UFC Yaaaaaaas Fight Island 3 Results: Whitaker Edges, Werdum Werdums, et al

Whitaker looked nervous early on, but picked up the timing and found his jab, and edged out Till. Till was setting traps with his feints and distance control and streaking forward, but Whitaker didn't bite on any big feints, and found his range and workrate as the rounds wore on. It doesn't diminish Till's stock much at Middleweight as Whitaker is a former champ with wins over a Hall of Fame worthy resume, and if anything, fighting 5 rounds in his newfound weightclass I suspect is more of a net gain for his career and confidence as opposed to short sightedly seeing it as a loss or suggestive as an overall assessment of his place in the division as a whole.

Werdum snatched up a single leg, hit a trip, and despite some neary escapes by Gustaffson, the ADCC champ did as was expected once he had the back: transitioned to an armbar and took his time, working toward the wrist and extricating the arm to get a first round submission.

Shogun edged out Lil Nog over 3 rounds to make his record against him 3-0 in a fight that I guess was a legacy to pay Lil Nog one last time before he probably retires. He's something like 2-8 in his last 10 fights, and as much as I support paying legends money in the twilight of their career, watching these 2 hurt one another was at times hard for me watch. They're adults, and every fighter gets to do this as long as they'd like, but it's a fine line between consenting adults and cosigning shopworn fighters to pad a main event card.

Paul Craig did what he likes to do which is chain together submissions as soon as his back hits the mat. He briefly looked for a guillotine to counter a single leg takedown, locked up a Mir lock/keylock from open guard. He went to feet on hips, overhooking one arm and palm-posting on the bicep and shot his long ass legs up, with some adjustments, continued to cinch in the triangle from bottom, ultimately getting another submission to add to his record.

Chimaev came true to his word and picked up a second stoppage win inside of about 2 weeks. He had his hands locked around his opponent within 13 seconds, dragged him to the mat, used the Dagestani handcuff grip to transition between top, back, and mount while landing punches, ultimately leading to a TKO inside of round 1. Glad to see a prospect fast tracking himself with some quick stoppage wins in succession to get himself apart from the rest of the relatively unknown guys at his tier in the weight class. 

UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs Till - Picks & Predictions

Whittaker vs Till: Whitaker has done something Till hasn't: he faced Romero twice and came away the victor. The larger question is what effect did that have on him long term. Till for his own part was stopped by Masvidal and Woodley (both welterweights) and fought a cautious fight against Gastelum. For all his bluster, Till doesn't always fight as the aggressive juggernaut he claims to be. His fight with Stephen Thompson and the Woodley fight show that he is largely unable and unwilling to lead. Whitaker isn't afraid to lead (he had to do so with Romero who looks to conserve energy over the course of the fight and blitz his way to success intermittently. The question is how intelligently does Whittaker lead the dance and the answer is probably just fine. Romero is as dangerous a fight as there is in any division on the feet due to his willingness to fight and ugly, boring fight but also blitz with a flying knee or whatever after lulling you into boredom for most of a round. I'm concerned about the damage toll of those 5 round fights with Romero but also suspect that Whittaker is smart enough to navigate the counter-striking of Till and if Woodley and Masvidal can put Till away, I have no doubt that Whittaker can hurt him and finish him as well. Whittaker's only semi recent loss other than Adesanya is to Wonderboy Thompson back in 2014 but given the number of strikers and heavy hitters he's faced since then I don't think Till can use that fight as an indicator of expected outcome. I pick Whittaker by TKO in round 3.

Lil Nog vs Shogun: God knows how this fight will go as both guys having such wildly intermittent success and loss in the UFC. Lil Nog has fought 8 times since 2011 compiling a record of 4-4 with wins over Tito Ortiz (yep), Rashad Evans, Cummins, and Alvey and dropping losses to Spann, Bader, Rua, and Rumble Johnson. Shogun has 13 times since late 2011 and compiled a record of 5-7-1. Shogun has fought most of the people of any era in any promotion worth fighting. Shogun has wins over Dan Henderson, Pedro, Lil Nog, Te Huna, Anderson and has dropped fights to Gustaffson, Anthony Smith, OSP, Dan Henderson etc.

Shogun and Lil Nog alike both have the ability to stop and be stopped by one another. This fight is a pick 'em to me as both guys are still dangerous and crafty as veteran professional fighters but their mileage is the likely determinant in the outcome of this fight. I will go with Lil Nog due to less accumulated damange since their initial fight.

Gustaffson vs Werdum: Interesting. Seeing Werdum fade against the plodding march you down style of Oleinik (I say that as a huge fan of Oleinik) doesn't bode well for a fleet of foot Gustaffson who can work off his jab and we know fight for 5 rounds. How well Gustaffson carries extra weight for 3 rounds could have him looking like OSP in that fight awhile back, but I don't think that's the case. I think Gustaffson jabs his way to a decision over the course of 3 rounds.

UFC Fight Night 172: Figueiredo Becomes Flyweight King, Gastelum Taps, Kneebars...et al

What a night of finishes: we had a heel hook, a kneebar counter to a calf-slicer, a TKO, a guillotine, and a triangle amongst a solid night of fights.

Hermannson showed by the basics of leg lock defense still matter, the women's flyweight match-up produced one of the most serious kneebar finishes I've seen in MMA, and Figueiredo showed that he's a flyweight who can stop even the very best at flyweight in exciting fashion (that critique of flyweights we often hear).

Askarov utilized wash/rinse/repeat takedowns and forward pressure to take a decision even though Pantoja got to his back in two of the rounds. I suspect that third round was the dealbreaker but I was bummed to see Pantoja not given credit for his continual submission attacks throughout the fight.

Moreno is the obvious title defense for Figueiredo with Perez lagging close behind. All of these top 5 flyweights are exciting to be honest, and I honestly don't care who gets first crack at Figueiredo as they'll all produce exciting fights.

Arman Tsarukyan picked up a win over Davi Ramos as an increasingly frustrated Ramos proved unable to deal with the footwork and work rate of Arman. Ramos tried the sticking his chin out and the dropping his hands, but even when Arman would dart into range, Ramos proved largely unable to cleanly tag his opponent, nor was he willing to shoot many if any meaningful takedowns at range. It's hard to side with an upset fighter that did the same thing for  rounds against a guy who you knew would likely engage in this gameplan, but also, Arman put Ramos on his back in the first round, and actually stayed down with Ramos so Ramos had an early going opportunity to do his thing without the accumulated sweat of multiple rounds, and was largely ineffective.

Hermannson is 7-3 in his previous 10 UFC fights with losses only to Feirera, Thiago Santos, and Jarod Cannonier. Gastelum is by far his biggest win to date but has also notched wins over Jacare, Leites, Meerschaert, and others. I still worry as to his chances against the dangerous strikers of which there are several in this division.

Work in Progress Foot & Leglock Ideas from my Finishers 12 Superfight

Been tying together some new things I worked on during the Covid-induced break from competing. Sub Only is a preferable way to try some new attacks in that I'll have 8 minutes of regulation where losing some points to position or a guard pass won't be the end of the world. If you're not trying to get the finish from less than ideal places in submission only format, I don't know where else you're going to go for it under duress. Seeing guys do F2Win or other non-scoring formats and attempt zero submissions is comical.

There's a fair amount to unpack here as I was employing some basic/known leg dig out entries from bottom but also utilizing the shallow/Musumeci hook behind my opponent's right knee. The risk of the backstep in NoGi (and Gi tbh) against a standing opponent is higher than with single leg X or some other more conventionally used hooks, but later in the match I adjusted and caught his free foot and utilized it to sweep/force an off-balance/stumble to negate this risk. Another counter to a standing passer when they are looking to backstep is to thread the free leg behind the knee and lace from there on the initial backstep attempt, I just and followed to hunt for a short ankle lock belly down style.

I close out the clip with some time spent in Splurgeo/Sergio Hernandez guard. There are toe hold options from there that combined with sweeps are effective as they protect their foot from the known threat of the hoe hold. The sequence ended with me lacing the legs/inside sankaku but being pinned down flat on my side and unable to finish digging out the leg/elevate him to then attack the heel et cetera.

UFC on ESPN+30: Figeuiredo vs Benavidez, Gastelum vs Hermannson Predictions

It's time for Benavidez to get one last belt shot. The guy has outlasted virtually the entire division at this point, and if this isn't the time, I don't know what to say. I don't know that this fight will end much differently than the previous one TBH, ans Figueiredo has less mileage and less years on him. Behind them though are a bunch of tough, dangerous, younger guys with considerably experienced (Moreno and Perez have 42 fights worth of experience between the two of them) fighters and Askarov and Pantoja who fight on the same card and have 36 fights of experience between the two of them. Winning the belt in this division seems like just the first step in looking to cement a legacy as there are 3-5 guys all dangerous that are waiting to dethrone whoever takes it this weekend.
My prediction is Figueiredo by stoppage in the 4th or 5th round.

Gastelum vs Hermannson:
It's a simple read, I don't see Hermannson giving Gastelum the trouble his previous opponents have as Hermannson it just not that dangerous to Gastelum. I hate being this confident about a fight but I just can't see how Hermannson hangs with Gastelum the way Till or Romero or Weidman did. This is such a huge jump up in opponent level for Hermannson. His wins over Leites, Branch, and Souza not withstanding, I don't see Gastelum having to fight at any range of the fight that he doens't want to, and if Cannonier could put Hermannson out, I can't imagine a fight where Gastelum doesn't do the same.

Lower on the card we have Davi Ramos facing Arman Tsarukyan. Ramos is coming off of a loss to Islam Makhachev. It's been frustrating to watch Ramos neglect to have the conditioning to force the fight to the mat where he has the obvious advantage over many opponents. He's been content to kickbox much longer in fights than I would ever expect which is mindblowing to me. He's 4-2 in the UFC with 3 of those wins coming via RNC. Tsarukyan seems a bit more versatile on the feet as he has a head kick KO win and a Spinning back kick + punches win (thanks for the description Sherdog!). He had submission wins earlier on in his career but it's very hard to gauge the level of competition in looking at records of events from abroad (and even regional level events stateside). I was super excited for Ramos coming into the UFC but he seems to have either had to manage his energy level judiciously in fights due to the weight cut or some other unexplained unwillingness to clinch at times that has me concerned for this fight. I could see Arman with a greater striking skillset content to pick Ramos apart as they move around the cage and picking up a unanimous decision, unfortunately. 

Hump Day UFC on ESPN 13: Kattar vs Ige, Tim Elliott, and Others climb the ladder

Benoit vs Elliott:
Benoit seemed willing to backpedal and pick his shots in the first round and primarily backpedal. In the second round, he shot in a takedown and was reversed via guillotine and mounted but avoided much damage from bottom position. Benoit also managed to use butterfly guard to get in a solid kneebar attempt which had Elliott grimacing and with some clearer striking as Elliott waded in hands down and head bobbing, the second round probably went to Benoit by a clear margin. I was perplexed to see the tweets coming in with Elliott down rounds as it was only the 2nd round that was clearly for him, and even then, with the guillotine to mount vs the kneebar, you could make the case for either fighter taking the 2nd round. Benoit seems unwilling to jab his way forward into range and rather needs to plant his feet to strike and against a veteran with erratic movement like Elliott, he wasn't able to pull the trigger when Elliott was in front of him, and Elliott isn't unhittable as anyone who's seen him fight can attest. Elliott picked up the win, but it doesn't raise his stock toward a title shot as Benoit has alternated wins and losses virtually his entire UFC run. Elliott just inked a new UFC deal which he says him for being professional and a company man. He'll have to clean up his taking chances style ever so slightly if he wants to make a legitimate run at the belt, which is now wide open at 125 as Figueiredo vs Benavidez will soon settle the clash of headbutts questionable stoppage and weight miss debacle in their last outing. It doesn't really matter who wins the belt for Elliott as he has losses to each of them (Benavidez in 2014 by submission and Figueiredo by submission in 2019). Elliott will have to pick off some the likes of Moreno, Pantoja, and Perez as the top ranked guys not slated to fight for the belt soon which is actually good for him as he hasn't previously fought them and they'll need a dance partner with a solid resume to vie for a rationale to give them a title fight. 

Rivera vs Stammann:
Rivera simply outworked Stamman who spent much more time backing up than I've seen in previous fights. He seemed wary of fatiguing in the first 2 rounds but by then was probably down on the scorecards anyway. It wasn't a breakout performance for either guy, as Rivera just outworked him with some jabs and kicks, and by pressing him against the cage and fighting for more takedowns. Rivera has only lost to Yan, Moraes, and Aljamain Sterling, which is wild because Moraes was the only one who stopped him. I think folks have slept on him since that Moraes KO which is silly because the rest of his resume is wins over Faber, Almeida, Alcantara, and Munoz amongst others. Rivera may want to stump for a fight with or Cruz (which was booked previously but didn't happen) or Raphael Assuncao (though he'd be coming off a loss) as it doesn't do Rivera any good to beat any more guys less than top 10 if the goal is to fight for the belt. He's beaten enough unranked and now top 10-15ish level guys that he had to finagle a fight with another guy with a considerable resume to erase the lost momentum from the Moraes stoppage.

Kattar vs Ige:
The fight played out about how I expected, with the reach and precision of Kattar being more effective across 5 rounds. Kattar had some kick catches he used to create takedowns but didn't engage much on the ground because why bother when you're picking your opponent apart on the feet. He's 2 UFC losses are decision to Zabit and Moicano, so that tells you he's definitely a cut above the bottom half of the top 10 at featherweight and now has wins over Ige, Jeremy Stephens, Ricardo Lamas, Andre Fili, and Shane Burgos. He's quietly compiled a solid resume of wins and can join the retinue of almost contenders who will want to face Holloway to stamp a proof that they're ready to face Volkanovski. 

UFC 251 3 Title Bout Event Post Event Reflections

I'm thankful JiuJitsu and the UFC have carried on during all this and I was worried that a card packed with so many notable fights might have that dreaded misfire that can happen when expectations outpace the reality of stylistic match-ups.

Volkanovski and Holloway produced another closely contested fight with Holloway doing much of the stalking and Volkanovski debatably landing heavier shots or landing at the end of a combination? An errant last minute takedown counter in the final round but also getting knocked down in earlier rounds, I'm left unexcited to see them scrap for a third time in a row.

Namajunas did what I expected she would if not KO'd by a slam which was pick off Andrade coming in which has been shown to be the gameplan to defeat her forward pressure.

Usman showed why he has only one stoppage in the UFC prior to his TKO of Colby, and I don't see that gameplan changing. I don't know that he'll be able to press Burns against the cage after a full camp, and seeing Masvidal largely unhurt by Usman coming into the fight on 6 days notice was not reassuring of Usman's ability to finish. He spent much of the clinch utilizing foot stomps and shoulder checks like it was UFC Brazil 20 years ago and there were no ref restarts due to inactivity or lack of progress.

Usman has adopted the early era Guida gameplan of minimal striking, locked hands against the cage, and because his opponent is pressed against the cage, and perhaps he scores takedowns in 2-3 rounds, he takes a decision. I don't doubt he will defend the belt a few more times (not sure against Burns TBH), but against a Leon Edwards he will implement exactly the gameplan he did here. Masvidal with a longer came would likely spend less time pressed against the cage, but would need to utilize more cage management to avoid losing rounds via papercut style striking in the clinch.

Yan stopped Aldo after weathering the earlier storm from Aldo implementing both kicks and punches and even a classic upright Muay Thai stance to throw off Yan. As Aldo's hands dropped just a bit, and he started pulling away from punches and utilizing head movement I grew concerned, and the takedown that was reversed I felt spelled the beginning of the end. It's crazy to see Aldo still in that top whatever % of fighters on earth in 2 weight classes (145 and 135) and to hear people say he's done or faded et cetera. Prior to the atrocious decision loss to Moraes and the stoppage to Yan, and decision loss to Volkanovski, he had TKO'd Stephens and Moicano ferociously. Before that it was 2 losses to Holloway, a win over Frankie Edgar, and prior to that the loss to McGregor. It may be that Aldo doesn't have 5 rounds left in him, which I say not meaning anything other than in looking at his record his recent stoppage losses only came to Holloway and Yan. Perhaps the pacing of striking over a longer fight forces him to be more conservative and allows a younger fighter more time to mount offense? At any rate, I theorize only because his resume is so ridiculously littered with name opponents and wins it's hard to write him off just because he lost in the 5th round of a fight to a guy who was on a 6 fight win streak in the UFC with a stoppage win 50% of the time in his UFC career up to date.