Sunday, July 21, 2019

UFC on ESPN 4 Recap & Reflections: Harris Sleeps Oleinik, Edwards Delivers, Pennington Cruises...

I tuned in for a fair bit of the prelims and part of the main card, caught up on 'tings from the main card today.

I rarely bet on HW fights for the exact reason Harris clipped Oleinik in 12 seconds. Big dudes, someone might get slept. Meanwhile Arlovski and Rothwell about beat one another into retirement. Both guys were exhausted at the close of three very hard fought rounds. Arlovski is 40, still dangerous, and has shored up some of the defensive holes in his game, but this fight has me worried about his ability to fight 5 rounds in a title fight, especially with the likes of the gas tank of guys like Stipe or DC. Anyhow, the former champ is still dangerous, and is now on a 4 or 5 fight win streak, which is more than a lot of guys ever put together in the HW division. Rothwell for his part is still always dangerous, his awkward Frankenstein lurching stand-up style notwithstanding and is a tall order to beat for everyone on any given day, and even the more experienced vets in the division as he took Ivanov to a 5 round decision, beat Barnett and has faced my competent fighters in his career.

Pennington won, but despite her win streak, she poses no threat whatsoever to Nunes. Her post fight speech about working on her hands sounds good, but she will get picked apart with straight jabs and crosses by Nunes as he comes forward square, has no level changes to any takedown options, and offers virtually no threat to the champ or any other competent striker who circles off the cage or chains together striking with takedowns from the clinch.

Edwards did a lot of semi subtle things well against RDA: he stayed just out of range of RDA's low kick at virtually all times, ate very few of them, he kept RDA slightly out of punching range as he was the shorter/stockier man, landed errant high kicks that RDA checked but look good to judges, controlled the clinch by pressing RDA against the cage, picked up the first round on the scorecards with that duck under/well-timed takedown, would set in one hook as RDA would look for the kimura and cage walk to try and peel him off. Edwards never seemed interested in pouring it on, but he fought a much smarter fight than I would've given him credit for. I kept finding myself fast forwarding to how this fight would look against a true welterweight with a similar style (Masvidal). Masvidal also is content to counter, cirlce, pot shot and occasionally has he dials in your tells/style, pour it on in later rounds 3-5. Both men have a resume of work worthy of a title shot, and frankly, I'd like to see Masvidal get the title shot, then Edwards afterward. Masvidal has collected the bigger scalps and deserves a title shot after fight practically everyone else in the division over the past however many years.

I think Masvidal beats him most of the times they fight (in or out of a cage) as Edwards showed a real lack of ability or wherewithal to lead the fight with RDA. When he punches first, it's a very state, reaching/pushing jab/cross combo, feet planted and heavy, and his gameplan to plant just beyond range and counter will simply not work against Masvidal who is much more fleet of foot, sticks out his jab and hook with speed and pop, and has a less predictable set of tools he'll be using which Edwards will have to counter.

Hardy picked up another stoppage win but given the stuff you've read, I'm not gonna spend any time belaboring what that means or doesn't mean. It's hard to tell if his opponent was out or staying deep on the single leg, but the ref stopped it so yet again we're left with some uncertainty as to a Hardy finish/ability et cetera. 

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