UFC on FOX 28 Fight Card Predictions & Shots in the Dark

Alvey, Yahya, Barao - Should all pick up wins today/tonight. Alvey continues to fight whoever they put in front of him. Yahya also plugging along picking up unheralded UFC wins. He's actually been with the promotion for quite awhile just flying under the radar. He's only been stopped by Benavidez and lost a couple decisions to guys with names like Chad Mendes and a split decision to Niimaki, and also a decision loss to Mizugaki before he started dropping a bunch of fights.
Yahya is actually 9-3 in the UFC (with a couple losses to name guys in the WEC before it was consumed by the UFC. No doubt should pick up a win here.

Saunders vs Jouban - I've always liked Saunders for his willingness to strike and grapple. He's the kind of a guy who can toss a fight out the window with a minute left in round 3 so he's been frustrating to support over the years. Jouban if he fights smart should cruise to a stoppage or a decision win, but if he gets reckless, Saunders can easily suck him into a grappling exchange and get the tap. It's hard to say which Saunders will show up but I'll go with Saunders by submission round 3.

Emmett vs Stephens  - how good is Emmett? Hard to say with that counter strike KO of Ricardo Lamas. We didn't see a lot of fighting that night and he did capitalize on a golden opportunity. Stephens is a known quality: aggressive, good takedown defense, punches and kicks in combination if not particularly packing finesse. I don't think Stephens is a hard puzzle to figure out, I think Emmett takes this one in a split decision. Emmett strikes me as being smart enough to play matador and pick apart an increasingly frustrated Stephens over the course of the fight.

Andrade vs Torres - too much forward pressure and overhand rights from Andrade. Torres will wilt under the pressure like most of Andrade's opponents and this will be a 2nd or 3rd round stoppage win for Andrade

OSP vs Latifi - this is another known quality vs known quality type of fight. OSP's size and range and movement versus Latifi's smother wrestling, press against the cage, and overhand right bulldozer style. That being said, OSP's resume is a murderer's *&^%ing row of the LHW division: Teixeira, Oezdemir, Jon Jones, Manuwa, and  his last 3 wins are Okami, Anderson, and de Lima. OSP seems to lose big fights but is Latifi a "big fight"? Latifi has only lost to Blachowicz, Bader, and Gegard Mousasi, so it's basically two guys with impressive resumes but OSP edges him out in having faced arguably the top 5 in the LHW division, or guys that comprised the top 5 in the LHW at one point or another. OSP is the pick here. 

Perry vs Griffin - Perry's hype train and slugger unstoppable aura faltered a bit in his last outing against Ponzinibbio. Both guys talked a lot of pre-fight talk about going for broke and one of them would end up face down ass up on the canvas. That kinda was the case in round 1 but both seemed to content to not entirely press for a HL reel finish as the fight wore on. Ponzinibbio and Perry both faced adversity and showed they're not just front runners. Griffin's losses to Colby Covington and his fight with Zaleski dos Santos both suggest to me Perry will likely put him away unless he can really grind through Perry's offense and take a decision. 

McGregor VS Diaz Fight Card Gambling Picks

Tonight: Bellator features Darrion Caldwell vs Joe warren in what Joe Warren basically did which was jump quickly into the deeper end of the MMA pool after a stellar wrestling career. Interesting to see if Old Man Warren can do what he's done to others.

The real show topic of importance: 

Nate Diaz is 3-3, in his last 6 fights. He has losses to RDA, a stoppage loss to Josh Thompson and Decision loss to Benson Henderson. Those aren't super telling in that Henderson was champion, RDA now has the strap, and the Thompson fight was a firefight.

Diaz has wins over Gray Maynard by Stoppage, Gillotine over Jim Miller,  and a pretty lopsided Decision over Donald Cerrone: both those fights nearly 3 years ago. For me, to handicap this fight, the most telling was his recent Win over Michael Johnson. Johnson had the right gameplan to start the fight in the first round but fatigued inexplicably and Diaz eventually walked him down and edged out the 2nd round and clearly won the 3rd round.

The speed of Johnson gave Diaz problems, Diaz has always had problems with consistent leg kicks, lacks the counter or even offensive wrestling to stymie guys coming forward and wins fights one of two ways: walking the guy down who wilts under his pressure, in a scramble from a clinch/tie-up gets it to the mat where he efficiently does work and can finish guys quickly off his back or otherwise. Against McGregor, none of those gameplans will work. McGregor will go to the body early and often with some push kicks that fast, sneaky spinning back heel kick he lans as guys circle out against him/a southpaw.
I bet and will move in and out and do to Diaz what he likes to do to others which is stalk and control the range.

Holm vs Tate - Holm by patient, dissection of the rushing forward Miesha who lacks the footwork and head movement to not get picked apart. This one by slow death, ends in the 3rd round.

Tom Lawlor - won last two by KO and submission, lost a split Decision to Carmont, beat Jason Macdonald, loss by sub to former champ Weismann on his title run up 

- D win over Maldonado whatver that means, win over some guy who's name I can't pronounce, Los to villante, 

Erick Silva vs some dude - 2-2, loss to Neil magny, submitted Koscheck and mike Rhodes, loss via stoppage to Matt brown - never won more than 2 in a row in the UFC. Dude's best showing was a win on a TUF finale. I'll just leave that there. 

Nunes vs I don't watch women fight so I'll keep this moving right along.

Thatch is back after losing to Bahadurzada. I think Thatch wins this one but wouldn't bet cash on it straight up. 

Jim Miller on FightPass vs Diego Sanchez 

Jim Miller is in the "should have campaigned for a title shot back when he had an obscene amount of wins in a row. Now he's fighting on FightPass on the biggest card of the year thus far.

Now he's coming off a submission loss to Chiesa, and a split Decision win over Castillo, and a loss to Dariush by D and a KO loss to Cerrone: all since middle of 2014.
I think Miller wins this one by decision as Sanchez is notoriously hard to finish despite the mileage on his tires. 

Sanchez - coming off a D loss to Ricardo Lamas,  a split D win over Ross Pearson, loss to Myles Jury, a loss to Melendez, and a split D win over Gomi going back to 2013

UFC 196 Gambling Fallout & Upcoming Cash Bets

Well, I won cash betting on Wonderboy. Hendricks looked even worse than I expected. I figured Wonderboy would do to Hendricks what he did to Ellenberger, but figured Hendricks would put up more of a fight. Hendricks looked faded and shopworn after the first exchange and a couple crosses he took. Thompson landed a push/front kick that didn't even look like much and it was like you could see Hendricks' sails just deflate and he folded when Thompson swarmed.

Nelson pulled out a "win" if you can call it that. The highlights might convince someone who didn't watch the event it was a fight, but it was mostly plodding with some 2-3 punch combinations sparingly mixed in. Scoggins completely befuddled Borg who seemed to fall apart gameplan wise after the first round. Borg had no idea how to approach or cut off the ring or what to do at all against Scoggins. Scoggins was worrisome in that he CLEARLY coasted in parts of the fight and that kind of behavior will get him KTFO'd or submitted against guys further up the food chain. Makovsky showed not so much that he isn't good bantamweight material, but that Benavidez still has the chops to gatekeep a division he simply will not win until Demetrious Johnson moves out, dies, retires, or starts eating like Johnny Hendricks does between fights.

I have no desire to see Benavidez fight for the strap a third time when his most recent title bid was even less compelling than the first. Benavidez finds himself in Chad Mendes territory in that Mendes lost twice to Aldo, and has lost to McGregor by stoppage (short notice taking the fight notwithstanding). Benavidez will probably beat anyone else in the division but no one other than his mom is clamoring for a third title fight with Mighty Mouse.

That Circunov guy? Jesus. Looking forward to seeing him blast some guys a bit reminiscent of the hulking Houston Alexander but with more patience, a more well-rounded game, but the same bonkers power, size, and athleticism. It wasn't a bad night of fights for free TV, but that card for a PPV even with Fabricio vs Cain II was very much pushing it in terms of asking fans to buy a sub par product.

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On to the upcoming betting lines. I like the line on Bisping vs Anderson. Anderson hasn't won a fight in nearly 3 years, October 2012 being the last time he actually won a fight, didn't break a leg, didn't get KTFO, and didn't fail a drug test for banned substances. How the mighty have fallen.....
Bisping has lost to guys with better wrestling mixed in with their striking, ala Rockhold, Kennedy et cetera. I think Anderson is also in Hendricks territory: "A king has his reign, then he dies." It is the natural order of things. I also like the line on Brad Pickett vs Francisco Rivera. Rivera has some losses to guys with styles suspiciously like Pickett: strong wrestling mixed in with competent stand-up skills (Lineker, Faber, and Mizugaki). I think it's a tight fight and Rivera did impress me in that fight with Urijah Faber, but I think Pickett's overall skillset and experience edges Rivera out in this one.

Pickett and Bisping are two the most live betting underdogs I see listed over the course of the next few events.
I'm curious to see Miocic face Werdum. I hate betting on HW fights, but I like Werdum's skillset. He's dangerous AF on the ground, has that tall frame and can use the Muay Thai clinch with knees up the middle because he doesn't fear getting taken down like most heavyweights. I'll wait to see what the line is on that fight, and I'm especially curious to see how the oddsmakers peg the younger Miocic against the aging champ Werdum. Werdum I think has a few wins left in him before he retires.

Jon Jones vs DC is another upcoming ? for me in some regards. I think Jon Jones even with his personal life what sounds like a trainwreck beat DC over the course of 5 rounds. That was DC's first time fighting a 5 round fight and rounds 4 and 5 were what got him. I thought he worked Jon Jones in the tie-up with his head positioning until he faded in the so called Championship rounds. It's an intriguing bet and another one that I'm curious to see what the betting lines look like when they're announced. 

UFC Fight Night 82/UFC 196 No More - Gambling Picks & the Like - Wonderboy Vs Old Rig

Hendricks sounds like a broken record ever since losing his strap. He loses then admits his heart wasn't in it and that this time he really wants his belt back and blah blah blase. Not buying it. I'm not sold on Thompson as winning the belt but Hendricks has only unimpressed me since his fights with Lawler, not to mention the failing to make weight against Woodley debacle. He hasn't had the KO power since the surgery on his arm and that's what makes me think Thompson can survive some potential danger zones to do what he did to Ellenberger against the now semi-faded Hendricks. I think as lame as it sounds Thompsons movement and accuracy will trump Hendricks.
Speaking of fading, can't possibly pick Roy Nelson based on his last 5 losses I think it is.
Cavalcante of whom I am a fan hasn't impressed since porting over to the UFC and looks small in his division. Makovsky is a guy I think may down the line challenge for the belt and I think will improve each fight in the UFC. Borg is a guy who has also impressed me in small doses and I think also is a cut above other blood in his division. 

UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs Bader - MMA Picks

Normally I'd get to see this one because it's on at 8pm, and I don't go into my weekend job downtown until 10pm, but I'll be driving back from reffing all day Saturday at the Newbreed Grappling Tournament in Charlotte (after working at another weekend/nighttime job the night before until 2am). I'll catch up on the results when I get to work at 10pm. Blase blase. It's a decent card for some free TV and honestly, about on par with the now Werdum-Cain-less UFC 196 card that follows not long after on PPV. It's still hard for me to digest how one can just throw money on that card without that main event. Dana White used to talk a colossal amount of smack about Boxing promoting one fight cards, but this is a total "contender" card which is okay for free TV but Rothwell and Barnett aren't former title holders (Barnett was stripped of his title-winning performance against Randy Couture  - if you're a true old school UFC fan you'll remember) and Ellenberger looked completely outclassed in his last outing against Wonderboy (who finds himself facing the also faded and shopworn Hendricks on that UFC 196 card which has done zilch to impress me without it's title fight main event).

It's not showing but I've got Ryan Bader over Johnson by a Unanimous Decision.

I think Bader's got enough ring/cage acumen to avoid the Rumble train's early power and last out til the 4th round. Anything past 2 rounds I think is Bader's fight, but I would NOT bet any $ against Johnson's power.

I think Rothwell ends up mounted by Barnett and Barnett finishes him TKO style from the mount. I don't like betting against Rothwell because every now and then he pulls a rabbit out of the hat like he did with that front headlock choke against Mitrione's lazy shot. I think Barnett is smart enough to not do anything dumb, but Rothwell is huge, even for this division and unless you're Werdum, I loathe betting on HW fights as a general personal betting rule.

Saffiedine wins because Ellenberger looked terrible his last time out.

Aubin-Mercier looked great in his last few fights and only lost in his UFC debut on a fight stemming from the TUF Nations show (who cares?). His opponent's record, however, is misleading. Ferreira's last two fights/losses are to Beneil Dariush and Dustin Poirier and a win over Ramsey Nijem. I think, however, Mercier takes this one. He's got more momentum, has looked more consistent, despite not quite having faced the same level of opposition. Time to tell if Mercier is the real deal or just looks good against flatter opposition. I want to pick Mercier by stoppage here, but I think Ferreira's tougher than his record suggests as his only two stoppages and losses total are against Poirier and Dariush (who I think may eventually challenge for the title - you heard it here first). 

MMA Betting Man's Picks - UFC Fight Night 63: Mendes vs Lamas

I think Mendes does what Lamas does but better in just about every area. Mendes looks really, really good against Aldo the second time around (but he did pull a Johnny Hendricks and shoot like 2 takedowns in 25 minutes but he also knocked Aldo down in the first round so what do I know?)

It's hard to bet against Masvidal who I think is a more versatile version of Iaquinta whose stoppage of Lauzon hasn't done much to change my impression of him.

Some girls are fighting but I don't watch women fight so I'll go with the submission record of Dudieva over Pena.

Guida is fighting which is interesting I had no idea he was still in the UFC. Gray Maynard also is on the card after some time away as well. Interestingly enough, my coach has helped corner Gray Maynard before. Poirier will try to shake off the sting of getting put down by Conor McGregor earlier this year (my how time flies) and should do so over Ferreira.

All the Gamblingz! My Bigfoot/Mir UFC Fight Night 61 Picks for Sunday

I'm gonna skip the part where we lament the formerly twice hot pissing steroid/PED Bigfoot is facing a guy who hasn't won a fight in 3 some odd years as the main event but hey, it's a Sunday, and I won't complain. Though, I think, in a strange way, we as fans supporting with our viewership these lackluster cards may be part of the larger problem, but that is a debate for another time:

Since I got back into semi-serious MMA sports picks/betting, I've gone 27-18 in picks. Not bad. I tend to go 3-4 events where I pick 60-70% correct then inexplicably have a bad event where I go something like 4-7 ( like I did UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz. It's usually cards with guys coming off of long layoffs or guys with some debatable losses and/or some undercard guys with not a lot of available footage of their early career online).

The other element is the betting lines as I think it's a no-brainer to get on Bigfoot Silva over Mir but the current line doesn't make it worth much in terms of putting several hundred on him to make some money back.


Without further ado, here we go:
I don't see Mir being any different here than he was in his previous 4 losses. I mean, you have to go back to December of 2011 to find a win (it's over Big Nog, if that's saying anything).



I don't see this being any different than Mir's losses where he gets battered on the feet, folds against the cage under pressure and gets TKO'd whilst on bottom position.


Michael Johnson is one of those guys who I was never impressed with but has quietly picked up some notable wins. Barboza is also a young guy who has looked amazing at times and flat at others (kneebar loss to the black belt/Brazilian tapping machine named Miller). That stoppage loss to Cerrone is also no big thing as a ton of guys have been beaten and/or stopped by Cerrone. In looking at their resumes I compare who Barboza's lost to versus who Johnson has beaten.
They've both got enough wins against good guys and losses to some other good ones to make this the usual pick 'em contest with Barboza a sliiiiight favorite in my mind. Barboza's fought about 6 months more recently but that time off could bring in a refreshed Johnson depending how he uses his off time.....again though, I give the slight edge to Barboza in a 3 round decision.

I'm going with Alvey due to the high number of TKO's on his record against semi-nameless opposition or not, the guy can punch. I think Khabilov is also a no brainer as far as picks go but the line makes betting on him cost prohibitive. TJ Waldburger is another no brainer. Some brazilians who both beat up a bunch of their countrymen which makes determining how skilled they are also makes that a tough fight to pick so I'll go with the guy who has the edge in experience and stoppages: Trator. 

Unibet's Guide to UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz

I'll be putting up my picks on Thursday. I went 8 for 12 on the UFC on FOX 14 card and I went 9 for 12 at the UFC Fight Night Boston card. Not bad. I'm picking back up MMA betting here soon and it's good to see I've still got the touch.