Friday, August 21, 2015

UFC Fight Night 74: Holloway vs Oliveira Gambling Picks

I'll start out by saying I don't plan to wager any cash on any of this card minus the Kyrlov/Lima fight.

I don't like betting on LHW fights and I don't like betting on fights like Holloway vs Oliveira. I don't bet on women's MMA fights because I don't watch enough women's MMA and the quality of opposition women face coming into the UFC is so hit or miss they're nearly impossible to tell as to how good they may or may not be against stiffer step ups the ladder.

Krylov/de Lima is the only fight I'm betting cash on, I use Bovada btw, haven't had any problems, and they seem slightly less shady than your other online options available (relatively speaking, of course). 

At any rate, below are my picks:

I think Oliveira's stand-up will wear down and batter Holloway ala McGregor's win over Holloway, but with Oliveira's better submission resume in MMA, I think he catches Holloway in later rounds desperately trying to get back to his feet due to being down on judge's scorecards on rounds.

Magny hasn't been KO'd before and due to his height, I doubt Erick Silva's winging wind up bombs will be the ones to put him down for the count, unless Magny is gunshy for takedowns after getting ruthlessly out-ground work'd by Demian Maia (that was a blowout).
The smart money for Silva is to take him down relentlessly. The sad reality is that Erick Silva would rather swing for the fences from round 1 than he would fight a smart gameplan (anyone remember that Dong Hyun Kim fight?)

I really don't like betting on this fight as the wide-swinging Silva style is tailor made to get tagged by Magny but Magny's groundwork is hellaciously suspect.

I see Krylov as undervalued. Sure, de Lima has come nice looking finishes to his credit in two UFC fights, but the strength of Krylov's resume I think speaks for itself. Krylov's only recent loss is to St. Preux, a guy who just fought former belt challenger Teixeira and though he was outclassed there, Preux is a beast.

I like Krylov in this fight and I like this line and it's the only one I'm betting cash dollars/money on personally.

I think Cote and Burkman will fight a terrible fight with Burkman winning because he's slightly less over the hill than Cote who I can't believe they're still giving fights to at this point.

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