Friday, July 31, 2015

8 Random Grappling-Related Thoughts this Week

1) I learn a fundamental but somehow mindblowing basic concept every time I watch Marcelo Garcia roll. 
example: I watched him rolling NoGi with Marcos Torregrosa and from bottom, I realized/recognized Marcelo is always controlling hands/wrists, or the head if it comes low, and if the butterfly sweep misses he opens up the heel hook/lacing one leg through.
It's super simple in concept, and basic, except for the fact that he does it at such a high level....he does it to virtually every single person he rolls with. 

2) Watching Ronda grapple and mix up her stand-up and mat work is truly seamless. Her transitions between throws to then dominating her opponents on the mat is truly fluid in motion. She literally must find herself in positions with her hands, or squeeze or whatever already locked in where it needs to be without being consciously aware. 

3) Interested to (hopefully) watch Minotauro potentially submit another giant of a human being in Stefan Struve with his Jiu-Jitsu he's used to submit notables like Bob Sapp and Semmy Schilt.

4) I was fortunate enough to roll with the Miyao brothers and visit Unity Jiu-Jitsu and now I'll watch Joao face Garry Tonnon Sunday as part of the Five Grappling Super League event. 

5) Whatever I thought was hard training at blue belt, was nothing compared to how much I train at purple belt. Whatever I thought was hard training at purple belt is absolutely minute in comparison to what I saw the Miyao brothers doing at Unity during my visit. They literally eat, sleep, and breathe Jiu-Jitsu. It is staggering to watch them train. 

6) I have days where I look at the scope of Jiu-Jitsu and see how hopelessly complex the alphabet and dictionary/encyclopedia of moves is. I have other days where I see the precision that comes with practice and rolling and how much more efficient you can learn to do a relatively small set of moves or a sequence and how effortless part(s) of your game can become with dedicated, hard, training day in and day out.

7) I hate NoGi training because I am lazy and because I have to roll much harder with less places to pause in NoGi. I have to work harder and rely less on grip and more on squeeze with less places to pause. But, I've learned to like NoGi because I work other parts of my game less emphasized like guillotines, head/arm chokes, and a much more fluid game with some more wrestling thrown in. It's a good bet that because I find myself more frustrated in NoGi that means I'm being forced to learn/step outside of my comfort zone at a higher rate than in the Gi. 

8) Jiu-Jitsu helped save my life. By itself, it hasn't saved me from my personal struggles and problems, but my love for Jiu-Jitsu has helped make me a more humble, dedicated person, willing to simply show up day after day and believe that if I keep coming back, things will get better. 


Combat Sports Weekend: UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia & Other Questionable Picks & Prognostication(s)


It's a pretty entertaining Combat Sports weekend coming up folks. "Honda Housey" will batter a loud-mouthed challenger who beat some of her stablemates. Paulie Malignaggi will fight in boxing, Jake Shields will leg lock it up with Palhares in a fight I've been looking forward to since it was announced ,AND the Five Grappling Super League event takes place Sunday at 2pm PST.


I'm 11-3 overall for my picks across the last two UFC events.
I'll be working Friday and Saturday night but will have my picks in with Draft Kings and be surreptitiously following the fights between serving inebriated adults, then waking up to hit open mats during the day.

Having seen the holes in her game exposed by Shayne Baszler, I have a hard time seeing even betting the underdog and putting money on Correia against Rousey.
This is just a colossal mismatch.
Correia lacks the power to hurt Rousey, even a Rousey from early in her career, and having seen Rousey's improved stand-up, and every increasing polish....this will be a wash. It really will be like watching a shark pick apart a floating corpse on the surface until the feeding frenzy takes over.

Whether it's backing up into the cage, lack of punching power, how quickly Correia found herself in armbar-territory in Baszler's guard, I'm honestly not even going to bother watching the rest of her fights to cement my pick of Ronda by however quickly she decides to seize whatever hole Correia gives her first. 

It's honestly that lopsided, folks.

As for Shogun vs Lil Nog and Minotauro vs Struve...this is all about picking who is less shopworn.

Shogun is 6-8 in the UFC. But, that bears keeping in mind he's fought: Gustaffson, Henderson (twice), Machida (twice), Chuck Liddell, Mark Coleman, Brandon Vera, St. Preux, Te Huna, Chael Sonnen, and Forrest Griffin. Some guys weren't top contenders, some guys were on the rise, some were legends on the way out, but he's fought only former champs or guys moving up and guys with wins in the UFC.

Lil Nog debuted in the UFC beating two guys who are no longer with the organization, then beating Tito Ortiz and Rashad Evans, but losing to the likes of Anthony Johnson, Phil Davis, Ryan Bader.

On the strength or resume comparison, you have to give it to Shogun. But on the mileage-o-meter, Lil Nog has taken less devastating beatings than Shogun. That being said, Shogun, back with Cordeiro (long time trainer) I have little problem placing my money on Shogun. 
Sidenote:  Seeing Shogun crushed by Jon Jones will always be one of the darkest nights of my MMA viewing career. I was devastated.

Minotauro vs Struve:
Struve is coming off of two crushing losses to the likes of Overeem and Mark Hunt (not that he's alone on that list of guys) and has wins over the likes of Stipe Miocic, Herman,  and Pat Barry,
Minotauro is coming off a KO loss to Roy Nelson and a submission loss to now current champion Werdum (that loss to Mir by submission I chalk up to being dazed but also arrogance).
He holds wins over the likes of Dave Herman, Schaub, Randy Couture, and Tim Sylvia from whom he won the belt. Strength of resume has me believing he'll finish the gangly and lengthy Struve when he drags him to the mat as Nog did against the lengthy Tim Sylvia.
I don't see how oddsmakers don't see this, but it's one of those fights I perceive them as picking all wrong and upon which I intend to make a fair amount of $$.

Maia vs Magny:
Maia's only lost to guys with last names like Shields, MacDonald, Munoz, and Weidman.
I'll just leave it at that. It's not always exciting or devastating or pretty, but Maia will control and positonally dominate Magny unless he gets caught early. Not a hard fight to pick at this point. That being said, seeing Maia no longer finish lesser opponents further down the totem pole, I am worried one of these fights will be the tipping point and he'll start the deeper slide into irrelevance.

Cummins vs Cavalcante: 
Cummins talked his way into the UFC with a wrestling story about Daniel Cormier, but hey, whatever works man, y'know? At any rate, he looked nervous and over his head in that bout, but since then hasn't looked bad with good power in his punches and wrestling to back it up but that he hasn't used in the fights I've bothered to watch on various undercards. At any rate, Cavalcante despite his success in other promotions (and a KO win over Yoel Romero years back) has had mixed results in the UFC and so I have to side with Cummins in this fight by decision or a blowout in the first or second round with a barrage of punches. Despite his gorilla-like build, I've always felt Cavalcante looked undersized for this division and Cummins looks positively huge at this weight class.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Select Pre-Fight Facts to Support my UFC 190 Picks/Prognostication(s)

From MMAJunkie:

"Rua enters the event with just one victory in his past five fights. He was stopped inside the distance in three of those losses."
BUT
"Rua has suffered nine of his 10 defeats to fighters who once held or challenged for a UFC title."


"Struve holds just one UFC victory over a fighter who’s still with the organization. The nine competitors he’s defeated have a 20-27 record with the UFC."

"Struve has suffered all five of his UFC losses by knockout."

"Nogueira’s seven armbar submission victories in UFC/PRIDE/Strikeforce/WEC competition are tied with Rousey for the most in the combined history of the four organizations."

"Antonio Silva (18-7-1 MMA, 2-4-1 UFC) enters the event with just two victories in his past eight bouts. He’s winless in his past four octagon appearances and hasn’t registered a victory since February 2013."

"Silva has suffered six of his seven career losses by knockout. All six of those stoppages have come in the first round."
"Soa Palelei (22-4 MMA, 4-2 UFC) has earned all 22 of his career victories by stoppage. “The Hulk” has recorded his past 12 victories by knockout."


"Maia’s 48 takedowns landed in UFC competition are the 12th most in modern company history. His 156 takedown attempts at third most in UFC history."
"Maia is 14-2 in UFC bouts in which he lands at least one takedown."
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Tuesday, July 28, 2015

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia Countdown Special, Shogun vs Lil Nog, Minotauro vs Struve


Aug 2nd, Five Grappling Super League Preview & Prognostication(s)

I'll be working late Friday and Saturday night, then wake up, hit open mat to train then be somewhere to watch this PPV. I can't wait. 

This Sunday, 2pm PST, we get a Miyao/Tonon Rematch and Otavio Sousa vs Keenan Cornelius in superfights ala ADCC-similar rules then two winner take all brackets with a ton of Jiu-Jitsu male AND female notables.
I was fortunate enough be training at Unity when some filming was going on for Murilo Santana and the Miyaos (and by that I mean I was rolling in my Gi with other guys while they were training.
I have no doubt Tonon trains like a madman (based on what I've heard) and I've seen firsthand how hard the Miyaos train.

Stylistically, I'm interested to see Tonon's leg lock/wrestling style attack game face off against Miyao's very Jiu-Jitsu-centric submission style. They really are two very different styles. It's also a match-up pitting Tonon and his time with John Danaher versus Unity Jiu-Jitsu and Murila Santana's thinktank partnered with the Miyao brothers. 
Tonon has improved considerably since their last encoutner with his skills then drastically improving and Miyao has been facing only the best competing in the Gi in the interim as well.
I'll go with Miyao by position in the points duration of the match after some close calls with Miyao in the first ten minutes of the match.

It's hard for me to see Otavio beating the larger Keenan. I'll just leave it at that. I see Keenan subbing Otavio late in the submission only duration of the match or at best, during the points duration getting a triangle/armbar combination.

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Monday, July 27, 2015

UFC 190 Extended Preview: Rousey vs Correia & Shogun vs Lil' Nog

Excited to see Demian Maia back in action on the undercard.
Also interested-ish to see who has fared better in the ten years since they squared off: Shogun or Lil' Nog. To be sure, both guys have lost their polish and have absorbed considerable mileage, but still a fight to watch, no doubt.


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I haven't seen the betting lines, but if there's money on Antonio Silva I see him getting KO'd unless he shows up looking like he's on the sauce. He literally looked like a shell of his former B level fighter self without TRT exemption last time and I don't see why this will be different unless he says *&^% it and fights knowing he'll get popped, and retires.
I don't have a lot of skin in this card as I'll be at a wedding during the day/evening then working my other job that night. It's kinda hard to see this as a PPV card with 2 of the main card match-ups being from the Brazil TUF that no one here but the hardest of hardcore fans even bothered to illegally pirate in order to watch. Big Nog vs Struve? Shogun and Lil' Nog rematching 5+ years too late?
Rousey beating the last semi-legitimate contender in her division?
This is a PPV card now for upwards of $50.

Hard to sell.

main CARD Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia for women's bantamweight title
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Mauricio Rua
Fernando Bruno vs. Glaico Franca "TUF: Brazil 4" lightweight tournament final
Dileno Lopes vs. Reginaldo Vieira "TUF: Brazil 4" bantamweight tournament final
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Stefan Struve
Soa Palelei vs. Antonio Silva
Jessica Aguilar vs. Claudia Gadelha
preliminary CARD FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Neil Magny vs. Demian Maia
Rafael Cavalcante vs. Patrick Cummins
Warlley Alves vs. Nordine Taleb
Iuri Alcantara vs. Leandro Issa
preliminary CARD UFC Fight Pass, 7 p.m. ET
Clint Hester vs. Vitor Miranda
Guido Cannetti vs. Hugo Viana

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Lose the Underhook? Attack the Knee! Attack the feets!

 Found this over at BJJ News!

With the advent of guys hunting for outside half-guard or you simply make a mistake and lose the underhook battle, here's a solid, basic, funamental series to pursue. I use the backstep almost immediately upon losing the underhook battle because I've learned the hard way from that position the power of the outside half-guard. I also like positions and moves/series I can train without necessarily telling my training partners. To practice this, all I have to do is pressure the knee through/slice pass, and allow him to do good Jiu-Jitsu which is win the underhook battle.
I'll be trying this out this weekend in live rolling.