Metamoris 5/Copa Podio Predictions

 I'll zip through Copa Podio:

I think Gianni takes it over Miyao which actually goes against the conventional wisdom I'm seeing online.

I think Leandro beat Durinho despite the fact that Durinho has edged him out in their previous matches. I think Leandro's newfound "size" and every increasing strength plus Durinho's MMA focus will see a more athletic/more powerful Leandro get to Durinho's back. I've read interview where Durinho at least in words seems dismissive of Leandro, but Leandro has looked great, only barely being edged out by Keenan in the absolute at Mundials then recently coming back to defeat him at the NY BJJ Pro.

I see no reason why Preguica won't recapture his title. 


Metamoris 5:

I think the Secret Match will be.....drumroll please.......Kenny Florian versus Sean Roberts
Garry TOnon will likely finish Zak Maxwell. Zak is tough and in the gi I would predict a draw, but Garry in the NoGi is no joke. I think Garry takes this one by toehold off of a heel hook set up.

Some random guy versus Vinny? I think Vinny wins this unless he gets frustrated and breaks mentally like he did down the stretch against Keenan who frustrated him just enough to see Vinny begin to crack.

Yuri now faces Keenan and as much as Yuri has been on a tear, I see nothing from Yuri's recent matches to make me believe he'll pass Keenan's myriad of guard/lapel/whatever-you-call-it maze of legs and lapels and hooks and feet and grips.
I see this one going to distance as all of their encounters have been close.

JT vs Rory is interesting in that Rory is considerably heavier than JT. JT if he had a sharper leg lock game I would actually be picking to win, but I think Rory's beast mode size and strength will thwart much of JT's game until perhaps the last 4-5 minutes.

Kazushi "The Gracie Hunter" Sakuraba versus Renzo?
This is honestly which guy has more mileage left in the old man gas tank.
Kazushi's frightening losses at the end of his career to guys the size of Wanderlei and others....I just...it's hard to say. I think also, Renzo has a better stable of competitors and guys with which to prepare.
That being said....Kazushi is mercurial and unpredictable.
I mean, who do you find that rolls like that guy?
I'll go with Kazushi by unconventionality with some bizarre submission most of us have never seen before.

Monday Morning Hype: BJJ Scout Breaks Down Metamoris 5: Sakuraba vs Renzo

Ooooh, I can barely wait.
And Copa Podio is the same day.
I do think the clash of styles that BJJ Scout emphasizes means we'll see an exciting match. Two great BJJ players or two great wrestlers, whatever, can lead to a stalemated, truncated match at times. I don't see that happening here. 

My Metamoris 5 Thoughts, Picks, & Prognostications

Kevin Casey vs Vinny Magalhaes - all I can assume is Kevin Casey gets more visibility because he stepped in last minute against Keenan and Vinny gets a toss up  because he flatlined against Keenan down the stretch clearly getting frustrated that he couldn't pass.

Garry Tonon vs Zak Maxwell - I haven't seen enough of Zak Maxwell NoGi to bet on him against the "Lion Killer" Garry Tonon. Period. Garry's leg lock game is sharp. His back takes to RNC are sharp and as Kit Dale can attest, his guillotine is also sharp.

JT Torres vs Rory McDonald - it's hard to think that Rory will have much for a 2nd place black belt NoGi Mundials finisher and an ADCC medalist. I see JT hitting a heel hook in a pretty short amount of time.


 Yuri Simoes vs Rafael Lovato Jr. - Yurio recently bested Keenan in the open class of the world NoGi which is a big feather in his cap. I find it hard to believe he will edge out Lovato who has shown against Kayron Gracie among others that submission only suits him and his pressure.

Kazushi Sakuraba vs Renzo Gracie
The years and allegedly the smoking and drinking have not been kind to Sakuraba. I have no idea what his training regimen is like at his dojo but he has waaaaay more violence/damage points accumulated over the years that Renzo. Kazushi fought considerably up in weight against the likes of Melvin Manhoef, Wanderlei Silva, Mirko CroCop, Kevin Randleman, Mini Nog, et cetera.
That being said, Sakuraba's off the wall and unpredictable style can be best described as "mercurial" and he has shown that he may be the Kryptonite to the Gracies as he has notched wins over 4 of the clan: Royce, Renzo, Ryan, and Royler.
I'm gonna bet with my heart and pick Kazushi by moral victory with more attacks but with no actual submission victory.

Secret match? I will bet it's Kenny Florian versus Dean Lister way out of left field.