A lot to unpack here. This is the best offering by the UFC overall since they resumed putting on events. Yes, they did a 2 title fight card, but this card has meaningful fights on every portion:
Nunes vs Spencer
The most dominating female MMA fighter of all time puts her belt on the line against an actual kinda 145'er. Nunes much like Cyborg has been padding her FW belt against non 145'ers, and TBH, 135 has done the same with fluffed up fighters not cutting weight to fight in various weight classes. It's hard to see someone dethroning Nunes. Spencer did survive against Cyborg in a fight she lost by decision. It wasn't particularly one sided and it suggests that she won't get blown out by Nunes. Spencer has won her fights primarily by finish but without the true wrestling I suspect someone needs to dethrone Nunes, I don't see her winning 3 out of 5 rounds to take a decision home. Nor do I see her KO'ing and stopping Nunes as we've get to see Nunes really hurt in a fight beyond a few stunning shots. When you're at the top, there's always gonna be the fight where you look human for the first time, but Nunes hasn't showed any of those clues as of late. Nunes by unanimous decision.
Garbrandt vs Assuncao
Coming off of 3 stoppage losses is a tough way to approach Assuncao who has the wrestling and varied striking to tag you and jump on the finish. Assuncao has fought everyone and has ONLY fought quality guys almost his entire UFC career (and notables in the WEC). He got tagged and submitted by Marlon Moraes and dropped a decision to surging Sandhagen but is Garbrandt's punching centric style going to be enough to clip Assuncao? Assuncao has fought everyone from Faber to Dillashaw to Joe Lauzon. I can't trust Garbrandt's chin coming off of 3 stoppage losses and so Assuncao is the pick by submission in round 2.
Sterling vs Sandhagen
I deeply appreciate when the UFC books a couple of the top guys in a division in the same event so we naturally emerge with some future fights to book rather than the vague "it might be for a title shot or maybe not" programming we normally get leading up to fights. Randomly a year or two ago I rolled with Sterling at Renzo's in the city. His grip strength and pressure on top are deceptively strong for his lean build. It's super interesting as Sterling can pull of things like Suloev stretch wins for the submission. Sandhagen hasn't lost since he reached the UFC and doesn't have a loss in the past 3 years. His wins over Alcantara, Assuncao, and Lineker all stand out as a real ability to shine against big names and experienced/dangerous opponents. Sterling has faced bigger names over the stretch of his UFC career and has dropped 2 decision losses (Assuncao & Caraway) and a KO loss to Moraes. The pick is Sandhagen by split decision.
Magny vs Martin
Magny by submission or TKO on the ground. I've actually rolled with Magny at Renzo's in the city (super nice guy).
Wineland vs O'Malley
Wineland coming back from ACL surgery is always a tough call. O'Malley has all the confidence in the world that comes from the hype train and HL reel wins. A crafty veteran with a punch centric style is a good test for O'Malley but also a stylistically predictable one to prepare for. The UFC is tossing O'Malley a fight tailor made for his crowd pleasing style with a known veteran name as a possible stepping stone.
I dont' like betting on fights with someone returning from knee injury in particular. Having come back from 2 ACL surgeries there's a lot of inability to anticipate if they are actually capable of coming back first fight in recognizable as to who they were previously.
O'Malley by decision.
That main card alone is a dynamite watch.
Caceres by decision
Meerschaert by submission
Perez vs Formiga: Formiga by decision
Burns little brother vs Dunham - I love Dunham but any time a guy is vascillating between retirement and not, I have a hard time betting on them. Dunham is a guy I've always loved fighting as he like Bocek and others really put together striking, wrestling, and submission attempts in their approach to MMA. My heart goes with Dunham by craftiness but my brain says Burns little brother by wrestling and athleticism.
Nunes vs Spencer
The most dominating female MMA fighter of all time puts her belt on the line against an actual kinda 145'er. Nunes much like Cyborg has been padding her FW belt against non 145'ers, and TBH, 135 has done the same with fluffed up fighters not cutting weight to fight in various weight classes. It's hard to see someone dethroning Nunes. Spencer did survive against Cyborg in a fight she lost by decision. It wasn't particularly one sided and it suggests that she won't get blown out by Nunes. Spencer has won her fights primarily by finish but without the true wrestling I suspect someone needs to dethrone Nunes, I don't see her winning 3 out of 5 rounds to take a decision home. Nor do I see her KO'ing and stopping Nunes as we've get to see Nunes really hurt in a fight beyond a few stunning shots. When you're at the top, there's always gonna be the fight where you look human for the first time, but Nunes hasn't showed any of those clues as of late. Nunes by unanimous decision.
Garbrandt vs Assuncao
Coming off of 3 stoppage losses is a tough way to approach Assuncao who has the wrestling and varied striking to tag you and jump on the finish. Assuncao has fought everyone and has ONLY fought quality guys almost his entire UFC career (and notables in the WEC). He got tagged and submitted by Marlon Moraes and dropped a decision to surging Sandhagen but is Garbrandt's punching centric style going to be enough to clip Assuncao? Assuncao has fought everyone from Faber to Dillashaw to Joe Lauzon. I can't trust Garbrandt's chin coming off of 3 stoppage losses and so Assuncao is the pick by submission in round 2.
Sterling vs Sandhagen
I deeply appreciate when the UFC books a couple of the top guys in a division in the same event so we naturally emerge with some future fights to book rather than the vague "it might be for a title shot or maybe not" programming we normally get leading up to fights. Randomly a year or two ago I rolled with Sterling at Renzo's in the city. His grip strength and pressure on top are deceptively strong for his lean build. It's super interesting as Sterling can pull of things like Suloev stretch wins for the submission. Sandhagen hasn't lost since he reached the UFC and doesn't have a loss in the past 3 years. His wins over Alcantara, Assuncao, and Lineker all stand out as a real ability to shine against big names and experienced/dangerous opponents. Sterling has faced bigger names over the stretch of his UFC career and has dropped 2 decision losses (Assuncao & Caraway) and a KO loss to Moraes. The pick is Sandhagen by split decision.
Magny vs Martin
Magny by submission or TKO on the ground. I've actually rolled with Magny at Renzo's in the city (super nice guy).
Wineland vs O'Malley
Wineland coming back from ACL surgery is always a tough call. O'Malley has all the confidence in the world that comes from the hype train and HL reel wins. A crafty veteran with a punch centric style is a good test for O'Malley but also a stylistically predictable one to prepare for. The UFC is tossing O'Malley a fight tailor made for his crowd pleasing style with a known veteran name as a possible stepping stone.
I dont' like betting on fights with someone returning from knee injury in particular. Having come back from 2 ACL surgeries there's a lot of inability to anticipate if they are actually capable of coming back first fight in recognizable as to who they were previously.
O'Malley by decision.
That main card alone is a dynamite watch.
Caceres by decision
Meerschaert by submission
Perez vs Formiga: Formiga by decision
Burns little brother vs Dunham - I love Dunham but any time a guy is vascillating between retirement and not, I have a hard time betting on them. Dunham is a guy I've always loved fighting as he like Bocek and others really put together striking, wrestling, and submission attempts in their approach to MMA. My heart goes with Dunham by craftiness but my brain says Burns little brother by wrestling and athleticism.
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