Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Podcast Episode 2: Bobby Fischer, Polgar Chess Family, Butthurt, and the Myth of Natural Talent

Episode 2 - Click HERE

Podcast Episode 2 posted by midnight tonight

This week's podcast includes Bobby Fischer, the Polgar sisters of Chess, the irony of guard-pulling internet vitriol, and some additional Jiu-Jitsu butthurt which I'll mention. Scant discussion of the UFC 196 that became a UFC on FOX and Wonderboy hosting Johnny Hendricks retirement party this past weekend. 

Monday, February 8, 2016

UFC 196 Gambling Fallout & Upcoming Cash Bets


Well, I won cash betting on Wonderboy. Hendricks looked even worse than I expected. I figured Wonderboy would do to Hendricks what he did to Ellenberger, but figured Hendricks would put up more of a fight. Hendricks looked faded and shopworn after the first exchange and a couple crosses he took. Thompson landed a push/front kick that didn't even look like much and it was like you could see Hendricks' sails just deflate and he folded when Thompson swarmed.

Nelson pulled out a "win" if you can call it that. The highlights might convince someone who didn't watch the event it was a fight, but it was mostly plodding with some 2-3 punch combinations sparingly mixed in. Scoggins completely befuddled Borg who seemed to fall apart gameplan wise after the first round. Borg had no idea how to approach or cut off the ring or what to do at all against Scoggins. Scoggins was worrisome in that he CLEARLY coasted in parts of the fight and that kind of behavior will get him KTFO'd or submitted against guys further up the food chain. Makovsky showed not so much that he isn't good bantamweight material, but that Benavidez still has the chops to gatekeep a division he simply will not win until Demetrious Johnson moves out, dies, retires, or starts eating like Johnny Hendricks does between fights.

I have no desire to see Benavidez fight for the strap a third time when his most recent title bid was even less compelling than the first. Benavidez finds himself in Chad Mendes territory in that Mendes lost twice to Aldo, and has lost to McGregor by stoppage (short notice taking the fight notwithstanding). Benavidez will probably beat anyone else in the division but no one other than his mom is clamoring for a third title fight with Mighty Mouse.

That Circunov guy? Jesus. Looking forward to seeing him blast some guys a bit reminiscent of the hulking Houston Alexander but with more patience, a more well-rounded game, but the same bonkers power, size, and athleticism. It wasn't a bad night of fights for free TV, but that card for a PPV even with Fabricio vs Cain II was very much pushing it in terms of asking fans to buy a sub par product.

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On to the upcoming betting lines. I like the line on Bisping vs Anderson. Anderson hasn't won a fight in nearly 3 years, October 2012 being the last time he actually won a fight, didn't break a leg, didn't get KTFO, and didn't fail a drug test for banned substances. How the mighty have fallen.....
Bisping has lost to guys with better wrestling mixed in with their striking, ala Rockhold, Kennedy et cetera. I think Anderson is also in Hendricks territory: "A king has his reign, then he dies." It is the natural order of things. I also like the line on Brad Pickett vs Francisco Rivera. Rivera has some losses to guys with styles suspiciously like Pickett: strong wrestling mixed in with competent stand-up skills (Lineker, Faber, and Mizugaki). I think it's a tight fight and Rivera did impress me in that fight with Urijah Faber, but I think Pickett's overall skillset and experience edges Rivera out in this one.

Pickett and Bisping are two the most live betting underdogs I see listed over the course of the next few events.
I'm curious to see Miocic face Werdum. I hate betting on HW fights, but I like Werdum's skillset. He's dangerous AF on the ground, has that tall frame and can use the Muay Thai clinch with knees up the middle because he doesn't fear getting taken down like most heavyweights. I'll wait to see what the line is on that fight, and I'm especially curious to see how the oddsmakers peg the younger Miocic against the aging champ Werdum. Werdum I think has a few wins left in him before he retires.

Jon Jones vs DC is another upcoming ? for me in some regards. I think Jon Jones even with his personal life what sounds like a trainwreck beat DC over the course of 5 rounds. That was DC's first time fighting a 5 round fight and rounds 4 and 5 were what got him. I thought he worked Jon Jones in the tie-up with his head positioning until he faded in the so called Championship rounds. It's an intriguing bet and another one that I'm curious to see what the betting lines look like when they're announced. 

Sunday, February 7, 2016

All the Leg Locks! Garry Tonon vs Rousimar Palhares

It's official for Polaris 3 assuming Palhares doesn't flake out. 
Fingers crossed. 

Bellator Signings & Upcoming UFC Fights

Benson Henderson and Chris Leben officially head to Bellator. It's the island of lost toys theory whereby you can scavenge value from remnants and creative viewer-friendly match-ups and Bellator has done this well. I tuned in to watch Tito vs
Bonnar.
I'll definitely tune in to watch Royce vs Ken. As long as Bellator stays on Cable TV I see no reason not to watch as my side piece/bottom &$@?! to often overpriced UFC PPV's/events that cease
to be PPV worthy when one fight blanks *ahem* UFC 196/Cain vs Fabricio. Dana long derided Boxing for its one fight cards but if the loss of one fight nixes your PPV....c'mon....

Cerrone returns against a Brazilian nicknamed Cowboy and Roan Carneiro faces Derek Brunson on the same card on Feb. 21st. I think this event top to bottom has far more fights of note than tonight's UFC 106 No More event. 
Also on the card, Lineker, Kawajiri, Thatch, Krause, and Bermudez all fight. It's a good night of guys fighting hard to edge out the pack as they're all midway through their divisions but not too tiered guys who've already gotten title shots. 
At the end of the months on the 27th, Bisping who complains about fighting cheaters fights Anderson Silva coming off a suspension (a rose by any other name...), Brad Pickett returns, and Thales Leites fights Gegard Mousasi. Again, guys midway through the pack with solid experience who will put on professional level bouts.

Friday, February 5, 2016

UFC Fight Night 82/UFC 196 No More - Gambling Picks & the Like - Wonderboy Vs Old Rig

Hendricks sounds like a broken record ever since losing his strap. He loses then admits his heart wasn't in it and that this time he really wants his belt back and blah blah blase. Not buying it. I'm not sold on Thompson as winning the belt but Hendricks has only unimpressed me since his fights with Lawler, not to mention the failing to make weight against Woodley debacle. He hasn't had the KO power since the surgery on his arm and that's what makes me think Thompson can survive some potential danger zones to do what he did to Ellenberger against the now semi-faded Hendricks. I think as lame as it sounds Thompsons movement and accuracy will trump Hendricks.
Speaking of fading, can't possibly pick Roy Nelson based on his last 5 losses I think it is.
Cavalcante of whom I am a fan hasn't impressed since porting over to the UFC and looks small in his division. Makovsky is a guy I think may down the line challenge for the belt and I think will improve each fight in the UFC. Borg is a guy who has also impressed me in small doses and I think also is a cut above other blood in his division.