Lewis vs Oleinik
Much can be said about Derrick Lewis both as per his interview skills, social media savvy and his resume: the guy has wins over Browne, Volkov, Ngannou (worst fight ever, but anyhow), Gonzaga, Nelson, and his losses are Mark Hunt, Cormier, and Dos Santos. He ends fights violently be it in the first round or the very last, and avoids much trouble on the ground despite not having the most vaunted wrestling in this division. Oleinik has faced the likes of Blaydes, Browne, Werdum, Overeem, Hunt, CroCop, and Jeff Monson.
As much as I want to see Oleinik get a title shot, historically, Derrick Lewis is the kind of guy to tag him and put him away. Lewis much like Walt Harris or Overeem could catch him early and put him away. The pick, despite my desire for another grappling-centric HW champ is the pick by first round stoppage.
Weidman vs Akhmedov
Akhmedov hasn't stopped anyone in the UFC since 2015. He's dropped some stoppage losses in that time and picked up a number of decision wins. Weidman (other than that foray into the LHW division) has still only lost to the very best the MW division has to offer: Mousasi, Romero, & Rockhold. He has wins over Gastelum, Belfort, Machida, Anderson Silva (2x), Munoz, and Demian Maia.
Weidman via submission
Dariush vs Holtzman
Dariush is on a 4 fight win streak with wins over Moises, Klose, Camacho, and Dober. He has faced a bunch of dangerous strikers in his run in the UFC and it's been awhile since he was stopped (Hernandez & Barboza) or submitted (Chiesa). Holtzman is on a 2 fight win streak with wins over Dong Hyun Ma & Jim Miller. He dropped a decision to Nik Lentz which suggests that Dariush will control this fight as it suits him, and test him on the feet before potentially putting him on his back and pounding his way to forcing turtle and finishing by RNC.
Stewart vs Pitolo
Darren Stewart has always to hear him tell it been a violent striker with lethal power in his elbows et cetera, and I don't doubt that may have been the case outside the UFC, but his UFC resume tells a different tale: 2 decision wins, 2 stoppage wins, and 5 losses. Pitolo is 2-1 in the UFC, both wins by stoppage, and a decision loss. Stewart holds the advantage in UFC tenure, but I think Pitolo hurts him and puts him away here.
Means vs Staropoli
Means has always had an up and down UFC run with a win or 2 in a row then a loss and back and forth: he has wins over Alves, Rainey, Garcia, Howard and losses to Price, Moraes, Mohammed, and Matt Brown. I don't think Staropoli is the guy who hand him a loss here, Staropoli is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Alves and Aldana and a loss to Salikhov. Means by decision.
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