MMA Gambling Picks for UFC 185: Dos Anjos vs Pettis - Picks, Gamblingz, Thoughts et al

It's tough to bet against Pettis. He looked a bit rusty at the outset against Melendez but he was tagging Gilbert with very hard shots when he hit him, even back pedaling. Having rewatched the guillotine finish, Gilbert was hurt by Pettis' power, instinctually stuck his head down/low to grab the legs and paid the price.

It wasn't flashy shots per se, but much like that body kick with which Pettis folded Cerrone, Pettis does damage and lands shots that straight up do damage which changes the flow of the fight (as was the case with Henderson). Dos Anjos's finish of Henderson was impressive but I still side with Pettis in terms of ability to dish out punishment.
Pettis is just so damn difficult to bet against.

Normally, I wouldn't bet against the guy with the losses against better opposition (Hendricks), but the disturbing rumors I heard about how much he ballooned up between defending his title has me seriously concerned. It may be a case of expert failure and the ego of getting the belt and thinking he beat the GOAT/GSP the first time around, but no matter the source, it is alarming. I thought Hendricks lost the first fight and actually won the second on my unofficial scorecard.

All of the above being said, I actually think Matt Brown can win this fight. I didn't see the crushing power Hendricks once had in his cannon of an arm in the rematch with Lawler despite Hendricks' saying the reason he didn't have his power the first time round was a torn bicep. I also didn't see his much vaunted wrestling appear much in their second go round either so I find it hard to believe this fight will unfold differently unless he has some strange magic spell that befalls him when he's fighting 5 rounds rather than 3. Matt Brown is hittable as we saw against Lawler and seemed to wilt against Lawler's grind, but Hendricks doesn't fight with the same kind of pressure that Lawler has used to grind up guys like Brown, Rory Macdonald et cetera.

I've seen Hendricks fight three fights almost identically and not do the things he once did: land the power straight punch, use his clinching against the cage effectively and score takedowns. Matt Brown lost to a guy like him in R. Lawler, punishing power and grit that breaks you down over the course of the fight. I don't se Hendricks fighitng that way as often anymore. I can see Hendricks pressing Brown against the cage and taking advantage of Brown looking to Thai clinch.
At any rate, I think Matt Brown can win this fight and I'm gonna bet with the underdog this time. I could be reading the smoke signals completely wrong and Hendricks blows him out ala Jon Fitch or something but I just don't think so. 

Roy Nelson vs Overeem - not a fight I want any part of betting on in the least. That being said, I'll side with Overeem to win a lackluster decision by greater variety of strikes. Nelson is 1-3 in his last 4 fights and Overeem is just 2-2 in his last 4.

Ugh.

Cejudo should win assuming he actually makes weight in his next up weight class from multiple fails to make weight at 125.

Pearson vs Stout - Pearson has losses to Al Iaquinta and Diego Sanchez. Stout just lost to KJ Noons. That speaks volumes.

Cruickshank has the slightly better resume against more name opposition, but I'm a big supporter of Dariush and I think the oddsmakers have this one all wrong. 

I think the last three fights are pretty lopsided mismatches with not much wiggle room for betting to make $. 

AND

So, Frank Mir Won a Fight (This is Why it's Called Gambling)

Last week was one of those times....you know, the night where I'm reminded even a broken clock is right twice a day. Guys like Khabilov and others lost fights that on paper they should have won. Even the oddsmakers had a number of fights pegged wrong....if you can call it that.

I'm 29-27 for picks over the course of the last 5 UFC events. This last event really did a number on my picking %.







The betting lines weren't very favorable to make money off the "sure things" and we were reminded that in the fight game there is no such thing as a sure thing unless someone is on the fix.


At any rate, Khabilov, Andrade, and Silva just didn't get the memo. I did pick the Sam Alvey fight because I saw the startling number of TKO's on his record.




I'm reminded of the UFC Sweden/Stockholm card where almost none of the Swedes won.

I switched up some of my picks for Draft Kings as my thinking shifted a bit the closer I looked at some of the records of the guys fighting by picking Mike de la Torre but overall I went 2-9 on the card with my original picks.





Andrade blew it. Mir pulled the rabbit out of the hat. Iuri blew it. Barboza started strong with a lot of kicks and some well-timed knees but Johnson stayed on the walking him down game play. Dwyer pulled out a superman punch for KO, I mean...you can't predict that *&$@, y'know?



This upcoming weekend we have a Bellator card Friday and the hopelessly understaffed Rousey/Zingano PPV with Holly Holm (seriously?) as what I assume is the co-main event. Koscheck fights Ellenberger as both guys try to make some money but we all know neither will fight for the belt again.


I actually met Josh Koscheck in Vero Beach, Florida a couple years ago while there for my mom's wedding. Super nice guy in person.

At any rate, the card is full of a ton of guys who are almost total unknowns to me which makes betting problematic to say the least.



Tony Ferguson faces Gleison Tibau who is a gatekeeper extraordinaire but depending on the line, I may do some gambling. Roan Carneiro returns to the UFC after blazing it up out in the minor leagues against Mark Munoz who has only faltered against top flight guys like Machida which makes it hard to say if Munoz' better days are behind him or if he's a Ryan Bader who only falters against the best? 
Kid Yamamoto is fighting God knows why? but I'd sooner bet on Frank Mir to pull out a win than Kid Yamamoto at this point.



In Bellator's Bush League neck of the woods Emmanuel Newton defends his strap and as the guy is hittable with some come from behind wins, he's always entertaining, King Mo fights Cheick Kongo in what I think will be entertaining for as long as it lasts unless Kongo presses King Mo against the fence for 3 rounds as he does sometimes.

All the Gamblingz! My Bigfoot/Mir UFC Fight Night 61 Picks for Sunday

I'm gonna skip the part where we lament the formerly twice hot pissing steroid/PED Bigfoot is facing a guy who hasn't won a fight in 3 some odd years as the main event but hey, it's a Sunday, and I won't complain. Though, I think, in a strange way, we as fans supporting with our viewership these lackluster cards may be part of the larger problem, but that is a debate for another time:

Since I got back into semi-serious MMA sports picks/betting, I've gone 27-18 in picks. Not bad. I tend to go 3-4 events where I pick 60-70% correct then inexplicably have a bad event where I go something like 4-7 ( like I did UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz. It's usually cards with guys coming off of long layoffs or guys with some debatable losses and/or some undercard guys with not a lot of available footage of their early career online).

The other element is the betting lines as I think it's a no-brainer to get on Bigfoot Silva over Mir but the current line doesn't make it worth much in terms of putting several hundred on him to make some money back.


Without further ado, here we go:
I don't see Mir being any different here than he was in his previous 4 losses. I mean, you have to go back to December of 2011 to find a win (it's over Big Nog, if that's saying anything).



I don't see this being any different than Mir's losses where he gets battered on the feet, folds against the cage under pressure and gets TKO'd whilst on bottom position.


Michael Johnson is one of those guys who I was never impressed with but has quietly picked up some notable wins. Barboza is also a young guy who has looked amazing at times and flat at others (kneebar loss to the black belt/Brazilian tapping machine named Miller). That stoppage loss to Cerrone is also no big thing as a ton of guys have been beaten and/or stopped by Cerrone. In looking at their resumes I compare who Barboza's lost to versus who Johnson has beaten.
They've both got enough wins against good guys and losses to some other good ones to make this the usual pick 'em contest with Barboza a sliiiiight favorite in my mind. Barboza's fought about 6 months more recently but that time off could bring in a refreshed Johnson depending how he uses his off time.....again though, I give the slight edge to Barboza in a 3 round decision.

I'm going with Alvey due to the high number of TKO's on his record against semi-nameless opposition or not, the guy can punch. I think Khabilov is also a no brainer as far as picks go but the line makes betting on him cost prohibitive. TJ Waldburger is another no brainer. Some brazilians who both beat up a bunch of their countrymen which makes determining how skilled they are also makes that a tough fight to pick so I'll go with the guy who has the edge in experience and stoppages: Trator.