Wednesday, June 17, 2020

UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs Volkov Picks & Predictions

Solid mixed of fights with some well known names, notable up and comers and some tried and true stylistic match-ups to boot.

Volkov vs Blaydes
Other than that last 10 seconds loss to Derrick Lewis and a decision loss to Cheick Kongo back in Bellator, Volkov has gotten the win in 7 of his last 9 fights, and that sole loss to Lewis in his UFC tenure. What's more impressive is that despite spending most of his pro career in the UFC, Blaydes has only dropped 2 fights to Ngannou. Blaydes was only 5 fights into his career prior to debuting in the UFC. Talk about pulling a Lebron and jumping into the NBA outta high school. This is a hard one to pick, as neither guy is the type of fighter who has beaten the other. Both guys have gotten stopped by a bomber striker with lethal fists and proven KO power. I worry that Volkov will get dragged to the mat repeatedly by Blaydes who I thought was losing the fight to Werdum before Werdum stupidly pulled guard and stayed on bottom and got pounded out. Can Blaydes keep up the workrate necessary to avoid Volkov's reach for 5 rounds? I think Blaydes puts Volkvov on his back for most of the rounds but that Volkov stops him late in the 4th or 5th round as he increasingly fatigues.

Emmett vs Burgos
Emmett has notched a 6-2 record in the UFC dropping only to Jeremy Stephens and Desmond Green. Otherwise he has wins over Ricardo Lamas and Michael Johnson amongst others. Burgos' best win is a split decison win over Cub Swanson which might suggest he can take out Emmett, but I don't see it happening. Cub's love of a good fight night bonus means he often utilizes a rather one dimensional attack which I don't think Emmett will fall victim to choosing here. I think Emmett picks up a TKO win or a decision win.

Good vs Muhammad
This fight was actually booked in 2016 but didn't due to a positive steroid test by Good and subsequent 2 years on suspension. Since then Good returned to fighting to drop a split decision to Zaleski dos Santos who was on quite a tear at the time. Since then he's beaten Rencountre & Ben Saunders but you'd be hard pressed to find a UFC caliber level name on his resume. Belal Muhammad is decision machine as evidenced by his wins over Means, Millender, Sato, Mein, et cetera. His stoppage loss to Luque doesn't look bad considering Luque has punished a lot of guys in his career, but for an aggressive striker like Lyman, I see Muhammad's decision centric style leading to a split decision loss.

Jim Miller vs Roosevelt Roberts
Miller as of late has looked more shop worn than ever but that ever present flash of what got him all those submission wins over other black belts can rear its head at any time. Roberts use of his jab and range and height could spell disaster for a plodding Jim Miller if he comes out slow in this fight. Roberts' hype train picked up passengers on DWCS, but his win last month over Brok Weaver wasn't so much sensational as it showed an ability to piece together enough components of MMA to batter his opponent then quickly capitalize when it hit the mat. I worry about the height and reach advantage Roberts will enjoy over Miller, but will Miller utilize head movement to avoid the range and close the distance? Miller has won and lost to a who's who list of UFC fighters: everyone on his resume from Guida to Pettis and Poirier and even Chiese, Castillo, and Cerrone.

I'm going to bet against my concern as to his age and mileage and suspect he closed the distance and advances position to get the finish against Roberts.
Miller by RNC.

Clay Guida vs Bobby Green
Guida, much like Miller has a resume that would shut down any sort of 6 degrees of MMA separation debate: he's fought everyone from Bermudez, Kawajiri, Mendes, Lauzon, BJ Penn et al. Green is 1-5-1 in his last 7 fights. If Guida can't win this fight, it really is time to hang it up. Guida by decision.

Camacho vs Frevola
Camacho is 2-3 in the UFC. Frevola is 2-1-1 in the UFC. Easy pick is Frevola by decision.

Modafferi vs Murphy
Everyone's favorite nerd/underdog Modafferi. Proof that intellect and the mind can overcome a lack of physical attributes. I'll always be a fan. Interestingl, Murphy has no submission losses I could find on her record but troubling is her number of TKO/stoppage losses. I have to expect Modafferi will get her down to the mat, advance position and pour on the elbows. Modafferi by TKO.

Hubbard vs Rohskopf
Was super excited to see Joe Solecki in the UFC but he's pulled out due to unforseen circumstances. Solecki and I had actually been on some random grappling superfight events several years ago down south. In his place is oddly enough a guy who I've trained with prior to moving to NYC, Max Rohskopf who has been out in Vegas for a few years since wrestling in North Carolina collegiately. Max is 5-0 in MMA, and was recently seen on the Shugyo no time limit/sub only pro grappling invitational where he picked up a submission win over Ethan Crelinsten. My pick is Rohskopf by wrestling and position leading to a decision. Hubbard took Davi Ramos to decision in the UFC so he's not easy to put away. In fact, his last and only stoppage loss was 2016. His resume outshines here, but I'll go with Rohskopf. 

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