Thursday, September 3, 2015

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 Gambling Picks

If the fight card has changed and these picks aren't exactly up to date I apologize.
I'm in the process of doing some adult-ing until the new year and won't be spending a ton of time blogging until then.
I'm doing my gambling picks for the coming months before I move and can't guarantee I'll be coming back to update them come fight time.

At any rate, it's free info and perspective, so take it for what it's worth.

I placed a parlay bet with Van Zant, Anthony Johnson, and Felder. All solid picks based on their match-ups that by themselves I don't see much money in wagering individually, but some change or decently tempting penny to go parlay and do a trio bet.

I don't see John Dodson winning this time or virtually any other than maybe Mighty Mouse getting old.
Mighty seems like too much a student of the game, a guy who lives his life like a nicer version of Marvin Hagler. He lives a clean, normal life, and won't succumb to the vices that typically age fighters as much outside the octagon as within it.

I think Demetrious wins via his startling ability to mix all the facets of mixed martial arts and presses for a late finish and gets it against an early and wily John Dodson.

Mir's 7 most clearcut losses were TKO/KO's. Arlovski's 17 notable wins are that specialty.
This is an easy HW version of striker vs grappler and don't let any forthcoming HL footage of that win over Duffy fool you.
Mir won't have that luck against Arlovski. I don't like betting HW fights but I may throw money at this one. I see the resurgence of Mir as of late as a fluke (though I'm sure people have been thinking that for years.
At any rate, the conventional wisdom/money should be on Arlovski.

Felder will be more active and batter the smaller, older, and more knockout-able Pearson.

Johnson will blast Manuwa out in a round or less and or put him against the cage, and donkey kong fist/pummel/hammerfist him into next year.

I like Rivera over Lineker who only looked good against guys he didn't make weight against. Rivera got that dynamite in his hands and looked great against Faber until the eye poke which I think is a big boost in his development mentally as a fighter. I think Lineker falters at this weight without the size advantage he enjoyed by fighting guys and not making weight.

Riggs looked terrible against Cote and Stallings looked great even in losing to Urijah Hall.
Easy fight to pick.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Semi-Hiatus

I'll be taking a break from posting (other than my gambling picks for some upcoming UFC bouts) until the new year.

I've had a good run of working part-time and training Jiu-Jitsu since March but the time has come to do some adult-ing for a good stretch. I will miss blogging and gambling on the fights but I have to be an adult for a good bit.

The blog will resume in regular frequency likely in December/January.
There's not a ton of blogs out there that cover Jiu-Jitsu (after you've been training for awhile you realize that) and the BJJ corner of the web is actually quite smile considering how many people train regularly.

At any rate, thanks for the readership up until this point, and big things lay ahead in the new year as I'll be in a larger hotbed of Jiu-Jitsu, and back at training and competing (and likely gambling on mixed martial arts) en force.

As they say at Unity when they slap hands "good training."
   

Friday, August 21, 2015

UFC Fight Night 74: Holloway vs Oliveira Gambling Picks


I'll start out by saying I don't plan to wager any cash on any of this card minus the Kyrlov/Lima fight.

I don't like betting on LHW fights and I don't like betting on fights like Holloway vs Oliveira. I don't bet on women's MMA fights because I don't watch enough women's MMA and the quality of opposition women face coming into the UFC is so hit or miss they're nearly impossible to tell as to how good they may or may not be against stiffer step ups the ladder.

Krylov/de Lima is the only fight I'm betting cash on, I use Bovada btw, haven't had any problems, and they seem slightly less shady than your other online options available (relatively speaking, of course). 

At any rate, below are my picks:

I think Oliveira's stand-up will wear down and batter Holloway ala McGregor's win over Holloway, but with Oliveira's better submission resume in MMA, I think he catches Holloway in later rounds desperately trying to get back to his feet due to being down on judge's scorecards on rounds.

Magny hasn't been KO'd before and due to his height, I doubt Erick Silva's winging wind up bombs will be the ones to put him down for the count, unless Magny is gunshy for takedowns after getting ruthlessly out-ground work'd by Demian Maia (that was a blowout).
The smart money for Silva is to take him down relentlessly. The sad reality is that Erick Silva would rather swing for the fences from round 1 than he would fight a smart gameplan (anyone remember that Dong Hyun Kim fight?)

I really don't like betting on this fight as the wide-swinging Silva style is tailor made to get tagged by Magny but Magny's groundwork is hellaciously suspect.

I see Krylov as undervalued. Sure, de Lima has come nice looking finishes to his credit in two UFC fights, but the strength of Krylov's resume I think speaks for itself. Krylov's only recent loss is to St. Preux, a guy who just fought former belt challenger Teixeira and though he was outclassed there, Preux is a beast.

I like Krylov in this fight and I like this line and it's the only one I'm betting cash dollars/money on personally.

I think Cote and Burkman will fight a terrible fight with Burkman winning because he's slightly less over the hill than Cote who I can't believe they're still giving fights to at this point.

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

My Visit to Renzo Gracie's Academy (Danaher, Tonon, Cummings et al)

Stopped in to train at Renzo's and was fortunate enough to take a class taught by the maestro himself, John Danaher. I'll reiterate something that still amazines me, in Jiu-Jitsu you can show up and literally take a class alongside or learn from notables in the sport, guys who are at the peak of competition form (much of the time). I trained at Unity and rolled with both Paulo and Joao (a current world champion and his brother who lost the world championship on a penalty). Craziness.

Facility had plenty of room for the ample number of people on the mat in both Gi and NoGi.

Class (for blue belts and above) began by open rolling/drilling of your choice, then Danaher taught an ouchigari takedown followed up by a counter to the stack pass. His class didn't disappoint as he made some points about body position and spine alignment that made a position we all know relatively well a bit more clear and defined in my mind.

Class concluded with the offering to start on the feet and continue to the mat or start on the ground depending on your volition.

I got to look over and see Garry Tonon and Eddie Cummings in their last training session before a shower and ride to the airport. 

Pretty cool stuff.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Throwback Tuesday: Superfight from Last Year

Video from my superfight (still hate that term) at the World Combat Federation's Bull City Brawl MMA event with the one and only Jeff Shaw of Dirty White Belt blog fame and notoriety.
7 minute purple belt match. Win by Ezekiel with just a few minutes left.


Friday, August 7, 2015

Grappling Confession: I don't like NoGi

I'm lazy.
I have to physically work harder and scramble more.

In terms of variety and comfortability, I prefer the Gi. Coming from Judo as my start in grappling I always will. That being said, if I'm being honest, the actual impediment to my liking NoGi is that I am lazy.

I rationally know that it's good for my game to learn more leg locks.
I rationally know that it's good for my game to have to use some athleticism and explosiveness and use different handles and grips than the Gi affords.
I rationally know it's good to roll NoGi and work submissions like head/arm chokes and guillotines that I normally don't in the Gi.




All of those things being said....the real reason I don't like NoGi is because I am lazy.
 

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Boxing, WSOF, & UFC 190 Hangover: Really Right or Totally Wrong (and some serious complaining)

Maia dragged Magny down even faster than I had bet.
Shogun looked sharp when he wasn't wobbled in the first.

Minotauro had Struve down but didn't keep him there.
Soa had Bigfoot about out from top half-guard punches and didn't press for the finish then took a hard uppercut in the 2nd and folded. I saw my money get up and walk out the door when Soa just leaned back against the cage and took those punches from "Pezao".

It's called gambling for a reason. Soa came out and looked more gunshy than I expected. He immediately took to taking poor half-asses shots/leg grabs and it worked in the first but he ate an uppercut looking at the ground in the 2nd.

On to my real beef with the broadcast:
So it's post 1am...and I'm finally getting the walkout for Rousey.
Let me preface by saying I spent my afternoon at a wedding in a suit and I was tired from the heat.
That being said, I almost never have a Saturday off to watch the fights and with money riding on the fights, I wanted to be excited and enjoy it.
By midnight, both my buddy and myself were routinely yawning.
Not one, but TWO Brazil TUF fights (a series literally almost NO ONE in the USA would have seen fight) stood between the beginning and the end of the main card.
It didn't help that Minotauro looked flat.
Bigfoot just sucked less than Soa.
The girl fight was everything about why I don't watch women MMA fights. This is main card women's MMA? Heralded, unheralded, whatever. It was a fight that might make for an entertaining amateur level scrap in men's MMA, and before you get butthurt, this is about equality. Women and others harp about equal pay, then we can't ignore the giant elephant in the room that is the quality of women's MMA fights is simply less.

Bigfoot seemed revived in the second and I guess that's a fight to watch. Minotauro did his best old Thomas the Train impression and though he took shots well his output wasn't high enough, he didn't have enough pop, Struve took shots that landed well and kept the fight where he needed to be. Minotauro seemed too weak to get Struve down (granted the dude is 7 ft. tall) and Rogerio simply didn't put together nearly enough volume to beat Shogun.

Rousey showed how astronomically far ahead he is of her division.
She's more dominant than Fedor. Fedor had occasional moments of vulnerability (Randleman, CroCop) that made his fights so thrilling. Also, the level of destruction he meted out was like watching slow-motion car crashes in compilation.
I'm not faulting Rousey for being so much better at fighting than apparently any other woman walking the earth, I'm just saying it's hard to be thrilled for 30 seconds of rock 'em sock 'em robots after I've been standing for over 3 hours and the main card was less than thrilling.

--
In other news, Malignaggi got stopped by a merciful referee, and Jake Shields got Kimura'd in a fight that may cost Palhares the belt. 
In other semi-related news, Nick/Nate Diaz got into a fracas with Khabib Nurmagomedov in Vegas.