Thursday, December 24, 2020

Thoughts on 3CG, WNO, Sub Only" & Vague scoring criteria

 Watched the most recent WNO, and have watched others, and the inconsistency of the scoring for "sub only" as its termed just means no points are awarded and there is a vague sense of submissions versus positional grappling being awarded. The event with the Atos' Ruotolo brothers and Renzo's Nicky Ryan and Ethan Crelinsten comes to mind. I don't doubt that it went 1-1 across the two matches, but if Nicky lost due to positional dominance by one brother then Ethan should've won his match by asserting that same dominance and passing against the other brother. Watching the Maysa vs Grace match also came to mind. Granted, the match was close in the sense that neither really passed decisively, and the real danger of any foot locks or otherwise is debatable but, the lack of scoring points leads to at best subjective scoring, and at worst, the historically validated preferential treatment by judges/refs that has plagued the sport as a result of the myriad of those involved in scoring/reffing who have some affiliation by degrees of separation to someone's coach or teammate or even the competitor. 

Bias against leg locks and attacks or lack of information is apparent in the valuation of fake foot lock attacks to accrue attacks in F2W. Guys will spend 8 minutes (in the Gi in particular) cranking on a foot lock from 50/50 when there's minimal risk in said position. The IBJJF and the Oscar worthy toe hold in the waning seconds as the guy looks like he's in a bathhouse orgy scene springs to mind. I saw this not as an indictment against "sub only" but rather that longer match duration and not scoring points leaves an even more prone to interpretation decision-making criteria that is likely not consistent across 3 judges. I thought Thor won the match against Rocha. Rocha passed one time, briefly, and otherwise was largely stymied in passing due to various leg lock attempts and entries. If a top player finds himself withdrawing from contact, butt to mat, and fleeing away from his opponent, the attempt to disengage should function at least comparable to an opponent turtling to avoid a guard pass. I appreciate the removal of points to encourage more submission attempts, but much like wrestling and Judo have implemented, actually using stalling calls creates urgency on the part of competitors, or forces a decision to play it safe at the risk of losing or being DQ'd. 

I appreciate the value to having different rule sets across grappling styles, and even within the same sport. ADCC forces most serious entrants to work on their wrestling and backtakes. Sub only forces more diligence with leg entanglements and overtime positions. Points awarding formats force positional awareness and the importance of scoring first. 

No time limit sub only feels the least compelling. Sure, competitors can take more chances, but by the 20-30 min mark, it is often a war of attrition with less and less action occurring. BJJ Bishop did a great breakdown of the finish rate and win rate relative to scoring and match length (back when the Abu Dhabi Pro instituted short match lengths in an effort to encourage more action and less stalling). What it showed was that changing the match length from 10 minutes (IBJJF) to 6 minutes (Abu Dhabi Pro) even at the black belt level had little effect on the % of matches that ended in submission. What did change was that the percentage of impact the first score had on predicting the winner of the match rose. IE: first score in a shorter match is a much likelier indicator of winning than in a longer match. 

Submission Underground has a truly short 5 minute regulation with no points, then overtime. From a spectator standpoint, it keeps matches visually more attune to a casual fan base (ala why he uses more MMA fighters with name recognition et cetera), but add to that the cage and you end up with some matches where guys cage wrestle and stand on the feet for 5 minutes, then it's Overtime. If a competitor chooses to disengage, they can easily run down the better part of 5 minutes, even in a cage, particular when you add in clinch/wrestling, and/or against a seated opponent. 

I've competed in a lot of 5 minute points matches at Grappling Industries in the past 3 years. I've also done a lot of EBI format events. I also did an EBI Overtime only format event this past year. Overall, the more I do sub only events, the less engaging I find them. If at it's core, JiuJitsu is a combat sport, the idea that an opponent can be mounted for 7 minutes, have their back taken, escape bunch of leg entanglements seems self-defeating. Given that few submissions statistically come in the 8-10 minute mark, if you're doing a 16 man bracket, the draw/pools determining who faces who and in what order has a more signifcant impact on the event as it wears on. 

I did the SoGI -155 Pro bracket this Fall, and by the finals, I had something like 34 minutes of mat time, with two matches going to OT. My first match went 10 minutes regulation, then 6 OT rounds, and I won on ride time. My 2nd match I finished via heel hook in -1 min. My third match went 10 minutes regulation then I won by RNC in the 4th OT round. The finals I lost in regulation roughly 4-5 mins in. I say this not to place blame, but rather as examining the format and looking for meaning in determining regulation duration versus OT rounds et cetera. 

I'm all for the purist part of JiuJitsu which at its core is a blend of positional dominance and/or resultant submission. I (probably because I fought MMA and played Judo for 10 years) appreciate the utilization of stalling calls to force engagement. A lot of what is passed off as being technical and other silly terms commentators use (because of the hero worship in JiuJitsu) is actually just guys doing as little as possible or avoiding danger. 

There's a fine line between using position to score points and ride out the remainder of time or relentlessly spamming leg attacks with no potential of finishing, in the sense that they are both artificial and disingenuous. As events compete for viewership or simply offer content for fans, it's interesting to see the resulting skills and game plans change. 

Thompson vs Neal Fight Night Aftermath: Thompson stifles, Aldo Sustains, Pettis Absconds

The card was better than a fair share of PPV's I've seen with Thompson doing much less fleet of foot retreating, and punching some stamp on his punches before circling off and backing out. I expected some more high kicks over the course of 5 rounds, but forgoing them prob kept Neal from having any opportunity to put Thompson on his back and wear on him with ground and pound. Neal blamed a clash of heads for obscuring his vision but nothing I saw in the first 2 rounds suggested that he was going to land many if any clean power shots to hit the always mobile trap-setting Thompson. I've been exceedingly critical of Thompson in the past after fights like Woodley 1 & 2 and Masvidal, but he fought his kind of fight without being boring or gun shy this time around. I think he's aware those kinds of performances will get you persona non grata and certainly KO any shot of another title shot. Thompson will always be superbly hard to beat as he retreats behind his ability to throw danger and goad you into trying to bull him. He can beat the Geoff Neal's and Vicente Luque's of the welterweight division. 

The only guys above him in the rankings now are Masvidal (NO ONE WANTS TO SEE A REMATCH), Covington, Burns, and Usman. Usman is slated to face Burns but it's been cancelled twice, and I expect Usman to milk more time out of delaying if I'm being completely honest. He did the same thing with Covington belaboring negotiations, saying he needed surgery, then not, then needing it et cetera. I'd honestly like to see Thompson fight Edwards as that makes the most linear sense, but Edwards is slated to face surging number 15 stay busy and crush cans Khamzat. That leaves Thompson the ignoble choices beneath him such as Chiesa or Magny if he wishes to stay busy and relevant. His previous abysmal title fights may continue to haunt him in terms of booking, unless he takes on whoever loses the Burns/Usman fight. Burns really does strike me as someone who will fight anyone, Usman, does not. 

Pettis is now gone from the UFC. Wild, as I guess he's fought basically everyone there is to fight, and to continue fighting between 145, 155, and 170 against the lesser known, lower tier guys doesn't seem to interest him in the long term. The depth of his resume is so comically and absurdly deep that it is frankly mind blowing. Everyone from Nate Diaz to Cerrone to Jim Miller, to Benson Henderson to Poirier, Holloway, Oliveira, Alvarez, Chiesa, and Ferguson....He will be missed, but I guess he likes the idea of the PFL tournament, and after hopping through 3 different weight classes and catchweight bouts in his career, why not try to win a cool million for his efforts. 

Aldo showed why he still has the tools to punish most guys not named Holloway or Volkanovski or Petr Yan. He's another Pettis scenario where you can give him mid or lower level guys simply because he's fought basically everyone else. The gameplan to beat Aldo is seemingly known as guys like Holloway, Petr Yan, and Volkanovski have shown, but other than a handful of elite fighters, most guys will simply not be able to corner him, back him up, or force him to make many mistakes without getting battered across 3 rounds. I'd love to see him fight Rob Font (though I think this is a 50/50 for him) or Cody Garbrandt, but Garbrandt seems intent on still fighting for the 135 belt, so hopefully we see Aldo face Sandhagen or Font. I think Sandhagen has the type of pressure forward style that will not be good for Aldo, particularly across 5 rounds, but Sandhagen coming off of his 1st round submission by Aljamain may take a fight with Aldo to stay near the top ranking and show he deserves a title shot should Aljamain beat Yan. If Aljamain loses to Yan, it's actually better for Aldo as them fighting makes more sense than Aldo fighting Petr Yan so soon after losing to him. 

Monday, December 14, 2020

UFC 256: Stoppages Galore - Figueiredo vs Moreno & et all Fallout

 

Jacare vs Holland - akin to that Niko Price KO of Randy Brown from off of his back, Holland wobbled Jacare off his back then popped up and put him away. Folks are saying Jacare should retire, and yes he's 0-3 in his last 3 fights, but it was a spit decision loss to a guy who now has the belt at LHW, a decision loss to Hermannson other than this stoppage loss to Holland. Prior to that he put away Gastelum, dropped a decision to Gastelum and put away Derek Brunson et cetera. A tough patch having fought most of his UFC career against the upper echelon of the division is hardly cause for retirement. What's always worried me about his last few years has been the lack of notable training partners/camps I've seen him working with, but alas, you can't make anyone do anything. 

Oliveira vs Ferguson - it's also easy to write of Ferguson after the beating he took at the hands of Gaethje and being largely controlled by Oliveira (a guy with plenty of submission wins to his credit). Oliveira with his polished striking, deep resume of tough opposition and veterans, was going to be a stern test for anyone. I don't see this as much that Ferguson doesn't have it anymore, just that Oliveira put together the pieces of his game more cogently. 

Gane vs Dos Santos - Gane played his kicking heavy game to harass, touch, and keep Dos Santos at bay, and as the rounds wore on and Dos Santos knew he was under the gun for a decision, Gane waited for Dos Santos to pull away off angle and landed some devastating elbows over the top. A patient, diverse striker, Gane will have the tools (kicking) to give a number of HW's trouble, but I'd be curious to see him fight a Blaydes or another polished HW wrappler. Oleinik would be a stern test for him across 3 rounds. Hilariously enough, he's actually got a heel hook win at HW in the UFC in his 2nd UFC fight, and won his UFC debut via arm triangle. 

Fiziev vs Moicano - Moicano paid the same price Pineda paid: he F'd around on the feet too long with a guy with heavy, accurate hands, and got clipped pulling away from a punch in combination. Moicano has been my dark horse to earn a belated title shot but hopefully he comes away from this fight a bit more dedicated to playing a bit more close to the vest in the striking exchanges. 

Hooper vs Barrett  - it's been said by many other pundits, man needs to polish his striking and wrestling if he intends to do more than win a few lower tier fights via submission and get CTE from striking battles against the toughter guys in the division and better wrestlers. 

Swanson vs Pineda - Pineda believed a bit too much in his own hype or experience, either way he dicked around on the feet too long against a guy with a ton of stoppage wins. Pineda had the winning game plan with the chopping knee and calf kicks, but slowed down a tad, and Swanson seized on the traps he'd been setting from the earlier exchanges. 

Figueiredo vs Moreno - it's a big plus for the division that a FOTY was a flyweight scrap and that the guys came off of making weight 21 days ago to do fisticuffs. Moreno showed that Figueiredo potentially slows across 5 rounds, and gives up body lock takedowns as he comes streaking forward in a linear striking combination. Both guys gave up the first half of the 5th round, and I figured who ever got a big takedown would take the fight, and it was the champ who got a draw from that last hip toss. Moreno should come away knowing that he has the gameplan to potentially beat the champ, and if he cleans up some striking in bunches, and chains together a bit more wrestling and keeping the wily Figueiredo down afterward long enough to land some strikes, he can take 3 of the 5 rounds.