Nelson has looked increasingly terrible as of late. His time when he had a shot at fighting for the belt has passed. I see Barnett getting inside to put him against the cage and lay in his half-guard and pound on him for the majority of 5 rounds. I don't see Barnett putting him away on the feet but I don't see Nelson doing anything other than collecting a beating and a paycheck.
Carneiro got tossed to the comeback wolf of Munoz. I still think he'll become a threat in the division this time around and the Munoz fight hides that to make him a good pick over here. The lines aren't posted yet (as the time I'm doing these picks but little will change by then to have changed my mind).
Roop over Mizugaki another guy who has looked slower and more hittable each time out and the shopworn feel has this written all over it.
I'll admit I've been a Kikuno fan since his days fighting in Japan. I think he has the wrestling chops and enough stand-up acumen to weather any feeble initial storm Brandao posts then put him on his back and put him away if grind out all 3 rounds on judges scorecards.
Camus has that win over Pickett, but I like Horiguchi and his style and his losses haven't done anything to diminish my certainty in picking him in this fight.