My UFC 183 Picks & Prognostications for Silva vs Diaz et al

Let me start by saying there are some fights on this card I simply would not lay actual money on. Fights with intangibles like guys coming off of considerable layoffs, guys fighting out of their weight class, fighters with more UFC fights but only a win or two against top flight guys and some up and comers poised to transition to the top 5 or top 10 of their division.
In short, dangerous fights on which to wager cash.

I've gone 17 correct and 7 incorrect picks across the most recent 2 UFC events. Not bad.



I don't know how much Thiago Alves has left in the tank. I haven't seen him fighting enough recently to feel certain he will top Jordan Mein.
Woodley has only one top flight win on his resume (Koscheck, the Condit fight was a knee injury accident) and Gastelum has been surging as of late. That being said, Woodley has never lost by submission, and I don't see Gastelum KO'ing Woodley.

Boetsch has only lost in the UFC to the likes of guys near the top of the division however unspectacular his fighting style may  be and I'm not completely sold on Thales Leites as of yet. Boetsch's come from behind win against Okami shows he's that guy well on his way to losing and you winning your money until he clips the guy in the 3rd round up against the cage.

Those are 3 fights that I just would not bet money on personally.
Well, maybe 4. This will sound crazy, but every fighter gets old.
Is Saturday the day Silva gets old?



I don't know.
He's 39.
Diaz always finds a way to blow it when it matters most, and Silva has looked bigger than the opponent even when fighting at LHW and Diaz is long of frame, but fights at welterweight.

This sounds crazy, but I wouldn't bet money on that fight either.
There's a lot of intangibles when I look at the fights for Saturday. Guys who haven't loss by submission fighting guys who won the majority of their fights by submission are the easy picks for wagering your dollars for example. Other fights with guys who have been inconsistent or not fought recently are tough to handicap.

I see no reason why Ian McCall won't exercise the same gameplan he did in his last outing and pull of a stick and move win over Lineker. They talk up Lineker all the time and his "hands of stone" moniker but the guy has missed weight several times, fades as the fight progresses and I've never seen him do much other than really look for one big punch. McCall fights smart when he chooses to and I see him stamping his way toward another eventual title shot here.

Hettes returns to action and Brandao looked terrible in his last outing, I see Hettes breaking Brandao here with his transitions and submission attempts, though I don't like the fight because I haven't seen Hettes fight in quite awhile either. Herman has looked progressively worse in his Octagon appearances as of late and Brunson is a beast. Brunson losing to Romero who is poised to claim a title shot should he get by Jacare is no slouch and I see Brunson battering Herman to a late stoppage. 

Unibet's Guide to UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz

I'll be putting up my picks on Thursday. I went 8 for 12 on the UFC on FOX 14 card and I went 9 for 12 at the UFC Fight Night Boston card. Not bad. I'm picking back up MMA betting here soon and it's good to see I've still got the touch.

Countdown to UFC 183: Diaz vs Silva, Woodley vs Gastelum, Lauzon vs Iaquinta

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Instructional Review: Lucas Lepri Championship Guard Passing

The guard passers I've studied the most are Gui Mendes and Lucas Lepri.
I've watched every available match/footage of them on the internet. Multiple times.

Early on, Rafael Lovato and his pressure passing and concept of fighting/getting to a starting or headquarters position had a big impact on how I look at the spaces/positions between techniques in Jiu-Jitsu.

Every month or so I take a few hours and go back and rewatch their passing games as they've evolved over the years.
I never fail to notice a bit more, or see smaller and smaller details in terms of how they may grip a leg, or how they may be setting up a pass, or hopefully, occasionally I pick up on a sense of HOW they combine their various guard passes.

There's a lot of intangibles in studying competition footage, however, I am a firm believer that you can pick up underlying subtleties and commonalities by soaking in footage.

My Rafael Lovato Pressure Passing DVD review has been a continual hit based on my traffic to this site, and it's high time I hit another DVD review.

Let me preface by saying I don't digest a lot of pure instructional material.
In fact, it takes me many sessions to digest just a couple moves or in this case guard passes.

It's a blessing in a curse to admit that I'm enamored with a particular competitor before I begin analyzing their content. I may have specific components of their game which I wish they would focus on, or perhaps it could sway me to resist the urge to criticize the content.

At any rate, here we go:
I've broken down my review into further sub sections and cheesily ranked them by belt color:
white belt - hardly worth watching or noting
blue belt - middle of the range. not bad but not great or good. passable is the best adjective here, often feels like a review with perhaps a few details you may normally gloss over.
brown belt - worth watching and noting, seems like some effort was made in this area and often has an "ah ha!" moment or clarifies a gray area for you.
black belt - excellent. top notch, about as good as you could expect or want.

Production Quality: black belt - looks good, clear audio, feels like you're sitting right there and watching Lucas explain the move/details to you.

Elaboration on Theory: white or blue belt at best. I'm a big "why?" person in understanding why a competitor prefers say being on top or pulling guard. I like to and really, honestly, need to know their why to better retain the information. This is not a knock on Lucas, but as cheesy as it sounds, some of the analogies Rafael Lovato Jr. used I can still remember almost verbatim in my head and that is the proof that it worked as an analogy. I can remember it something like a year or two later from one or two viewings.

Length/Number of Techniques: black belt - deals with open guard, DLR, closed guard, et cetera.

Depth of Explanation for Individual Techniques: black belt - good instruction, clear and easy to follow

Ease of Use in Rolling: brown belt 
Used several of the guard passes within a week or two digestion but prefer a system of techniques which chain together in a bit more obvious manner, again, I'm reminded of Lovato's instructional which really shined in that regard. 

Overall Rating: brown belt. I've learend a ton just by watching Lucas Lepri compete over the years, and it does have a greater dearth of techniques than the Lovato Pressure Passing system, but I have consistently used the information I got from Lovato's system over the years and will continue to use more than some of the guard passes I picked up from this DVD.

Let me be clear in saying that I can see other practitioners preferring this one to Lovato's due to the brevity of Lovato's which does feel short in comparison to the standard length/depth of a lot of instructionals out there. At any rate, if there's an underlying system to what Lucas does (which I'm sure there is as he is a 2x black belt world champion) a few moments to elaborate on that would have gone a long way. I'm an educator by trade and understanding the why is even more important to me than the how.

What I'm Watching - Full IBJJF Europeans 2015: Sunday Matches

10 Ways to Fail at Jiu-Jitsu

1. Show up sporadically. The less frequent the better. Better yet, get your blue belt and quit like most people. Don't even waste your time once you can get the belt most people who kind of train get.

 

2. Ask "why not?" questions. A "why not?" questions results from your starting belief based in why something will not work. "Why?" questions are powerful. "Why should I learn closed guard?" "Why do we learn to fight off of our back in Jiu-Jitsu?"  "Why do we wear a gi?"

"Why not?" questions are along the lines of saying why things won't work without having actually tried the technique. Or asking why you haven't gotten a stripe, a promotion, a belt, a pat on the back, or whatever.

Also, be sure to refer to why it would or wouldn't work in another grappling sport if you have a background in that. If you've wrestled, forget learning how to fight off your back. If you've played Judo, just pin everyone, who needs to advance position? If you're an MMA fighter (or want to be/like telling girls at the bar Friday and Saturday night that you train UFC) you especially don't need to learn much Jiu-Jitsu.

3. Train every round in rolling like it is the World Championships. Do not tap until you fear something will tear any second. Extra points for only rolling with people smaller than you, newer than you, and being sure to always be not tired enough from hard training to instruct lower belts/same rank as you.

4. Don't compete. Figure that if it works in the gym against people you're comfortable rolling with it will work any other time. Better yet, avoid open mats and training with people you normally don't train with regularly. People who drop in from out of town can creep in underneath your radar. Avoid them because who wants to lose to someone in front of your regular training partners?

5. Don't train takedowns or gripfighting.


6. Don't cross train. Learning some gripfighting couldn't possibly help your takedowns for Jiu-Jitsu. Avoid leglocks because they are cheap and don't count.

7. Avoid NoGi training at all costs. If you do roll without the Gi, sem kimono we call it, blame any missed opportunities or lack of success on the other person's athleticism and/or sweat.

8. Make fun of closed guard as a stalling position then go learn Lapel guard because it's modern and lets you tie the person up.

9. Decide that there can be no overlap between Jiu-Jitsu as martial art and Jiu-Jitsu as sport/competition. Doggedly believe in one or the other and make fun of anyone/criticize those who do not share your preference.

10. Don't drill. Miss the instructional time and just roll regularly at open mats with little to no concerted learning time.

 

UFC 183 Extended Preview: Nick Diaz vs Anderson Silva

Don't be afraid to fail.
Part of me finds this fight hard to fathom.
Silva has fought as high as light heavyweight and frame-wise, looked bigger and taller than the LHW's he's faced.
The other part of me, wonders, can Nick Diaz somehow topple a man who was undefeated for such a length of time as Silva?
I don't know, but I'm intrigued. The hype machine and videos for this match-up did what I didn't think was possible....make me curious. A week from Saturday, we find out.