Autopsy Report: Tonon Heel Hooks Moizinho @ F2W

Best Mat Grapplers in Judo HL

The omoplata shoulder forward roll to pin or submission shows up. A number of inverted/crunch armbars used to sweep then pin. Lapel feed to amplify turnover power into a pin & stepover loop/lapel choke as well.

UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs Hooker Predictions & Picks

This card is kinda spotty with some interesting bouts throughout on each portion but not the slate/dearth of heavy hitters I now wantonly expect now that we're back to having weekly events. How quickly we forgot not having any sports for several months straight.

Let's see how many more I can get wrong this week:

Poirier vs Hooker:
Poirier has only lost to McGregor, Khabib, Michael Johnson, Cub Swanson, and the Korean Zombie. I say only because that is across something like 23 UFC fights. He's got wins over everyone from Josh Grispi to Holloway to Alvarez to Gaethje and many other names in between. That's not to say that I doubt Hooker in this one, just that Poirier has only lost to some of the very best, and as of recently, only to McGregor and Khabib. Hooker recently has picked up wins over Felder, Iaquinta, Vick, dropped a loss to Edson Barboza and before that picked up wins over Burns, Miller, Pearson. Any concern I have that he can be chopped down by a varied striking attack have faded with his recent 3 wins, but Poirier is a consummate professional who plies his punches better than most and has adjusted to a 5 fight gameplan well. I think Poirier takes this one by stoppage in the 5th round. He conserves energy across longer fights and stays dangerous as he piles on the damage across 5 rounds.

Gall vs Perry:
Either Gall gets Perry to the ground or gets KTFO. Perry's unwillingness to be cornered is concerning but to each his own. I'm not hype on Gall as he's been stopped by far less ferocious strikers. Gall got TKO'd by Diego Sanchez in his fight before last and went to a decision against the unheralded Salim Touahri in August of 2019. Gall's submissions wins are over the likes of Sage Northcutt and CM Punk. I have to say Perry punishes Gall from top and/or standing and wins by KO.

Luis Pena vs Worthy:
I've become a big fan of Luis Pena. His odd persona meets entertaining fight style is fun to watch. He's got a win over a faded Matt Wiman, a loss to Frevola, and a win over Steve Garcia. Worthy AKA "Deathstar" is coming into his 2nd UFC fight after a stoppage win over Devonte Smith. Devonte has 9 wins by TKO out of his 15 wins. I haven't seen enough of his fights to predict how the fight will go on the feet but Pena has a tough style and range to prepare for, he's the favorite going into this due to stronger resume fighting under the lights of the big show. Pena by decision.

I want to be more excited about the other fights on the card but TBH not feeling it. 

Takedowns for BJJ: Lucas Lepri Lapel Single leg (plus some single leg counters)

Due to its versatility in coming up from bottom, it's ability to drag down and score against high level guys, and the ease with which the lapel is often available (can switch off to a collar drag et cetera), this is one of the first takedowns I each students wanting to develop a takedown game for BJJ. I've seen it used from seated up to standing by Cobrinha, from standing by Lucas Lepri, I've seen it used at HW by Rodolfo Vieira: it passes all the metrics for verified as working against high level/knowledgeable opposition.

This counter works whether they grab your belt/over the back (as Canuto did vs Lepri in their match) or in NoGi if they're able to lock up a kimura to force you overhead to counter:

This is a sequence I use against guys who lunge for the single leg with bad posture, and rather than disengage, I want to play the margin, and make them pay for initiating a takedown from inferior posture:

I find it's helpful to have some options other than the back attack or the kimura system as a lot of guys have been using these systems with the spread of information across YouTube and various instructionals. I find this option to bicep crush/kimura, a stepover kimura, and the Tarikoplata are my favorite submission oriented options for guys who keep their back to the mat to prevent the backtake. I use the submission threat to force them to create back exposure and not just hide out.

UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs Volkov Picks & Predictions

Solid mixed of fights with some well known names, notable up and comers and some tried and true stylistic match-ups to boot.

Volkov vs Blaydes
Other than that last 10 seconds loss to Derrick Lewis and a decision loss to Cheick Kongo back in Bellator, Volkov has gotten the win in 7 of his last 9 fights, and that sole loss to Lewis in his UFC tenure. What's more impressive is that despite spending most of his pro career in the UFC, Blaydes has only dropped 2 fights to Ngannou. Blaydes was only 5 fights into his career prior to debuting in the UFC. Talk about pulling a Lebron and jumping into the NBA outta high school. This is a hard one to pick, as neither guy is the type of fighter who has beaten the other. Both guys have gotten stopped by a bomber striker with lethal fists and proven KO power. I worry that Volkov will get dragged to the mat repeatedly by Blaydes who I thought was losing the fight to Werdum before Werdum stupidly pulled guard and stayed on bottom and got pounded out. Can Blaydes keep up the workrate necessary to avoid Volkov's reach for 5 rounds? I think Blaydes puts Volkvov on his back for most of the rounds but that Volkov stops him late in the 4th or 5th round as he increasingly fatigues.

Emmett vs Burgos
Emmett has notched a 6-2 record in the UFC dropping only to Jeremy Stephens and Desmond Green. Otherwise he has wins over Ricardo Lamas and Michael Johnson amongst others. Burgos' best win is a split decison win over Cub Swanson which might suggest he can take out Emmett, but I don't see it happening. Cub's love of a good fight night bonus means he often utilizes a rather one dimensional attack which I don't think Emmett will fall victim to choosing here. I think Emmett picks up a TKO win or a decision win.

Good vs Muhammad
This fight was actually booked in 2016 but didn't due to a positive steroid test by Good and subsequent 2 years on suspension. Since then Good returned to fighting to drop a split decision to Zaleski dos Santos who was on quite a tear at the time. Since then he's beaten Rencountre & Ben Saunders but you'd be hard pressed to find a UFC caliber level name on his resume. Belal Muhammad is decision machine as evidenced by his wins over Means, Millender, Sato, Mein, et cetera. His stoppage loss to Luque doesn't look bad considering Luque has punished a lot of guys in his career, but for an aggressive striker like Lyman, I see Muhammad's decision centric style leading to a split decision loss.

Jim Miller vs Roosevelt Roberts
Miller as of late has looked more shop worn than ever but that ever present flash of what got him all those submission wins over other black belts can rear its head at any time. Roberts use of his jab and range and height could spell disaster for a plodding Jim Miller if he comes out slow in this fight. Roberts' hype train picked up passengers on DWCS, but his win last month over Brok Weaver wasn't so much sensational as it showed an ability to piece together enough components of MMA to batter his opponent then quickly capitalize when it hit the mat. I worry about the height and reach advantage Roberts will enjoy over Miller, but will Miller utilize head movement to avoid the range and close the distance? Miller has won and lost to a who's who list of UFC fighters: everyone on his resume from Guida to Pettis and Poirier and even Chiese, Castillo, and Cerrone.

I'm going to bet against my concern as to his age and mileage and suspect he closed the distance and advances position to get the finish against Roberts.
Miller by RNC.

Clay Guida vs Bobby Green
Guida, much like Miller has a resume that would shut down any sort of 6 degrees of MMA separation debate: he's fought everyone from Bermudez, Kawajiri, Mendes, Lauzon, BJ Penn et al. Green is 1-5-1 in his last 7 fights. If Guida can't win this fight, it really is time to hang it up. Guida by decision.

Camacho vs Frevola
Camacho is 2-3 in the UFC. Frevola is 2-1-1 in the UFC. Easy pick is Frevola by decision.

Modafferi vs Murphy
Everyone's favorite nerd/underdog Modafferi. Proof that intellect and the mind can overcome a lack of physical attributes. I'll always be a fan. Interestingl, Murphy has no submission losses I could find on her record but troubling is her number of TKO/stoppage losses. I have to expect Modafferi will get her down to the mat, advance position and pour on the elbows. Modafferi by TKO.

Hubbard vs Rohskopf
Was super excited to see Joe Solecki in the UFC but he's pulled out due to unforseen circumstances. Solecki and I had actually been on some random grappling superfight events several years ago down south. In his place is oddly enough a guy who I've trained with prior to moving to NYC, Max Rohskopf who has been out in Vegas for a few years since wrestling in North Carolina collegiately. Max is 5-0 in MMA, and was recently seen on the Shugyo no time limit/sub only pro grappling invitational where he picked up a submission win over Ethan Crelinsten. My pick is Rohskopf by wrestling and position leading to a decision. Hubbard took Davi Ramos to decision in the UFC so he's not easy to put away. In fact, his last and only stoppage loss was 2016. His resume outshines here, but I'll go with Rohskopf. 

JitzKing Middleweight Results: Wrestling and Gamesmanship take Marinho to the Gold

Side guard is dead. Laying back on your side and hoping to utilize it to initiate offense only works if your opponent cooperates by coming forward and stepping knee in the middle to initiate passing et cetera. A lot of recent examples illustrate this: Tanquinho vs Miyao at ADCC is the obvious choice, but JT Torres in ADCC also springs to mind. JT utilized this to defeat Lachlan, Nichols, and others. If you show up to the gunfight unwilling to engage in the standing regardless of if you're down on points or if it's overtime, you're predictable. A smart competitor will use this against you. It's simple. Some JiuJitsu and submission only nerds will complain but too many examples have shown this. Guys willing to fight ugly, negating, stalling matches will simply not allow you to do much of the actual JiuJitsu you want to do.

Taza picked up a pull thru kneebar and a heel hook win over 2 guys with (deep breath) minimal awareness of leg entanglements. Marinho and Valdir both showed that gamesmanship and top pressure matter. Valdir took out reigning black belt IBJJF NoGi world champ Johnny Tama by simply being smart with his passing, resetting when necessary, and timing the takedown in OT and clearing the guillotine Tama used to attempt to counter.

Rau picked up a slick opening round outside heel hook from a grip variation less commonly seen that from what I could see actually popped the foot/ankle rather than the knee. Taza was able to pick up the OT win because of some deep leg entanglements because of how Valdir chains together his passes. Marinho avoided the same positions against Rau and was able to do the opposite .

Jimenez used his backtake threat and pressure to negate Tackett's leg dig out attempts, and the size difference was close enough that it worked. Jimenez hunted for the back against Marinho but got target blindess and let his leg get pulled thru then gave up the heel hook as he attempted to tie together a body lock takedown to drag himself onto Marinho's back. The stacking of the bracket with guys who favor a couple of different rule sets was interesting in terms of the matches. John Combs showed his willingness to wrestle which got him through to later in the tournament than he would've managed otherwise.

The days of only playing bottom are winding to a close in NoGi. If you can't wrestle, you're going to lose matches on gamesmanship that have overtime rulesets for golden score, or that require a clearly defined grip in order to pull guard. It also means that in transition you are ultimately unwilling to come up to the feet, and a smart competitor will reset and disengage and reset endlessly if need be. 

UFC Eye vs Calvillo Post Happening Thoughts: Vettori smashes, Eye Whines, et al

Some of the folks who missed weight added insult to injury by losing on top of their apparent lack of professionalism. Eye lost a decision in a fight that was largely forgettable. Vettori smashed Roberson after some initial high elbow guillotines defended by Roberson. Once Roberson's flail and spike himself overhead counter failed a couple times, he accepted bottom position, covered up, got punched, then gave up the backtake and his chin simultaenously. After all the back and forth and insistence about Vettori blowing things out of proportion, he got stopped in the first round having done basically nothing to effect offensively. Not a great look.

Rosa took a split decision over Aguilar despite seeing him walk into punches of varying types. Not egregious judging but also not quite the comeback for a guy who's been out for the better part of 2 years due to injury. Also why was this the fight the 3rd one out from the end?

Fili picked up a split decision that should've been unanimous against Jourdain, a debuting UFC fighter. Fili has wisely begun to mix in takedown with his striking centric style to cement rounds in the bank, but an inability to put away a guy in his debut is questionable as to his ability to broach the upper echelon of this very competitive weight class.

I missed the undercard as I was watching the JitzKing middleweight Pro bracket down in Florida broadcast on FloGrappling.

Know Your Footsweep: Kosotogari vs Kosotogake (with competition examples)

Kosotogari (clear sweeping motion to the outside of the leg):

Kouchigake (a block to the inside of the leg rather than a sweeping motion):
 
Kosotogari (a clear sweeping motion to the outside of the leg):


Kouchigari (clear sweeping and guiding motion to the inside of the leg) In NoGi:

Know Your Ouchigari: calf vs hip, & rotational power

UFC 250 Monday Morning Hangover

A night of not the fights going the way I expected, truth be told.

We all knew Nunes was going to batter her largely outclassed opponent so no surprises there. Nunes never really put on the heat to get the finish. Perhaps she wagered on a decision win on herself and carried Spencer? The betting lines for Nunes by decision were +333 so the money was good if she decided to pull a Jon Jones and carry a fight to decision like he did with Smith when he spent 2 rounds on top of his opponent and literally doing not much more than peppering him with short shots. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but when a fighter as thoroughly outclassed as Spencer was doesn't get put away it seems odd. Minus a single jab that Nunes walked into, Nunes barely took any meaningful strikes at any point in the fight. Who else is there? Nunes seems content to spend time with her wife and their baby and chill whilst a new challenger rises.

Aljamain Sterling: man. Talk about winning in exactly the way you need to so that you're the guy after the vacant belt fight takes place (or to take the place of someone who pulls out due to injury. I'm honestly not wildly excited about Petr Yan vs Aldo, but am excited to watch Aljamain fight anyone in the division.

Sandhagen nearly got put out by that first RNC squeeze, then never seemed to recover the composure to escape the second. It's wild how he'd looked against all previous UFC opposition then blinked and had Aljamain on his back. I'd like to see him face the loser of Aldo vs Yan. Garbrandt will probably say he won't face him coming off of a loss to Aljamain, so Sandhagen is in that odd position of having lost to Aljamain but has a win over Assuncao so facing Assuncao who is coming off the loss to Garbrandt doesn't make sense. Sandhagen hadn't lost in 3 years coming into this fight, so I hope it serves as a retooling stop before he fights for the belt in 2-3 fights.

Magny picked up a win over Martin but as big a Magny fan as I am, it was razor thin. The smaller cage I think definitely had him spend more time clinching against the cage and less time at range than is normally the case, as I've seen Magny blow out guys with better UFC resumes than Martin. Martin now has the all-time welterweight win record in the UFC but isn't in that top 5 range that will get him a title shot, which is wild when you think about it.

O'Malley did what he needed to do to stamp him as certified in the UFC, no longer busting up new UFC signees but rather putting away a dangerous veteran striker. Wineland initially avoided the kicks that I had thought were the bigger threat, but as soon as Wineland froze on the centerline, O'Malley stiff Ko'd him with one shot. I can see that O'Malley wants to utilize the hype to ply his wares for more money, but just as soon as the UFC hype train can spotlight you, it can send you to the nether regions of obscurity. I'm all for guys knowing their worth, but in the realm of fighters having been out of work for months on end, and the backlog of fighters waiting to fight, I question the intelligence of now being the time to hit up the UFC for a deal re-negotiation.

Caceres busted up Hooper who showed his plunge head forward first striking style to increasing inability to tie up his opponent. Caceres is crafty and has taken much more experienced fighters to decision. I hope this fight was a canary in the coal mine for Hooper to realize his striking has to get shored up lest he fall to the wayside like Brian Ortega when he's unable to tie up his opponent and drag them to the mat.

Heinisch looks huge in this weight class. His striking looked much improved from his DWCS fight I saw and the fact that its' backed up by a controlling, aggressive wrestling game when he wants to use it suggests a solid repertoire of skills for the middleweight division.

Perez showed with his 2nd leg kick TKO win the guys really has a tool set. His punches are still a bed wide and his combination structure is unvaried, but with a chopping leg kick game, and solid scrambling ability, he has the skillset to take apart the stick and move striking game of other featherweights as evidenced by his 2 wins via leg kick.

Herbert Burns put away a very tough and skilled veteran Evan Dunham suggesting that while not as BJJ accomlished as Gilbert Burns, Herbert has the versatility of dangerous striking and grappling necessary to be successful in MMA. 

UFC 250 Picks & Predictions: Nunes vs Spencer, Garbrandt vs Assuncao et al

A lot to unpack here. This is the best offering by the UFC overall since they resumed putting on events. Yes, they did a 2 title fight card, but this card has meaningful fights on every portion:

Nunes vs Spencer
The most dominating female MMA fighter of all time puts her belt on the line against an actual kinda 145'er. Nunes much like Cyborg has been padding her FW belt against non 145'ers, and TBH, 135 has done the same with fluffed up fighters not cutting weight to fight in various weight classes. It's hard to see someone dethroning Nunes. Spencer did survive against Cyborg in a fight she lost by decision. It wasn't particularly one sided and it suggests that she won't get blown out by Nunes. Spencer has won her fights primarily by finish but without the true wrestling I suspect someone needs to dethrone Nunes, I don't see her winning 3 out of 5 rounds to take a decision home. Nor do I see her KO'ing and stopping Nunes as we've get to see Nunes really hurt in a fight beyond a few stunning shots. When you're at the top, there's always gonna be the fight where you look human for the first time, but Nunes hasn't showed any of those clues as of late. Nunes by unanimous decision.

Garbrandt vs Assuncao
Coming off of 3 stoppage losses is a tough way to approach Assuncao who has the wrestling and varied striking to tag you and jump on the finish. Assuncao has fought everyone and has ONLY fought quality guys almost his entire UFC career (and notables in the WEC). He got tagged and submitted by Marlon Moraes and dropped a decision to surging Sandhagen but is Garbrandt's punching centric style going to be enough to clip Assuncao? Assuncao has fought everyone from Faber to Dillashaw to Joe Lauzon. I can't trust Garbrandt's chin coming off of 3 stoppage losses and so Assuncao is the pick by submission in round 2.

Sterling vs Sandhagen
I deeply appreciate when the UFC books a couple of the top guys in a division in the same event so we naturally emerge with some future fights to book rather than the vague "it might be for a title shot or maybe not" programming we normally get leading up to fights. Randomly a year or two ago I rolled with Sterling at Renzo's in the city. His grip strength and pressure on top are deceptively strong for his lean build. It's super interesting as Sterling can pull of things like Suloev stretch wins for the submission. Sandhagen hasn't lost since he reached the UFC and doesn't have a loss in the past 3 years. His wins over Alcantara, Assuncao, and Lineker all stand out as a real ability to shine against big names and experienced/dangerous opponents. Sterling has faced bigger names over the stretch of his UFC career and has dropped 2 decision losses  (Assuncao & Caraway) and a KO loss to Moraes. The pick is Sandhagen by split decision.

Magny vs Martin
Magny by submission or TKO on the ground. I've actually rolled with Magny at Renzo's in the city (super nice guy).

Wineland vs O'Malley
Wineland coming back from ACL surgery is always a tough call. O'Malley has all the confidence in the world that comes from the hype train and HL reel wins. A crafty veteran with a punch centric style is a good test for O'Malley but also a stylistically predictable one to prepare for. The UFC is tossing O'Malley a fight tailor made for his crowd pleasing style with a known veteran name as a possible stepping stone.
I dont' like betting on fights with someone returning from knee injury in particular. Having come back from 2 ACL surgeries there's a lot of inability to anticipate if they are actually capable of coming back first fight in recognizable as to who they were previously.
O'Malley by decision.

That main card alone is a dynamite watch.

Caceres by decision
Meerschaert by submission

Perez vs Formiga: Formiga by decision

Burns little brother vs Dunham - I love Dunham but any time a guy is vascillating between retirement and not, I have a hard time betting on them. Dunham is a guy I've always loved fighting as he like Bocek and others really put together striking, wrestling, and submission attempts in their approach to MMA. My heart goes with Dunham by craftiness but my brain says Burns little brother by wrestling and athleticism. 

UFC 250 Countdown Episode: Nunes vs Spencer& Garbrandt vs Assuncao,

The only rematch I want to see is Garbrandt vs Cruz. Make it happen.

Podcast Alert: Star-Lord Josh Leduc & I talk stalling calls, rule sets, my background et al