Friday, May 11, 2018

Quick Thoughts on UFC 224

Not super excited about this card. If nothing else I'm just hoping Nunes wins this fight so she can fight Cyborg. Cyborg has invented all kinds of reasons for this fight not to happen (among them Nunes hasn't faced any featherweights - oh wait, neither has Cyborg haha, anyway, I digress...oh yeah, and Cyborg doesn't want to face another Brazilian.....precious child...Brazilian men have been beating one another into CTE and near death for decades....welcome to 2018. Time to put on the big person pants and face the only other legitimate opposition on the horizon.

Nunes vs Pennington
Pennington is coming off of some wins of Miesha Tate (was ready to call it quits awhile ago), Bethe Correira (also not more than mid tier at best), a close decision loss to Holly Holm...but overall just probably belongs in the top 80th percentile of the division, but has won by decision her last 3 fights....and as a result, do I see her taking a decision from Nunes? Not likely, unless Nunes shows up in bad shape and off of a rough weight cut (both possibilities as Nunes has shown some inability to fight consistently over 5 rounds at times as of late. I see Pennington perhaps with some late pushes possibly in rounds 3 and 4 or perhaps 2 and 4 et cetera, but Nunes will stun her at least once or twice and have some rounds handily won and gut out a 3rd round with activity and pressing forward and pick up a decision.

Gastelum vs Jacare
It's easy to discount Jacare after his last two losses because despite being spread apart in his UFC tenure, they were hard to forget, main event style profile losses. That being said, within the UFC Jacare has only lost to current champ Whitaker, title contender Romero, and former champ Rockhold (in Strikeforce). Before that he'd lost by upkick to Mousasi and in his debut lost to a faaaaar more experienced Patino.
Jacare has really only lost to the absolute best in the sport and obliterated most all other comes.
Gastelum for me is hard to read. His wins are a mix of good timing and opportunity. HIs loss to Weidman is the thing that has me doubting the Gastelum train. Gastelum got Bisping in a fight Bisping shouldn't have taken. Gastelum beat Kennedy (who was as it turns out on the cusp of retiring) and beat Hendricks (in a fight Hendricks was in no condition to be fighting). I think this is the real litmus test of Gastelum and I don't think he passes. He has some very good skills inside the octagon, but I think timing and external factors have increased his stock a bit more than they actually should be priced. Gastelum has flashes of speed and movement and danger in his fists as evidenced in the fight with Weidman, and Jacare's standup has seemingly become more robotic over time, perhaps more leaden and predictable somehow, but even so, the question is can Jacare use his predictable big overhand to get to dragging Gastelum down to the mat. Weidman surived an early scare to do just that and Gastelum was a bit too content to fend Weidman's top position off but never really get back to his feet (and Weidman's mat returns kept him there for extended periods)....this is the hardest fight for me to pick on the card because Jacare has really only lost to the very best in MMA, whereas Gastelum is a puffed up welterweight who has some impressive wins but I think are due more to external factors rather than his attributes. I've got to go with Jacare for this one based on strength of resume and having hopefully healed up his shoulder injury for which he had surgery. 

Dern vs Cooper
Dern's being asked to leave the MMA Lab speaks volumes to me. Whether it was a veiled "you only show up when you have a fight and don't really help anyone else get ready" dismissal or a "she's not really been training hard and will get stopped sometime soon" goodbye, only time will tell. Dern's weight misses in the past notwithstanding, she's simply put, a bit fluffy for the division. As of yet, she's not faced anyone with the acumen to keep her at bay, and to her credit, she does come forward swinging with intentions that overwhelm low-mid tier opposition. Is Cooper the one to expose her? I'm frankly putting her odds as between slim and zero. Cooper's 3 losses are by submission. Dern will get her down and will quickly get a highlight real submission, I'm guessing the obvious RNC or armbar.

Belfort vs Machida AKA the "please for the love of God both of you retire regardless of the outcome of this match" portion of the card.

Ramos vs Hein
I had high hopes for Ramos coming into the UFC with his grappling and ADCC pedigree but his vaunted athleticism in those endeavors hasn't always translated into much action in his fights. His atrocious fight with Moraes was a cautious (on both their parts) affair, and he's yet to really show me he has the chops to be more than another dangerous grappler with passable stand-up but a limited gas tank that impedes his ability to drag opponents to the floor when they show any real determination or resiliency in protesting a takedown.

Lineker vs Kelleher
Lineker came within a fight of a shot at the belt but was drubbed by well-timed wrestling by Dillashaw. I've never liked Lineker's overrated brawling/wild swinging style or more specifically his ability to fail to make weight numerous times. For a guy with all this vaunted power, unless a guy stands flat footed in front of him, it makes for boring, sloppy punch-centric bouts in which he either sort of scores by this telegraphed flurries or gets picked off coming in/taken down 2 out of 3 rounds. At any rate, hopefully Kelleher puts him on the deck and Lineker's lack of much of a ground game from bottom gets him out of the upper echelon of the division for the time being. 

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