Friday, November 21, 2014

Metamoris 5/Copa Podio Predictions

 I'll zip through Copa Podio:

I think Gianni takes it over Miyao which actually goes against the conventional wisdom I'm seeing online.

I think Leandro beat Durinho despite the fact that Durinho has edged him out in their previous matches. I think Leandro's newfound "size" and every increasing strength plus Durinho's MMA focus will see a more athletic/more powerful Leandro get to Durinho's back. I've read interview where Durinho at least in words seems dismissive of Leandro, but Leandro has looked great, only barely being edged out by Keenan in the absolute at Mundials then recently coming back to defeat him at the NY BJJ Pro.

I see no reason why Preguica won't recapture his title. 

Metamoris 5:

I think the Secret Match will be.....drumroll please.......Kenny Florian versus Sean Roberts
Garry TOnon will likely finish Zak Maxwell. Zak is tough and in the gi I would predict a draw, but Garry in the NoGi is no joke. I think Garry takes this one by toehold off of a heel hook set up.

Some random guy versus Vinny? I think Vinny wins this unless he gets frustrated and breaks mentally like he did down the stretch against Keenan who frustrated him just enough to see Vinny begin to crack.

Yuri now faces Keenan and as much as Yuri has been on a tear, I see nothing from Yuri's recent matches to make me believe he'll pass Keenan's myriad of guard/lapel/whatever-you-call-it maze of legs and lapels and hooks and feet and grips.
I see this one going to distance as all of their encounters have been close.

JT vs Rory is interesting in that Rory is considerably heavier than JT. JT if he had a sharper leg lock game I would actually be picking to win, but I think Rory's beast mode size and strength will thwart much of JT's game until perhaps the last 4-5 minutes.

Kazushi "The Gracie Hunter" Sakuraba versus Renzo?
This is honestly which guy has more mileage left in the old man gas tank.
Kazushi's frightening losses at the end of his career to guys the size of Wanderlei and others....I's hard to say. I think also, Renzo has a better stable of competitors and guys with which to prepare.
That being said....Kazushi is mercurial and unpredictable.
I mean, who do you find that rolls like that guy?
I'll go with Kazushi by unconventionality with some bizarre submission most of us have never seen before.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

The (Re)Dawn of Low Guard Passing: Paulo Miyao vs Leonardo Saggioro - Rio BJJ Pro 2014

With the advent of the Berimbolo and other standing guard pass dangers, it always seemed predictable that low/knee down guard passing would become the norm.
Even for a hardcore sport Jiu-Jitsu fan/follower, it's not the most exciting Jiu-Jitsu match to watch.
The relentless pressure, patience, and insistence needed to impose this type of game, particularly against a wily and crafty bottom player like Paulo is a protracted and tense but visually perhaps boring 10 minute display.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Monday Morning Hangover: UFC 180 & Bellator 131

I watched Bellator Saturday night. Yep.
I didn't watch UfC.
My buddy and I rode back from US Grappling Greensboro, sat down, and tuned in to Cable TV's SpikeTV Bellator broadcast.

Neither of us felt like dealing with the morass of your typical UFC-going casual fans at a sports bar and in no way do I regret my decision.

 The card was in no way worth leaving the house and venturing into the semi-cold nor standing up at a bar for 3 hours nor was it worth shelling out 40+ $$ to order it at home.

I didn't and don't care about Ellerberger, the exploding cauliflower ear or the guy who pooped his pants in the UFC that night. A couple of freak occurrences don't make the card somehow now a woeful letdown from anything other than what it was never, namely a card warranting a PPV. The UFC could have done far more for its fan base by streaming it or broadcasting it whatever for free or with commercials and calling it what it was: a card to build the Mexico-MMA/Latin America market.
The card as a PPV is laughable. As a consumer, I didn't support it with money and opted to watch a much more worth my time card for free on CableTV (free-ish?).
We live in a time for MMA where over-saturation means I had two other options for MMA on TV that weren't PPV and I'm okay with that. 

No amount of Cagepotato or otherwise trying to sell it as more than what it was will convince me otherwise.
The UFC put on a sham of a show Saturday and if you tuned in, they  have no reason to stop.

The Bellator fights were entertaining, the commercial breaks are never as bad the UFC's on free/cable TV and I had fun watching them, and watching Ortiz vs Bonnar sad as it was..somehow I found oddly gratifying. I honestly can't tell you why unless it's along the lines of why people watch videos on Narco Mundo websites. I got to watch Melvin Manhoef in action, King Mo beat up and finish some guy slightly less skilled than him. Tito vs Bonnar, and Will Brooks in a strangely ended fight against Will Brooks in their rematch. What's not to love?

Am I sad I didn't spend hours of my night waiting for the UFC's main event? Not at all.
Anyone who says this card had more than one actual fight worth being excited about is lying out the side of their mouth.

We're practically going without a UFC until December 6th, and no Bellator until mid-January.
There's a TUF Finale with Frankie Edgar vs Edson Barboza, Brad Pickett, and Joseph Benavidez on the card as well before then, but honestly UFC fans are waiting until December 6th for the rematch between Hendricks and Lawler and Pettis vs Melendez. In other action Urijah Faber will knock off another ladder-climber and Travis Browne returns to action.
main CARD
Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler
for welterweight title
Anthony Pettis vs. Gilbert Melendez
for lightweight title
preliminary CARD
FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET

The week following we get the (if he makes weight) debut of Henry Cejudo, plus:

Monday Morning Hype: BJJ Scout Breaks Down Metamoris 5: Sakuraba vs Renzo

Ooooh, I can barely wait.
And Copa Podio is the same day.
I do think the clash of styles that BJJ Scout emphasizes means we'll see an exciting match. Two great BJJ players or two great wrestlers, whatever, can lead to a stalemated, truncated match at times. I don't see that happening here. 

Friday, November 14, 2014

Turning Adversity into Success with Malcolm Gladwell & Miyao Bros.

Malcolm Gladwell speaks on the apparently insurmountable versus the reality of facing overwhelming opposition, and how difficulty proves integral to success:

Miyao loses I don't know how many times....loses many battles...but wins the war in the form of the brown belt absolute world championship when it matters most.