Tuesday, March 5, 2019

UFC on ESPN+ in Wichita this Weekend: Lewis vs Dos Santos: Picks and Thoughts

Can Derrick Lewis survive 5 rounds with Dos Santos? Will be pull of yet another miraculous hail mary KO in the closing seconds of a fight he's totally lost? We'll find out.

Elsewhere on the card we've got some semi meaningful if not at least entertaining stylistic match-ups plus if nothing else, the Main Card starts at 8pm, thank God, because I was dying staying up to see that FIXED if I've ever seen one Jones/Smith fight last weekend.

Should be an entertaining slobberknocker for as long as it does or does not last. Anything has to be better than that Lewis/Ngannou non fight that happened, am I right? People keep picking against Lewis and he almost always pulls off the upset but this is very hard to not pick against him. I guess I'm gonna say Dos Santos is the pick, but I don't bet on HW fights.

Zaleski dos Santos finally gets co-main billing after a slew of entertaining AF bouts that I've seen of his and will face Curtis Millender. Millender has 3 wins in the past year or so of fighting against Thiago Alves, Max Griffin, and Siya Bahadurzada. Zaleski is a tier above those guys and should pick up an exciting stoppage win here in the 3rd round as he pours it on each of the 3 rounds wearing guys down even as he slows a tad from his impressive workrate. I love watching Zaleski fight. Each fight is what I want to see in MMA. Zaleski has only fought twice in the past year beating Vendramini and Strickland, neither entirely impressive names, but also had a deeper UFC win list of Nakamura, Akhmedov, Griffin (also), and Lyman Good before he got exiled for ye olde steroid pop. Zaleski will win this one in an entertaining scrap whether it goes the distance or not.

Beneil Dariush will face Drew Dober. Dariush after a promising start has seen him lose fights he was winning and get blown out in early goings against unknowns. It's been a rocky road as a fan of his because like Gunnar Nelson he has all the tools and the right camp to take him to the title. Dober has lost only 2x in the past 3-4 years, a guillotine loss to Efrain Escudero and an RNC loss to Oliver Aubin-Mercier. This suggests if Beneil doesn't stand too long trying his burgeoning Muay Thai skills he's honing at Kings MMA, he'll get to his neck and put Dober to sleep. Dober has a couple KO win's in fights over his UFC tenure but no one who's of high repute in their division.

Boetsch returns to face Akhmedov. Boetsch last fought coming up on a year ago against Antonio Carlos Jr. in a losing by submission effort. Before that it had been nearly a year since be beat up on a faded, still managed to miss weight in a weight class up Johnny Hendricks who must have an eating disorder with the way he's unable to now make weight regardless of weight class. Akhmedov has lost to anyone of note he's faced in the UFC (Zaleski dos Santos, Serginho Moraes, and Gunnar Nelson and decisioned anyone he's beaten. Boetsch is extremely durable (yes, I know, extremely overused in MMA parlance, but truly accurate for this guy). I see Boetsch beating him up 2 out of 3 rounds.

Means vs Price - Price was picking up steam before getting a win overturned due to those damn, derelict pesky marijuana metabolites. Price is coming off a loss to Abul Alhassan which was a fight he looked slow to start and got flattened. Prior to that he had 2 stoppage wins over Randy Brown & George Sullivan. I've always liked Niko's set of skill since his UFC debut and I'm hoping the Alhassan loss was an off night. I'm a say Price by submission.

Rothwell returns from steroid suspension to face Ivanov who debuted in about as tough as UFC debut as you can against Dos Santos. Talk about jumping into the shark tank of the UFC HW division. Ivanov lost about a year of his prime after getting stabbed by gangsters and nearly bleeding to death. Meanwhile in Russia....anyway, Rothwell has always had the size and reach to give many men trouble, as evidenced by his 10 finger tummy squash strangle of Josh Barnett awhile back. Ivanov has a mix of skills and I expect him to not BS around with Rothwell and force him to the mat 2 out of 3 rounds despite the danger that puts him in. Ivanov will get back on track here with a Decision win over another very tough HW contender.

Sergio Moraes is getting back on track after a KO loss to Usman (which seems less terrible given his title ascension). Moraes picked up a flawless submission win over Ben Saunders & Tim Means. He's also got wins over Ramos, Akhmedov, and Magny amongst others. He'll pick up a submission win here over this guy.


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