Saturday, November 2, 2019

UFC 244 Picks & Predictions: Masvidal vs Diaz


Masvidal vs Diaz
Masvidal for all this characterization is actually a very, very, very shrewd tactician. He has consistently proven that behind his toughness is actually a very clever gameplanner. For all the talk about this being about two very tough guys, the gameplan to beat Diaz has been laid out several times already. Chop the leg, circle off. Diaz's lack of wrestling acumen and one dimensional stand-up (while dangerous and effective) is the kind of thing that someone as sharp as Masvidal has clearly been able to dissect and train back into effectiveness his kicks. He has used them sparingly in some recent fights due to who he was fighting, but I expect to see his chopping high on the calf/knee kicks return. Masvidal doesn't wind up big on his kicks, and as he doesn't have to worry about Diaz kicking him much or shooting, I expect that lead leg of Diaz will be tenderized considerably by the close of round 2.
Masvidal via leg kick TKO in the 4th round

Gastelum vs Till
Gastelum by chopping right hook following a straight left with Till ending up heavily concussed from another head snapping back onto the canvas falling dead tree KO.

Luque vs Thompson - Thompson will try to run and pointfight as per usual, but I see Luque tagging him at least twice in the fight by round 2, and possibly putting him away in the 3rd in a fight that will be as ugly as Thompson and his summer olympics running around style will make it. Luque by stoppage in round 3.

Ivanov vs Lewis
Ivanov has fought ugly patient fights, but his patience here will be his undoing. Ivanov came into the UFC and immediately faced Cigano in a 5 round affair, but I see the work rate allowing "balls was hot" Lewis to work and chop at him and hurt him. This is the hardest one to call because Lewis as we know has finished guys in fights he was WAY behind on the scorecards.
Lewis by stoppage in the 3rd round.

Gillespie vs Lee
Gillespie by decision in a bodylock/clinch heavy affair with him pressing Lee against the cage, and riding him Khabib/one hook in + body lock style

Anderson vs Walker
Walker by violent KO in the 3rd round. Anderson will likely get him down in the first and possibly second round, and if Walker panics, finishes him, but otherwise Anderson tires from holding/keeping down the physically unpolished but explosive Walker and gets finished midway through round 3 on the feet by Walker.

Arlovski vs Rozenstruik
Arlovski....I hate picking your fights. I see a majority decision for Arlovski in another tough fight for the former champ. 

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