Augusto "Tanquinho" Mendes UFC Debut Sunday

Stepping up on short notice, Mendes ( who beat Rafa and Cobrinha to win his IBJJF World Xship) makes his UFC debut this Sunday. Been looking forward to this since he began MMA. 

Where Are They Now? Baret Yoshida SubCon Superfight

I remember watching an old school highlight of Baret Yoshida around the time I first started watching the early UFC's. It's amazing to see him at 40 yrs of age still testing himself at events like this here or the EBI. I can only hope and pray to be moving as well as him anywhere near his current age when I get there. He's always been a bit underrated I felt like but he's hard to miss if you know some of your grappling history from back before streaming Mundials and the ADCC's on VHS et cetera.

Where Are They Now? Michael Lieira Jr SubCon Superfight

Haven't seen much of the wonder kid since his brown belt worlds domination. At his last worlds at brown belt he brought back the closed guard with a vengeance and finished his opponent in every match I watched with old school, seemingly basic but powerful closed guard Jiu-Jitsu.

The Weight Class/EA Games/Wheaties Box Curse(s)

I predicted a year or so ago McGregor would trump Aldo. Call it luck. Call it whatever, but Conor has done what he said he would do to every UFC fighter he's faced (save Max Holloway against whom he tore his ACL mid-fight and still put the punishment to him).

At any rate, I finally am concerned about McGregor as rumor has it he'll face Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos is a terminator. Not so much because he beat Cerrone via body kick (call me "that guy" but I have to point out Cerrone has lost that way before). I'm concerned because not since BJ Penn's RNC on a surprised Matt Hughes has anyone done it.

I've seen it time and again: guys start talking dual weight class or moving up and the fall is precipitous. I remember Urijah Faber talking about it pre-UFC debut. I remember Benson Henderson talking about it. I remember Jon Jones talking about it. Anderson Silva spoke of it at LHW et cetera.

I don't believe in curses but what it shows me is looking too far ahead

The double edged sword of hubris is just that. The pathological level of belief that comes with residing at the top often as is its preference...pulls an Icarus and oversteps its bounds.

I don't think Conor is ducking Frankie Edgar to what? Go fight a bigger, harder hitting, better wrestler in Dos Anjos? Please, spare me. Dos Anjos is one of those guys I never thought much of, but he rounded a corner and has looked like a fighting Terminator sent from the future to brutally dispatch his challengers for a time. The beating he put on Pettis was tough to watch and unrelenting in its pace. The combination of punches he put on Cerrone following that body kick was punishment incarnate.

Assuming the curse is true, as McGregor AND Rousey adorn the box...well, the curse will prove true once again. McGregor faces two curses in he's now adorning the UFC video game cover AND he's talking about moving up a weight class.
Brock Lesnar felt the curse after his video game box cover debut.
Gustaffson hasn't looked the same since his shot at the title against Jon Jones (who ironically he splits a video game box cover with as well.

Because You Didn't Ask: Demian Maia Vs Gunnar Nelson, Rockhold Vs Weidman et al

1) I am back training and blogging. It's been almost exactly 4 months. Until yesterday I had not stepped foot on a mat, had not watched a single UFC fight or even a single Jiu-Jitsu match since the end of August. I did some adult-ing, took the only break I've had in training other than when I had my ACL reconstructed......and let's get down to business.

2) Watched Rockhold vs Weidman. Rockhold's dominance once he got to mount was impressive as few men in MMA have really shown many holes in Weidman's game. I can only surmise that Rockhold's top pressure is something like the Star Killer Base in the new Star Wars flick I also just saw. As usual, I'm late to the party, but better late than never. Rockhold did have moments where he looked human and overtly taking big mouthfuls of air, but despite that first round scare with the backtake by Weidman, Rockhold finished the very tough and resilient Weidman on the ground. No mean feat.

3) It's refreshing to see Maia, come out and almost immediately take guys down rather than have a sloppy kickboxing match with two takedown attempts (Chad Mendes, Urijah Faber, Johnny Hendricks - are you all paying attention?). Maia with that standing body triangle which he maintains like an octopus opening a jar underwater, then slick but basic armbar from the back sequence was a joy to watch - who would've thought? Straight Jiu-Jitsu through positional dominance: old school Gracies in action: clinch, takedown, dominant position, finish.......in an MMA fight? Mind. Blown. Maia when the takedown failed, stayed with it and would seamlessly go straight back to it if/when Nelson did get back to his feet and inevitably drag Nelson into the deep water. Maia must train accordingly as that kind of relentless grind is exhausting. Nelson had his flashes of brilliance with countering some takedowns at the last second by switching hips, but his brief flashes on top were miniscule compared to Maia's newfound reliance on his ground game which he had eschewed earlier in the mid-section of his career. He has clearly worked his wrestling and clinch work to specifically hunt for whatever it takes to drag his opponent to the mat where his back control is suffocating.

4) Despite my 4 month hiatus from training, US Grappling has an event in my hometown of Raleigh, so I'll be back on the grind reffing and competing midway into January. It's been an interesting two years at purple belt thus far and I can only imagine what this upcoming year holds in store.

Happy Holidays.

UFC Fight Night 75: Nelson vs Barnett Gambling Picks

Disclaimer: some fights may have changed (likely) because I am making these picks nearly a month in advance. 

Nelson has looked increasingly terrible as of late. His time when he had a shot at fighting for the belt has passed. I see Barnett getting inside to put him against the cage and lay in his half-guard and pound on him for the majority of 5 rounds. I don't see Barnett putting him away on the feet but I don't see Nelson doing anything other than collecting a beating and a paycheck.

Carneiro got tossed to the comeback wolf of Munoz. I still think he'll become a threat in the division this time around and the Munoz fight hides that to make him a good pick over here. The lines aren't posted yet (as the time I'm doing these picks but little will change by then to have changed my mind).
Roop over Mizugaki another guy who has looked slower and more hittable each time out and the shopworn feel has this written all over it.

I'll admit I've been a Kikuno fan since his days fighting in Japan. I think he has the wrestling chops and enough stand-up acumen to weather any feeble initial storm Brandao posts then put him on his back and put him away if grind out all 3 rounds on judges scorecards.
Camus has that win over Pickett, but I like Horiguchi and his style and his losses haven't done anything to diminish my certainty in picking him in this fight.

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 Gambling Picks

If the fight card has changed and these picks aren't exactly up to date I apologize.
I'm in the process of doing some adult-ing until the new year and won't be spending a ton of time blogging until then.
I'm doing my gambling picks for the coming months before I move and can't guarantee I'll be coming back to update them come fight time.

At any rate, it's free info and perspective, so take it for what it's worth.

I placed a parlay bet with Van Zant, Anthony Johnson, and Felder. All solid picks based on their match-ups that by themselves I don't see much money in wagering individually, but some change or decently tempting penny to go parlay and do a trio bet.

I don't see John Dodson winning this time or virtually any other than maybe Mighty Mouse getting old.
Mighty seems like too much a student of the game, a guy who lives his life like a nicer version of Marvin Hagler. He lives a clean, normal life, and won't succumb to the vices that typically age fighters as much outside the octagon as within it.

I think Demetrious wins via his startling ability to mix all the facets of mixed martial arts and presses for a late finish and gets it against an early and wily John Dodson.

Mir's 7 most clearcut losses were TKO/KO's. Arlovski's 17 notable wins are that specialty.
This is an easy HW version of striker vs grappler and don't let any forthcoming HL footage of that win over Duffy fool you.
Mir won't have that luck against Arlovski. I don't like betting HW fights but I may throw money at this one. I see the resurgence of Mir as of late as a fluke (though I'm sure people have been thinking that for years.
At any rate, the conventional wisdom/money should be on Arlovski.

Felder will be more active and batter the smaller, older, and more knockout-able Pearson.

Johnson will blast Manuwa out in a round or less and or put him against the cage, and donkey kong fist/pummel/hammerfist him into next year.

I like Rivera over Lineker who only looked good against guys he didn't make weight against. Rivera got that dynamite in his hands and looked great against Faber until the eye poke which I think is a big boost in his development mentally as a fighter. I think Lineker falters at this weight without the size advantage he enjoyed by fighting guys and not making weight.

Riggs looked terrible against Cote and Stallings looked great even in losing to Urijah Hall.
Easy fight to pick.