Kasai Super Series Card & Predictions: Rocha vs Leon, Craig Jones vs ***, et al

Predictions are as follows:

Leon won't mind being on bottom, as Canuto slight of hand to try and get Leon out of position on the feet. I expect Leon to sit to guard rather than take a chance on Canuto faking him out of position and scoring two points. Leon looked very good against Najmi if not a bit lackadaisical at the outset as he adjusted, but turned it up later in the match. This probably won't fly against the aggressive style and constant reset and untie and back away and come back then fake out then run around style of Canuto in NoGi. It's frustrating watching Canuto who has all the movement in the world but when threatened will endlessly disengage in NoGi matches in particular or on the feet (see matches with Vagner & Eddie Cummings amongst others).

This is a hard one to call, I could forsee some negative points pulled out, and Leon winning on penalty points or Canuto getting to Leon's back in transition if Leon plays open guard NoGi lazily at the outset of the match like he did against Najmi.


 Celso vs Vagner  -  endless head fakes and reaches and non commital  collar ties plus aggressive shoving and chops with the forearm from Vagner because disregard those training videos in his actuall matches he don't doesn't actually wrestle: rather he will harass your head and neck and shove and chop and collar tie until you take a bad shot or sit to guard (don't believe me? Watch his entire ADCC run and superfights in the past year). Vagner submitting Leon or even getting him down, and Vinicius is a capable wrestler + been around for ages. I expect a lot of handfighting and collar ties with Celso doing the actual work on the feet trying to take Vagner down and Vagner being on the back foot.

Craig has a win of ***. I guess for obvious reasons, this match couldn't be made at whatever NYC event due to some lingering questions in NYC for ***. Tex will pull and Craig won't necessarily be an idiot and play leg spaghetti. *** struggled to tap Demente in NoGi, which suggests that if Craig plays smart at all on top, *** doesn't have enough bullets in his leg lock submission game to catch Craig. I could see *** looking for that RNC grip ankle lock and actually getting his back taken, but more likely, Craig will stay on top, be smart, and eventually pass.

Khera will wrestle*&^% Cocco to death, probably score a takedown, or endlessly back and forth side to side try to pass and smash, winning on a guard pass or ref decision. Khera did Quintet which is sub only and literally attempted zero submissions so you already know what this match is gonna look like.

Lutes vs Araujo for the tree trunk specimen grapple match of the evening. I see Valdir actually having the size and strength to not get manhandled by Lutes, and perhaps even Lutes creating a scramble and scoring a sweep.

Boogeyman vs Tibau. Tibau looked flat in the sub grappling superfight I saw awhile back so my pick is Boogeyman by submission.

"Main Card

Dante Leon vs Renato Canuto 170lb

Celso Venicius vs Vagner Rocha 170lb

Tex Johnson vs Craig Jones 205lb

Mayssa Bastos vs Talita Alencar 115lb

Jorge "Macacao" Patino vs Gesias "JZ" Cavalcante 170lb

Mansher Khera vs Enrico Cocco 170lb

Richie Martinez vs Gleison Tibau 180lb

Matheus Lutes vs Valdir Araujo 175lb

Tony Way vs John Lineker 155lb"

BJJ Scout's BJJ Digest: Polaris 10 Results & Recap

Polaris 10 Review: Urijah Seeks to Survive/Nicky Retains Title, Boogeyman Lives by the Sword, Craig Jones Wrestles et al

Missed the prelims by and large, was training, as I'm back doing select positional rounds in the Gi, it's been 3 months and a week since ACL surgery. I'm glad I've been thru this perilous phase before to know how to navigate training what I can but making sure to avoid re-injury.

At any rate, some thoughts: Boogeyman is a guy who either submits or gets submitted. I can always respect that about him. He showed that perhaps Miha's success on the European stage is predictably not an indicator of success against the top tier of talent and experience. A learning experience with some takeaways: holding onto the Kimura while your back is being taken by a guy as lengthy in frame as Boogeyman and tripod'ing up while your back is taken/body triangle was ill-advised. Thank God he was on the card b/c he and Uno were the only 2 submissions on the main card.

Uno picked up a deserved win over a guy his age. Remedios hung onto the lockdown to stall passing attempts, but left his left arm extended for periods of time and predictably, got reverse armbarred by the experienced Uno.

Lutes tried the Diniz both knees down, hand fight and throat post to stop most of Jones's attempts to invert and utilize his Z-guard, Jones also did a fair amount of wrestling in an effort I suspect to prepare for ADCC. For all his joking and nonchalant attitude, Jones is a sharp guy, as evidenced by his willingness to wrestle and pass in the time that's elapses since his last ADCC. Jones won based on activity, and Lutes being stymied with any real passing attemtps.

Rodriguez beat the brown/black belt Ash after some snapdowns and him remaining turtled as Rodriguez worked to take his back. The RNC came not long after the back was taken with Ash not controlling the meat of the hand and opting to try and pull down on the wrist. Blah.

Faber came to squat on both knees, and disengage when Nicky would look to post on the shoulder to expose his base. Faber for his part just cuffed with the forearm, posted on the throat, and did a lot of shoving but really didn't come close to doing anything resembling a pass attempt or a submission attempt for the entire duration of the match. He tried to roughhouse which comes off looking silly AF. I think the hardest job is a commentator trying to call it anything other than what it is, but when you book a non sport grappler to face a dangerous submission grappler, the guy is gonna get waxed or he's gonna do everything to avoid any prolonged grappling exchanges. Nicky had a deep leg entanglement on the border of the mat, and in the reset, Faber extricated enough of his knee to survive, disengage, and reset.

Ashley Williams got another gift decision (he lost to Imanari, f*ck what anyone else says, go back and watch the match, Imanari dominated with submission attempts) over Ethan Crelinsten. Ash picked up a period out of the 3, but no way he won 2 of the 3. For coming off of a long layoff, he kept pace for much of the match with Ethan, but having trained with Ethan a bunch, I can tell you Ethan sets a very, very, very constant pace which is hard for most guys to match for a 15 minute match. At any rate, it's good to see a lighter competitor back on the stage doing well, despite my misgivings bout the gifting of a decision to him for the 2nd time at this promotion.