Friday, July 5, 2019

UFC 239 Picks: Jones/Santos, Nunes/Holm, Masvidal/Askren

Does Jon Jones pick apart Santos and/or take him down and rough him up before getting vintage Jon Jones stoppage or does Jones get clipped by the blitzkrieg that is Santos? I've said it before and I'll say it again, I think Santos will do what he does and actually blitz Jones early, as history has shown trying to talk and fight a measured fight with Jon Jones is the guaranteed loss (ask DC and many others). I'm actually thinking Santos pulls it off as all things fade, and someone will be the guy to Weidman Anderson Silva or in this case Santos Jon Jones. My pick is Santos vs TKO.

Masvidal vs Askren - the one time Lawler hurt Askren he very nearly decapitated him and piledrived him. I see Masvidal who is a much more measured puncher hurting Askren as some point as he proved with the Till punch that he really does hit accurately. The Till punch was something Masvidal had been setting up if you go back and watch the duration of the fight and Masvidal for all his jive and persona, is actually much more a student of the game than he's given credit for. You see it in his fighting style and in his evolution as a mixed martial artist. Don't get me wrong, the dude is hilarious and the Leon Edwards scrap notwithstanding, that part of him is real, but he's also very, very sharp as evidenced by some of the ongoing improvements in his game, and I think one of his greatest assets is playing himself off as this type of character when in reality he is much more multi-faceted and much more professional in his approach to the game. My pick is Masvidal by TKO in 3 after he knocks Askren down 4-5 times and Askren increasingly takes longer and longer to get to his feet.

Nunes vs Holm. I've said this before but I see this as Holm vs Cyborg 2 but in an alternate dimension of sorts. Nunes is rangier version of Cyborg with more volume and comparable fight IQ if not more tools. Holm's inability to adjust in 5 round fights be it either how he's walking into the power punch of an opponent, or the same 4-5 strike combos with mixed success, is alarming to say the least. It's something of an oxymoron but on one hand she has an incredibly amount of fight experience over the vast majority of women fights in the UFC, but as evidenced in her fights, either in training camp or due to deep set patterns, she seems unable to adjust on the fly to basic circling/footwork patterns or tools being relied upon by her opponents, the Cyborg fight was a great example.
At any rate, Nunes wins by 5 round decision because Holm will stay with her legs underneath her circling, but Holm will have to face Schevchenko for a belt if she wants to win one.

Blachowicz vs Rockhold
Rockhold debuts at 205. It's interesting to see how guys who had a significant height/weight advantage adjust after moving up, occasionally you get a Santos who moves up to a new weight class and literally becomes  a new more dangerous wrecking machine, but often, guys struggle without that attribute in their pocket. Blackhowicz is good at all the things he does, if not overly dangerous in terms of workrate and unorthodox skills. Rockhold comes from an elite level camp so I doubt Blachowicz can throw anything his way he's never seen in the training room.
Rockhold by stoppage in the 3rd round.

Sanchez vs Chiesa
Chiesa has the range to really fight a smart fight and punish Diego from the outside. Chiesa tho' inexplicably has had some hiccups in fights as of late, so it remains to be see if he can return to form. His weight cut miss and RNC loss to Lee were concerning but easy to overthink as Lee was on his way to the top of the division with some notable wins. At any rate, the smart choice is Chiesa by decision after getting to Diego's back at least once and riding out the round along with some clinchwork to takedowns against the cage.

Marlon Vera will pick up another win as he's got the chops to move to the top 5 of the division.

Gilbert Melendez will look to not lose his last 5 fights after being gone for awhile thanks to a steroid pop 2 years ago. If he can't win this fight, then it is in fact the end of his tenure in the UFC as they tend not to pay for guys to stock around that long unless you're BJ Penn (too soon?)

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