocic against the aging champ Werdum. Werdum I think has a few wins left in him before he retires.

Jon Jones vs DC is another upcoming ? for me in some regards. I think Jon Jones even with his personal life what sounds like a trainwreck beat DC over the course of 5 rounds. That was DC's first time fighting a 5 round fight and rounds 4 and 5 were what got him. I thought he worked Jon Jones in the tie-up with his head positioning until he faded in the so called Championship rounds. It's an intriguing bet and another one that I'm curious to see what the betting lines look like when they're announced. 

UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs Bader - MMA Picks

Normally I'd get to see this one because it's on at 8pm, and I don't go into my weekend job downtown until 10pm, but I'll be driving back from reffing all day Saturday at the Newbreed Grappling Tournament in Charlotte (after working at another weekend/nighttime job the night before until 2am). I'll catch up on the results when I get to work at 10pm. Blase blase. It's a decent card for some free TV and honestly, about on par with the now Werdum-Cain-less UFC 196 card that follows not long after on PPV. It's still hard for me to digest how one can just throw money on that card without that main event. Dana White used to talk a colossal amount of smack about Boxing promoting one fight cards, but this is a total "contender" card which is okay for free TV but Rothwell and Barnett aren't former title holders (Barnett was stripped of his title-winning performance against Randy Couture  - if you're a true old school UFC fan you'll remember) and Ellenberger looked completely outclassed in his last outing against Wonderboy (who finds himself facing the also faded and shopworn Hendricks on that UFC 196 card which has done zilch to impress me without it's title fight main event).

It's not showing but I've got Ryan Bader over Johnson by a Unanimous Decision.

I think Bader's got enough ring/cage acumen to avoid the Rumble train's early power and last out til the 4th round. Anything past 2 rounds I think is Bader's fight, but I would NOT bet any $ against Johnson's power.

I think Rothwell ends up mounted by Barnett and Barnett finishes him TKO style from the mount. I don't like betting against Rothwell because every now and then he pulls a rabbit out of the hat like he did with that front headlock choke against Mitrione's lazy shot. I think Barnett is smart enough to not do anything dumb, but Rothwell is huge, even for this division and unless you're Werdum, I loathe betting on HW fights as a general personal betting rule.

Saffiedine wins because Ellenberger looked terrible his last time out.

Aubin-Mercier looked great in his last few fights and only lost in his UFC debut on a fight stemming from the TUF Nations show (who cares?). His opponent's record, however, is misleading. Ferreira's last two fights/losses are to Beneil Dariush and Dustin Poirier and a win over Ramsey Nijem. I think, however, Mercier takes this one. He's got more momentum, has looked more consistent, despite not quite having faced the same level of opposition. Time to tell if Mercier is the real deal or just looks good against flatter opposition. I want to pick Mercier by stoppage here, but I think Ferreira's tougher than his record suggests as his only two stoppages and losses total are against Poirier and Dariush (who I think may eventually challenge for the title - you heard it here first). 

UFC 196 Extended Preview - Werdum vs Velasquez 2, Hendricks vs Thompson

I won $60 betting against the oddsmakers on Dominic Cruz. Their rationale that the ring rust would be a factor I felt was negated by how sharp he looked in that Mizugaki fight and simply his career of always showing up in shape. In watching Dillashaw's previous wins I also felt he only looked good bc the guys he fought were foils for his high volume style: they had plodding, march  into the barrage flat-footed styles (Soto and Barao) that made Dillashaw look better than he was. His face compared to Cruz's at the post-fight spoke volumes, Cruz made him miss time after time despite a few errant good shots and Cruz  mixed in some early round takedowns along with crisper combinations landing at times to take the decision. 

As for the Fabricio/Cain rematch, I will post my picks soon. I made a good bit of loot betting on Fabricio last time bc historically Cain falters after long layoffs, and once I saw he showed up just a couple weeks to Mexico City I was tripping over myself to get my bet placed. This time, however, history resides ok Cain's side as he's never lost a rematch. Like I said, I'll post my picks soon. 

http://youtu.be/hDpdapYGQhM

UFC Fight Nicks Picks for this weekend

I think Dillashaw is a poor man's Dominic Cruz. I think the stand-up Dillashaw showed against Soto and Barao won't win him the fight against Cruz. Normally I would never bet money on a man with so much layoff time as Cruz but 4 fights ago Dillashaw was losing to Raphael Assuncao and 3 fights ago was taking Mike Easton to a decision and yes he made the most of his shot against Barao but I think Barao's classic Muay Thai stance and non-existent footwork made him tailor made for Dillashaw. Cruz has only lost to Faber not in his natural weight class and I refuse to believe Cruz shows up not in shape for this fight. I think Cruz actually batters Dillashaw and stops him in the 4th round. 

I've got the at times unreliable Saunders stopping the shopworn Cote by Tko in the 3rd round.

I think Pettis decisions Alvarez who has not impressed me in his UFC time. Browne takes a split decision over Mitrione though normally I'd bet on a finish in a HW fight. 

Tim Boetsch is tough enough and wilt enough to survive until Herman's gas tank runs empty and I think Cruickshank beats Felder based on Felder's typically one-dimensional gameplan. 

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 Gambling Picks

If the fight card has changed and these picks aren't exactly up to date I apologize.
I'm in the process of doing some adult-ing until the new year and won't be spending a ton of time blogging until then.
I'm doing my gambling picks for the coming months before I move and can't guarantee I'll be coming back to update them come fight time.

At any rate, it's free info and perspective, so take it for what it's worth.

I placed a parlay bet with Van Zant, Anthony Johnson, and Felder. All solid picks based on their match-ups that by themselves I don't see much money in wagering individually, but some change or decently tempting penny to go parlay and do a trio bet.

I don't see John Dodson winning this time or virtually any other than maybe Mighty Mouse getting old.
Mighty seems like too much a student of the game, a guy who lives his life like a nicer version of Marvin Hagler. He lives a clean, normal life, and won't succumb to the vices that typically age fighters as much outside the octagon as within it.

I think Demetrious wins via his startling ability to mix all the facets of mixed martial arts and presses for a late finish and gets it against an early and wily John Dodson.

Mir's 7 most clearcut losses were TKO/KO's. Arlovski's 17 notable wins are that specialty.
This is an easy HW version of striker vs grappler and don't let any forthcoming HL footage of that win over Duffy fool you.
Mir won't have that luck against Arlovski. I don't like betting HW fights but I may throw money at this one. I see the resurgence of Mir as of late as a fluke (though I'm sure people have been thinking that for years.
At any rate, the conventional wisdom/money should be on Arlovski.

Felder will be more active and batter the smaller, older, and more knockout-able Pearson.

Johnson will blast Manuwa out in a round or less and or put him against the cage, and donkey kong fist/pummel/hammerfist him into next year.

I like Rivera over Lineker who only looked good against guys he didn't make weight against. Rivera got that dynamite in his hands and looked great against Faber until the eye poke which I think is a big boost in his development mentally as a fighter. I think Lineker falters at this weight without the size advantage he enjoyed by fighting guys and not making weight.

Riggs looked terrible against Cote and Stallings looked great even in losing to Urijah Hall.
Easy fight to pick.

UFC Fight Night 74: Holloway vs Oliveira Gambling Picks

I'll start out by saying I don't plan to wager any cash on any of this card minus the Kyrlov/Lima fight.

I don't like betting on LHW fights and I don't like betting on fights like Holloway vs Oliveira. I don't bet on women's MMA fights because I don't watch enough women's MMA and the quality of opposition women face coming into the UFC is so hit or miss they're nearly impossible to tell as to how good they may or may not be against stiffer step ups the ladder.

Krylov/de Lima is the only fight I'm betting cash on, I use Bovada btw, haven't had any problems, and they seem slightly less shady than your other online options available (relatively speaking, of course). 

At any rate, below are my picks:

I think Oliveira's stand-up will wear down and batter Holloway ala McGregor's win over Holloway, but with Oliveira's better submission resume in MMA, I think he catches Holloway in later rounds desperately trying to get back to his feet due to being down on judge's scorecards on rounds.

Magny hasn't been KO'd before and due to his height, I doubt Erick Silva's winging wind up bombs will be the ones to put him down for the count, unless Magny is gunshy for takedowns after getting ruthlessly out-ground work'd by Demian Maia (that was a blowout).
The smart money for Silva is to take him down relentlessly. The sad reality is that Erick Silva would rather swing for the fences from round 1 than he would fight a smart gameplan (anyone remember that Dong Hyun Kim fight?)

I really don't like betting on this fight as the wide-swinging Silva style is tailor made to get tagged by Magny but Magny's groundwork is hellaciously suspect.

I see Krylov as undervalued. Sure, de Lima has come nice looking finishes to his credit in two UFC fights, but the strength of Krylov's resume I think speaks for itself. Krylov's only recent loss is to St. Preux, a guy who just fought former belt challenger Teixeira and though he was outclassed there, Preux is a beast.

I like Krylov in this fight and I like this line and it's the only one I'm betting cash dollars/money on personally.

I think Cote and Burkman will fight a terrible fight with Burkman winning because he's slightly less over the hill than Cote who I can't believe they're still giving fights to at this point.