Predict the Hangover: Bellator100 /UFC 165 Gambling Picks for This weekend

I'm working tonight at my other job on a rare Friday night (as opposed to just working at my other job Saturday night), so I'll miss both Bellator 100 tonight and the UFC 165 tomorrow night.
It's okay though, I saw a graph in a commercial the other day that told me the economy was improving.
Moving right along, while you're watching MMA on cable TV (remember renting UFC's with the YRV sticker at Blockbuster back in the day?) I'll be watching people drink to excess, do a poor imitation of the mating dance and perhaps fight with strangers or those they care most about all before 2am.

I'm actually interested to see how the Jon Jones/Gustaffson fight plays out.....in so much as it will be like watching a cat play with a mouse. It wasn't that long ago that Phil Davis tapped out Gustaffson so I have almost no doubt that Jones will finish Gustaffson. His body bag full of former champs and the meat grinder he was to everyone else on his way to the belt is proof that even if you don't like him or how smarmy and fake he may seem in interviews, his resume speaks for itself.






Bellator Picks:
For some reason I like watching Ben Saunders fight. I have him beating Douglas Lima tonight. Saunders is a smart guy that likes to scrap. I think if he doesn't get carried away with scrapping/being entertaining he wins this fight as he is a durable, long-framed guy with legitimate professional level MMA skills in all the areas but perhaps his takedown defense at times. But I've seen his own takedown game improving over the past few years. Whether that's due to lower opposition outside the UFC and/or his work in those areas remains to be seen.

Weedman will beat some guy I've never seen fight.

War Machine will beat some guy from Europe I've never seen fight.

Rick Hawn will beat some guy I've never heard of.

Efrain Escudero will beat some guy I've never heard of.

Mighty Mo is probably paired up with a guy limited enough in skills to get violently KO'd but stranger things have happened. Remember Mark Hunt's first few fights in the UFC?

UFC 165:
Jon Jones will finish Gustaffson and Gustaffson will plummet to the bottom of his division about as fast as Benson Henderson did with that first round textbook armbar loss.

Barao will beat Wineland b/c Barao just has more tools in his toolbox than Wineland. The movement and in and out will be grinded out by Barao who in the interviews when talking about his gameplan against previous opponents is actually a pretty shrewd guy, or he has shrewd guys in his corner telling him a good gameplan.

Wineland is tough and his movement will make him tough to finish but he will fight until the end and his desire to make it happen even when it can't may get him finished in the later rounds.

Mitrione will TKO Schaub b/c Schaub's 3 losses are exactly in the area where Mitrione has some skills.

I'm picking Healy to lose a close decision to Nurmagomedov but I would not bet money on this fight. Healy has spoiler written all over him and I could easily see him making this exactly the grinding type of fight to pull out the "W". This to me is about as close to a pick 'em fight on the card as I can see.

Phillippou will beat Carmont after taking some punishment against the cage in the clinch. Phillippou will finish him for a TKO win in the 3rd round.

Makdessi and Wonder "No Grapple" Thompson will also pick up wins. The rest of the guys on the card I honestly won't miss or watch.

 

That's Why It's Called "Gambling": UFC 149 Hangover

My picks are to the right. I managed to pick 6 correct and missed 5.
I don't count the Nick Ring bout as a correct pic. My man got busted up all kinds of ways in that fight.
I'm at 45-41 (correct/incorrect) in picking winners over the past 7 UFC events. Not terrible, but hardly blowing up the world of MMA gambling picks.

1)
Yes, I picked Faber over Pegado. I was worried about Barao's cardio for 5 rounds.
Barao looked every bit the champ in this fight. He was in control virtually the whole time and never once seemed to fluster.
He seemed to pick up speed and confidence as the fight wore on. I think he may just have the skills to pick Cruz apart (and I am probably Cruz's number one fan. I've been saying he would have the belt since I first saw him fight in the WEC). Faber really tried to turn it up after the 2nd round. You could see he was thinking he would lose another 5 round decision. He never stopped trying...but he was simply outclassed by a guy with crisper striking, a more diverse attack, more combinations, and stellar takedown defense. Period.
- a guy that's gotten by on athleticism, that's now close or 30ish years old, finds a tough road to tow. That and running what I assume is likely a similar training camp for the past however many fights....Urijah's fight with Cruz was the only one punctuated by takedowns and scrambles the way he used to fight more frequently. The stand-up style of Faber has become predictable and relatively easy to negate for the fast bantamweights he's facing these days. He still beats 8 or 9 of the guys in the top 10 I feel like, but that will likely start to slide over the next couple years to where he beats 7 or 8, or 5 or 6 of the top 10 guys at his weight class.

2)
* Ring lost that fight worse than Forrest lost to Tito (at least Nick didn't steal Rogan's mic after leaving the cage and getting bitched into going back in there). I hate saying this, but Fuck Forrest. Fuck his books. Fuck his persona he put together. His goodwill with fans should just about be gone b/c of the persona he put forth and how short he has come to being what he presented (and the financial gain as a result). A professional fighter like Forrest who runs out of the ring like he did after Silva. And did it after the fight with Tito which was going to be his last? Before the decision is announced?
Your days as professional prizefighter are behind you. Retire.
As for Nick Ring, he just looked atrocious from the start. You could tell he didn't think Court would get the better of him standing up and he drained his confidence. 

3)
Kuivanen and Carraway - I just bet based on their finishing rates and how they finished without watching any tape of either of them. 

4)
Riddle continues to impress. I thought he'd spend more time slugging like he did in his last fight which against a guy with some KO's/TKO's on his record was going to be dangerous but here, he did very well, varying his takedowns and only engaging in firefights from time to time. Well played, good sir.

5)
Ebersole came out looking like he had just ran a f'ing marathon before the fight. That's what making weight 2x in a month does when you cut a bunch of weight. I was concerned how it would affect him but just couldn't justify betting on the unheralded James Head against a guy that put the fire to the veteran Chris Lytle.

6)
I figured Pineda's experience against Mike Brown meant he could beat some guy I'd never heard of. Wrong.

7)
In my perfect MMA fantasy world I imagined Jimmo finishing the fight in serious fashion and doing a robot dance after. He did that, and did it in only 7 seconds. Mind blowing.

8)
The prelims were pretty entertaining with finishes and such but then the main card was one of the worst in recent memory. Mainly b/c guys like Lombard and Ebersole not only looked s*** but did virtually nothing during the fight and and based on the look on their faces didn't seem to give a flying f***.