Thursday, July 9, 2015

UFC 189 Countdown and Breakdown Video Segment(s) & Picks/Prognostication(s)

McGregor vs Mendes:
I was debating/discussing this with my good friend and training partner. The usual debate about McGregor's unseen ground game came up. I see that as a plus whereby the guy has made it to a featherweight title fight without having really been put in trouble. Sure, early on his career he had holes in that. I find it hard to believe based on interviews with SBG's head coach and owner that McGregor has some glaring hole in his game. I see McGregor picking his shots, making Mendes fight his fight and there was something I saw in Mendes's pre-fight conference call on an embedded episode that was telling. I think Mendes knows this is his third shot at a title. He's failed twice in the past despite making a much better showing the second time around than the first....but I think he may suffer from the Urijah Faber syndrome at this point. I see McGregor precision striking an increasingly frustrated Mendes and making Mendes miss with his short hooks and short right hand because McGregor moves and circles well/light on his feet.
McGregor by 2nd round TKO.

Robbie Lawler vs Rory MacDonald:
I see this fight going the same way. Rory has adopted a point fighting style/stance since his early days (after the Condit fight) and guys like Condit and Lawler exploit that weakness: Rory wilts when the pressure pours on and Lawler showed that especially in the 3rd round last time around. I think its the tried and true adage of the veteran experience versus the younger generation fighter. Over a 5 round fight in particular, I see Lawler piling up the damage in spurts and punshing Rory late in the fight to a 4th or 5th round stoppage. Watching Lawler in the moment is a thing of beauty to behold. I think Lawler's ability to absorb significant damage even when getting hit is the key to avoiding how Rory normally picks apart and breaks lesser fighters.

Pickett vs Almeida:
I just see the versatility on the feet of Almeida busting up Pickett. It's going to be a tough, close fight. I think it will be a split decision and a fire fight. Pickett is hittable and I don't mean that in a good way. I think the versatility of Almeida puts the damage to the more hittable Pickett and he loses a closely contested firefight. Perhaps a late TKO by knee from the clinch followed up by punches anda  swarm from Almeida in the 3rd round.

Gunnar Nelson vs Thatch:
Thatch's loss to Henderson is telling. I see Gunnar dragging him down and winning by RNC or armbar in the 2nd round.

Bermudez vs Stephens:
I see Bermudez taking a split decision by out muscling and out volume punching Stephens over 3 rounds. 

Conor McGregor vs Chad Mendes Countdown:

Lawler vs MacDonald Countdown Segment:

Unitbet's UFC 189 Breakdown/Picks for Main Card:

 Unibet's 189 Welterweight Title Fight Breakdown:

MMA Playground: Picks by Yours Truly

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