Monday, July 13, 2020

UFC 251 3 Title Bout Event Post Event Reflections


I'm thankful JiuJitsu and the UFC have carried on during all this and I was worried that a card packed with so many notable fights might have that dreaded misfire that can happen when expectations outpace the reality of stylistic match-ups.

Volkanovski and Holloway produced another closely contested fight with Holloway doing much of the stalking and Volkanovski debatably landing heavier shots or landing at the end of a combination? An errant last minute takedown counter in the final round but also getting knocked down in earlier rounds, I'm left unexcited to see them scrap for a third time in a row.

Namajunas did what I expected she would if not KO'd by a slam which was pick off Andrade coming in which has been shown to be the gameplan to defeat her forward pressure.

Usman showed why he has only one stoppage in the UFC prior to his TKO of Colby, and I don't see that gameplan changing. I don't know that he'll be able to press Burns against the cage after a full camp, and seeing Masvidal largely unhurt by Usman coming into the fight on 6 days notice was not reassuring of Usman's ability to finish. He spent much of the clinch utilizing foot stomps and shoulder checks like it was UFC Brazil 20 years ago and there were no ref restarts due to inactivity or lack of progress.

Usman has adopted the early era Guida gameplan of minimal striking, locked hands against the cage, and because his opponent is pressed against the cage, and perhaps he scores takedowns in 2-3 rounds, he takes a decision. I don't doubt he will defend the belt a few more times (not sure against Burns TBH), but against a Leon Edwards he will implement exactly the gameplan he did here. Masvidal with a longer came would likely spend less time pressed against the cage, but would need to utilize more cage management to avoid losing rounds via papercut style striking in the clinch.

Yan stopped Aldo after weathering the earlier storm from Aldo implementing both kicks and punches and even a classic upright Muay Thai stance to throw off Yan. As Aldo's hands dropped just a bit, and he started pulling away from punches and utilizing head movement I grew concerned, and the takedown that was reversed I felt spelled the beginning of the end. It's crazy to see Aldo still in that top whatever % of fighters on earth in 2 weight classes (145 and 135) and to hear people say he's done or faded et cetera. Prior to the atrocious decision loss to Moraes and the stoppage to Yan, and decision loss to Volkanovski, he had TKO'd Stephens and Moicano ferociously. Before that it was 2 losses to Holloway, a win over Frankie Edgar, and prior to that the loss to McGregor. It may be that Aldo doesn't have 5 rounds left in him, which I say not meaning anything other than in looking at his record his recent stoppage losses only came to Holloway and Yan. Perhaps the pacing of striking over a longer fight forces him to be more conservative and allows a younger fighter more time to mount offense? At any rate, I theorize only because his resume is so ridiculously littered with name opponents and wins it's hard to write him off just because he lost in the 5th round of a fight to a guy who was on a 6 fight win streak in the UFC with a stoppage win 50% of the time in his UFC career up to date. 

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