Saturday, February 24, 2018

UFC on FOX 28 Fight Card Predictions & Shots in the Dark

Alvey, Yahya, Barao - Should all pick up wins today/tonight. Alvey continues to fight whoever they put in front of him. Yahya also plugging along picking up unheralded UFC wins. He's actually been with the promotion for quite awhile just flying under the radar. He's only been stopped by Benavidez and lost a couple decisions to guys with names like Chad Mendes and a split decision to Niimaki, and also a decision loss to Mizugaki before he started dropping a bunch of fights.
Yahya is actually 9-3 in the UFC (with a couple losses to name guys in the WEC before it was consumed by the UFC. No doubt should pick up a win here.

Saunders vs Jouban - I've always liked Saunders for his willingness to strike and grapple. He's the kind of a guy who can toss a fight out the window with a minute left in round 3 so he's been frustrating to support over the years. Jouban if he fights smart should cruise to a stoppage or a decision win, but if he gets reckless, Saunders can easily suck him into a grappling exchange and get the tap. It's hard to say which Saunders will show up but I'll go with Saunders by submission round 3.

Emmett vs Stephens  - how good is Emmett? Hard to say with that counter strike KO of Ricardo Lamas. We didn't see a lot of fighting that night and he did capitalize on a golden opportunity. Stephens is a known quality: aggressive, good takedown defense, punches and kicks in combination if not particularly packing finesse. I don't think Stephens is a hard puzzle to figure out, I think Emmett takes this one in a split decision. Emmett strikes me as being smart enough to play matador and pick apart an increasingly frustrated Stephens over the course of the fight.

Andrade vs Torres - too much forward pressure and overhand rights from Andrade. Torres will wilt under the pressure like most of Andrade's opponents and this will be a 2nd or 3rd round stoppage win for Andrade

OSP vs Latifi - this is another known quality vs known quality type of fight. OSP's size and range and movement versus Latifi's smother wrestling, press against the cage, and overhand right bulldozer style. That being said, OSP's resume is a murderer's *&^%ing row of the LHW division: Teixeira, Oezdemir, Jon Jones, Manuwa, and  his last 3 wins are Okami, Anderson, and de Lima. OSP seems to lose big fights but is Latifi a "big fight"? Latifi has only lost to Blachowicz, Bader, and Gegard Mousasi, so it's basically two guys with impressive resumes but OSP edges him out in having faced arguably the top 5 in the LHW division, or guys that comprised the top 5 in the LHW at one point or another. OSP is the pick here. 

Perry vs Griffin - Perry's hype train and slugger unstoppable aura faltered a bit in his last outing against Ponzinibbio. Both guys talked a lot of pre-fight talk about going for broke and one of them would end up face down ass up on the canvas. That kinda was the case in round 1 but both seemed to content to not entirely press for a HL reel finish as the fight wore on. Ponzinibbio and Perry both faced adversity and showed they're not just front runners. Griffin's losses to Colby Covington and his fight with Zaleski dos Santos both suggest to me Perry will likely put him away unless he can really grind through Perry's offense and take a decision. 

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