Friday, July 17, 2020

UFC on ESPN+30: Figeuiredo vs Benavidez, Gastelum vs Hermannson Predictions


It's time for Benavidez to get one last belt shot. The guy has outlasted virtually the entire division at this point, and if this isn't the time, I don't know what to say. I don't know that this fight will end much differently than the previous one TBH, ans Figueiredo has less mileage and less years on him. Behind them though are a bunch of tough, dangerous, younger guys with considerably experienced (Moreno and Perez have 42 fights worth of experience between the two of them) fighters and Askarov and Pantoja who fight on the same card and have 36 fights of experience between the two of them. Winning the belt in this division seems like just the first step in looking to cement a legacy as there are 3-5 guys all dangerous that are waiting to dethrone whoever takes it this weekend.
My prediction is Figueiredo by stoppage in the 4th or 5th round.

Gastelum vs Hermannson:
It's a simple read, I don't see Hermannson giving Gastelum the trouble his previous opponents have as Hermannson it just not that dangerous to Gastelum. I hate being this confident about a fight but I just can't see how Hermannson hangs with Gastelum the way Till or Romero or Weidman did. This is such a huge jump up in opponent level for Hermannson. His wins over Leites, Branch, and Souza not withstanding, I don't see Gastelum having to fight at any range of the fight that he doens't want to, and if Cannonier could put Hermannson out, I can't imagine a fight where Gastelum doesn't do the same.

Lower on the card we have Davi Ramos facing Arman Tsarukyan. Ramos is coming off of a loss to Islam Makhachev. It's been frustrating to watch Ramos neglect to have the conditioning to force the fight to the mat where he has the obvious advantage over many opponents. He's been content to kickbox much longer in fights than I would ever expect which is mindblowing to me. He's 4-2 in the UFC with 3 of those wins coming via RNC. Tsarukyan seems a bit more versatile on the feet as he has a head kick KO win and a Spinning back kick + punches win (thanks for the description Sherdog!). He had submission wins earlier on in his career but it's very hard to gauge the level of competition in looking at records of events from abroad (and even regional level events stateside). I was super excited for Ramos coming into the UFC but he seems to have either had to manage his energy level judiciously in fights due to the weight cut or some other unexplained unwillingness to clinch at times that has me concerned for this fight. I could see Arman with a greater striking skillset content to pick Ramos apart as they move around the cage and picking up a unanimous decision, unfortunately. 

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