UFC on ESPN 9 Woodley vs Burns Aftermath: Burns Usman's Woodley, Favorites take L's

Tough night of beats for my picks. Elliott and Smolka both dropped submissions to relatively unknown guys with much shorter UFC resumes.

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver:
Roosevelt showed some danger in his straight right hand which gave Weaver trouble early on at points in the fight, and Roosevelt displayed a real linear precisision in his use of punches and back control to get the finish. His tall frame combined with punching (both jab and cross) at length + grappling acumen makes him a tough nut to crack for guys at lightweight.

Ivanov edged out the first round against Augusto, but Sakai started chopping with the kicks and more effective forward pressure in the 2nd round, but Ivanov scored a takedown into half-guard with about 30 seconds left and ended the round on top. Debatable as to how to score the round pending your preference for takedowns vs forward pressure and overall strike variety (Sakai landed a heavy body kick and leg kicks throughout). A super obvious fence grab was observed but not penalized in the 3rd round, which was a close round overall with Ivanov looking the more weary of the two, in an overall close fight both in terms of strike count by round and with Ivanov doing more of the stalking forward in the 3rd round. I thought Ivanov deserved the nod, but neither fighter was egregiously treated by the awarding of a split decision for Augusto.

Dern hit a pull through/armpit grip kneebar which is a favorite submission of mine against Cifers. Cifers actually was picking Dern apart similar to Dern's last fight where she lost a fight on the feet when she wasn't able to drag her opponent to the mat. Cifers laneded some heavy shots against the catch but came forward to eagerly in the clinch and got uchimata'd but in doing so actually got top position and didn't have to stay on the ground with Dern, but took the bait and the proceeded to defend a leg entry which she had plenty of time and space to counter and clear.

Main event: Woodley vs Burns
I came into this fight thinking Woodley due to either champ burnout or not preparing to retain the belt caused his performance against Usman, but Burns showed that Woodley's reflexes and ability to narrowly evade punches then counter with his monster right hand has faded. Much like a Roy Jones Jr. there's an intelligible delay in his ability to clip guys and play the margins just enough to evade and counter. Woodley isn't one to lead and so he's forced to let Burns use a full variety of strikes (both punch combinations and kicks). 53 seconds into the first round Burns was mounted on Woodley and that was as telling as inidicator for the fight as there was going to be. I don't doubt that Woodley can still beat other welterweights but the blue print for beating him has been revealed by Burns and Usman.

Elliott vs Royval
I love watching Tim Elliott fight, man. He comes forward, throws kicks and punches at odd angles, he was working a crucifix style merkle to great effect, then throw in a half nelson style turnover to almost take the back and/or pass the guard from attacking his opponent's turtle defense. Sadly, he got caught in the second round by a head-arm triangle. Elliott got to a crucifix then switched to a palm to palm grip arm in guillotine but lost it and gave up mount in the process then while defending the back gave up the head-arm triangle.

Smolka vs Kenney
Kenney is that guy who gets paired up with a more known UFC fighter and if you haven't done your homework you find yourself on the wrong end of the pick. Smolka has some good kick catches but his looping punches missed (he did some good body work punching) and one he was tagged, Kenney latched on a high elbow guillotine from which he finished without even solidifying mount. Impressive finishing instincts.

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver

UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns Predictions

UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns Predictions:

Woodley vs Burns: It's easy to forget Woodley's dominance after that smashing he got from Usman. Different theories have been floated such as burnout from being champ or dividing his time between other opportunities and actually just training to remain champ. Burns however has only looked better since no longer cutting an insane amount of weight. Does Burns have the heat in his hands to face down the bazooka one punch one shot Woodley power? I don't see Burns taking Woodley down as Woodley fights diligently backing up to line you up for that one shot punch to wobble of KO you. Woodley will also fight as boring a fight as possible to minimize risk taking.
Woodley by split decision.

Ivanov vs Sakai - Ivanov debuted in the UFC with a 5 round fight with Cigano. If that doesn't tell you he's top tier HW then I don't know what to tell you. He used more of his takedowns and grappling in Bellator to batter lesser skilled fighters but as of his UFC career has spent more time in kickboxing battles. Would love to see him go back to that wheelhouse but we may just get him looking to win the majority of 3 rounds standing up in this one. Sakai is no walkover prospect (in the eyes of UFC fans who don't know him). His only loss is a split decision to Kongo. He's 3-0 in the UFC with 2 stoppages. That being said, Ivanov is a slick veteran who has fought all over the world after a hiatus due to being stabbed nearly to death by gangsters. Ivanov has wone the PFL and WSOF belt. He was runner up in the Bellator HW tournament. Ivanov picks this one via split decision in a close fight. His best path to winning is using his comparable grappling to drag Sakai to the mat and not test the striking acumen of Sakai that recently put away Tybura.

Cifers vs Dern - Dern will drag this one to the mat and win by armbar.

Chookagian vs Schevchenko - Chookagian by decision in a mirror of her losing title fight effort.

Tim Elliott vs someone - I'd really like to see Elliott get back on track as I've always been a fan of his style and wild man skillset. Elliott by submission.

Louis Smolka vs someone - Also a big fan of Smolka and his submission wins. Hopefully he resists the urge to scrap on the feet and gets it to the mat and slaps on a submission

ESPN Previews Woodley vs Burns

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May 30th Combat Sports Bonanza: UFC on ESPN 9 - Woodley vs Burns UFC & F2W Predictions

UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns Predictions:

Woodley vs Burns: It's easy to forget Woodley's dominance after that smashing he got from Usman. Different theories have been floated such as burnout from being champ or dividing his time between other opportunities and actually just training to remain champ. Burns however has only looked better since no longer cutting an insane amount of weight. Does Burns have the heat in his hands to face down the bazooka one punch one shot Woodley power? I don't see Burns taking Woodley down as Woodley fights diligently backing up to line you up for that one shot punch to wobble of KO you. Woodley will also fight as boring a fight as possible to minimize risk taking.
Woodley by split decision.

Ivanov vs Sakai - Ivanov debuted in the UFC with a 5 round fight with Cigano. If that doesn't tell you he's top tier HW then I don't know what to tell you. He used more of his takedowns and grappling in Bellator to batter lesser skilled fighters but as of his UFC career has spent more time in kickboxing battles. Would love to see him go back to that wheelhouse but we may just get him looking to win the majority of 3 rounds standing up in this one. Sakai is no walkover prospect (in the eyes of UFC fans who don't know him). His only loss is a split decision to Kongo. He's 3-0 in the UFC with 2 stoppages. That being said, Ivanov is a slick veteran who has fought all over the world after a hiatus due to being stabbed nearly to death by gangsters. Ivanov has wone the PFL and WSOF belt. He was runner up in the Bellator HW tournament. Ivanov picks this one via split decision in a close fight. His best path to winning is using his comparable grappling to drag Sakai to the mat and not test the striking acumen of Sakai that recently put away Tybura.

Cifers vs Dern - Dern will drag this one to the mat and win by armbar.

Chookagian vs Schevchenko - Chookagian by decision in a mirror of her losing title fight effort.

Tim Elliott vs someone - I'd really like to see Elliott get back on track as I've always been a fan of his style and wild man skillset. Elliott by submission.

Louis Smolka vs someone - Also a big fan of Smolka and his submission wins. Hopefully he resists the urge to scrap on the feet and gets it to the mat and slaps on a submission.
---

F2Win - Gabi Garcia is gonna smash someone in NoGi. Dante Leon vs Dante Leon which should be a solid match. I was hoping to see Tama pass more in the Crelinsten match, but with less fear of heel hooks from Leon, we may see Tama play on top more. Leon is comfortable doing either as evidenced by his matches at Kasai with Canuto and at ADCC. I doubt Leon is afraid of Tama's leg locks/heel hooks specifically so I see this one being a more positional battle. Tama may try to impose 50/50 early against Leon to slow him down at the outset of the match and try his luck there. I think Leon takes this one by hammering at Tama's guard over the second half of the match with more dynamic side to side movement and rolling backtake attempts mixed in. 

Gripfighting for BJJ Playlist - Reality > Theory

Realized I should put together some longer sequences of gripfighting from matches of mine to show the sequence of what it looks like in real time with resets by the referee, the boundary, and the pace and flow of a match:


Created a playlist for the 4 Episodes of gripfighting basics for BJJ.
The topics in the playlist include:
Episode 1 - Basic gripfighting vs defensive posture
Episode 2.1 - Stripping the Lapel Grip
Episode 2.2 - Lapel Wrap Omoplata Counter to lapel grip
Episode 3 - Addressing the Fist Punch grip (knuckles down sleeve grip)
Episode 4 - Cross Collar Grip Counter
Episode 5 - Gripfighting in Competition

Frustratingly enough the individual episodes I've put together don't come up very well in searches for gripfighting on YouTube's algorhythm. What you'll get when you search "gripfighting for BJJ" is the usual suspects of Kesting, Keenan, and a smattering of other folks who having not seen them use any of the things they're showing in actual competition, nor their students, who knows if it works.

I had a wrestling coach whose mantra was always "the truth is what works," and as a result, if it's not replicable in a duress/competitve setting against competent opposition, I'm not interested.
The same ethos applies to these 14 part grip switching fluff leg lock series you see on Instagram. By the 4th transition on a leg entanglement anyone with even remotely competent skills will have escaped their knee to a likely safe position.

At any rate, the basics I show come from my background in Judo, but more importantly come from having competed in Brazilian JiuJitsu for the past 10 years. 2009 I began competing in BJJ in the Gi.
The concepts and grips below anticipate the gripping tendencies of opponents in JiuJitsu.
Even more crucially, there are no gripping restrictions or parameters (other than no fingers inside the sleeve or pant) AND your opponent in JiuJitsu can at any point in time decide to simply sit down. When you're watching Judo you are watching the product of a multitude of gripping and time limit restrictions on how long you can keep a particular grip without attacking (3 seconds at best, but basically almost immediately in the eyes of the ref).

Keep this in mind when watching Judo for BJJ and other theories espoused by folks on this topic.

There are no secrets: Don't let them sell you a re-invented wheel

There is good technique. There is good understanding of fundamentals. The myth of the natural is not something that I'm even going to bother debunking. If you believe some people have some large innate advantage I'm not going to waste time convincing you otherwise. My short response is that natural advantage is an easy fall back to explain small differences multiplied over time for which you cannot account or an unwillingness to examine to what extent you actually prioritize your craft.

Moving on...on my Instagram I've been posting over the past few weeks old school primarily Japanese leg lock finishes from Shooto and even smaller tournaments (Lumax) that can be found on YouTube & UFC Fight Pass. I post them as proof that the same baseline leg locks we see in grappling and MMA aren't new. Nothing is new. Perhaps the structure of how it is taught, or the prevalence of venues which allow them has broaded/deepened, but the base principles of attacking the leg are not new. You could argue that new forms of lapel guard did not exist in competitive Jiu-Jitsu in much capacity until you saw some Lapel-oplata or were limited to ideas such as threading the lapel between the leg ala Bernardo Faria or Saggioro more recently, but by and large there has been some obviously discernible change in the form, function, and utility of lapel aided Jiu-Jitsu. I don't, or have yet, to see much in the old school leg locks that doesn't exactly mimic the "new age" or "contemporary" leg locking systems. The Danaher/Renzo "control the second leg" or "double trouble" and handfight to the finish is unseen in old MMA footage and Shooto but as back then it was MMA, as the main leg locking venue, you often saw the attack of the leg from giving up top position and diving on the sole leg. The core set of finishing leg entanglement positions is laregely unchanged or improved upon. The comprehension and systemitization by Cummings and Danaher (and to what extent who deserves credit is a matter of debate depending who you ask) are the true additions of merit. Their use in competition in a non-MMA setting also is a venue for a true deep dive into modifying and discarding theories regarding grip, breaking mechanics, transitions, and escapes.

All the Instagram fluff leg locks you see with 14 different grip switches never turn up in MMA or even in competitive grappling for a reason. They're not real and even if they were it would mean you were in such control of your opponent and anticipating their reactions that you would have been able to tap them 7 transitions previously anyway. If anything, the access to information thanks to the internet has led to some improvements in awareness and defense but this is still laregly misunderstood because guys are basing their efficacy of defense on utilizing it against their training partners who themselves are sub par leg lockers. I don't care about what works in your gym against your students. I don't care about your whatever system that works at local tournaments in an area with no serious competitors showing up.

The most valuable insight I got from Eddie Cummings was "the biggest threat to your JiuJitsu is not what doesn't work, but what seems to work, or works against sub-optimal opposition." I'm paraphrasing but that always stuck with me.
The biggest threat to your JiuJitsu is spending time on positions which cannot be reliably forced/achieved against knowledgable opposition. Sure, the palm to palm grip counter foot lock from double trouble works, but knowledgeable guys don't get tapped by it or don't even let their foot be placed there. Sure the calf-slicer is a submission, but the opponent has to not be paying attention or react incorrectly to the position/hips relative to the lock to get tapped. Et cetera.

When you start competing, even at the Advanced/Expert/whatever level, you start to realize how many of your opponents either panic tap, or get tapped due to a lack of competent defense. You didn't overwhelm knowledgable opposition, you had an iron age weapon vs a bronze or stone age weapon. This is only exacerbated by a black belt with a school who's crafting programs based on beating their own students who already often have some deeply subsconscious pedestal effect they put onto their coach even while rolling or while they inadvertently find themselves in a dominant/advantageous position.

In the Gi, the transitions are different, especially without reaping across the hip. The grips of a top position player to pass and backstep are also more formidable. Being a competent NoGi leg locker is not the same as tapping a competitive adult black belt with positional awareness. My point in all this is that the real secret is in training methodology and positional training to develop nuanced understanding of the reactions and transitions of knowledgable opposition. Crafting theory in the training room is ONLY the beginning of developing and hammering out a truly matrix level understanding of a position. A guy like Lucas Leite comes to mind. He has competed absolute, Gi, NoGI, and for years on end continually modified and refined his outside/Coyoto half-guard position. Sean Spangler, a previous coach of mine knew more about head/arm choke/front head lock variations than anyone I've yet to encounter in person or online. This has been a long term project of his for well over a decade.

This indefatiguable pursuit of experties is the true mark of what I define as a "professional" and also the basis upon which I discard standard explanations of "heart" and "luck" or "natural" or "secret" explanations and above all the "reinventing the wheel" phase we seem to be in to varying degrees in JiuJitsu.

A primary motivation of mine for teaching is the efficacy of systems. You can discredit the takedowns I teach based on my background in Judo and MMA as not working for JiuJitsu, but if folks with no combat sports background can repeatedly score with components of the takedown curriculum I teach and implement, then it's a different conversation. 

BJJ Scout's BJJ Digest: Ryan Hall, Ferguson vs Gaethje, et al...

UFC Overeem vs Harris & F2W 139/140 Recap & Reflections

Lots to unpack here, F2Win returns to hosting events sans the crowd, the UFC rumbles on, and ESPN/UFC milk a man's family tragedy for marketing ploy.

I found it pretty cringe to watch the UFC and ESPN milk the Harris family tragedy for programming as a way to hype his fight with Overeem. I'll just leave it at that.

Moving on, at F2Win 139 Tama faced Crelinsten with Tama coming off of his NoGi world black belt title awhile back and Crelinsten the consensus "world's most dangerous brown belt" (in NoGi). Tama decided to play legs/feet with Crelinsten early on until he nearly got popped in 50/50 and after that was decidedly & visibly more gunshy in the leg entanglements. He spent 3-4 mins of the second half of the match to counter and foil Ethan's passing attempts from bottom. I guess Tama's foot attacks garnered him the win, but I saw it going to Ethan tbh after that near finish from the 50/50 heel hook attempt and doing most of the work trying to pass with Tama content to simply recompose guard for 3-4 minutes of the second half of the match. Other than that the Paiva match was solid to watch but I tuned out during some of the other boring HW Gi matches. I get it when you gotta sell tickets to put on the bottom line of events, but if there's no audience and no ticket sales, I'm confused as to why we had to suffer through boring aged black belt matches. Santos vs Gomes & Paiva vs Hammond both put on better big man Gi matches than I've seen at most F2Win events when the second half of the event really starts to lag with a lot of big man black belt Master 3+ match-ups slowing down the pace of the event.

F2W 140: Jimenez vs Almeida was the real one to watch as Agazarm hasn't competed in the Gi in ages. Jimenez had some nice backtake attempts throughout but was also shut down in 50/50 by Almeida who used a lapel to solidify the position and control the younger more action heavy Jimenez. I felt like Jimenez probably attacked more throughout the match and was semi surprised they gave it to Almeida given the action/transitions was/were pressed largely by Jimenez.

Agazarm vs Moizinho: no surprised here as Moizinho's much stronger Gi resume and focus on Gi training rather than AJ heading off to Bellator crystallized into what you'd expect: within about a minute Moizinho had passed and/or almost passed his guard, was threatening an ezekiel choke, but the 6 minute mark he was hunting for a lapel feed/cross collar choke from knee through position with AJ still largely just hanging onto half-guard, Moizinho shot a triangle from a sprawl, omoplata, to sweep, then armbar, then even foot on the shoulder breaking mechanics to try and finish the armbar, then to the omoplata again. All in total, getting as dominated as was possible without getting finished. But, he came to the mat with nunchuks guys, so he's like a great showman, right? Look over there!

UFC Overeem vs Harris:
Overeem survived an onslaught that Dominic Cruz's ref would've stopped probably 4 punches in, then stopped to have the cut checked, in every possible way to try and end the fight. Overeem appeared to wobbly Harris with a kick, then as he drove him across the cage, put him to the mat and him out from top position ride with punches until it was over in the 2nd round. Harris doesn't lose any stock by losing to Overeem as he nearly finished him, but his ground work in a division with guys like Stipe, and Blaydes is a TOTAL liability.

Barboza vs Ige: Ige came with the right gameplan which was to stay in Barboza's face and unleash sharp punching combinations for the better part of 3 rounds. It was a split decision and neither guy could've complained for getting the nod or the loss as close as it was.

Jotko showcased improved striking as he beat Anders in an entertaining fight that went all over the cage with both guys staying busy with punches, kicks, elbows, in the clinch et cetera.

Chikadze struggled to showcase his stopping power against Rivera who despite coming on short notice accounted himself well against a far superior stand-up technician with a true striking pedigree to his credit. Chikadze picked up a unanimous decision but his unwillingness to showcase other parts of his game to finish a guy who wasn't going to be put away via strikes suggests more gameplanning and MMA fight IQ needed before he'll threaten the upper echelon of the division.

Nascimento vs Mayes was a solid HW battle with the more polish Nascimento patiently walking down Mayes and pouncing once he got him down to get the RNC.

Elkins vs Landwehr: Landwehr is the stand n' bleed guy who will try to visually fool the judges by taking punches and then waiting for his opponent to come meet him in the center of the ring. It's not a gameplan that will work against more craft veterans. Elkins for his part didn't bite and I think the judgest largely got it wrong, because with the gushing caught, I thought the strikes that snapped back the head and stopped the other guy from moving in his tracks were when Elkins tagged Landwehr. It's a crafty play to act as though you're the one stalking forward and waving your hands, but really Landwehr is an innacurate counter puncher who can't hit a moving target, and largely missed Elkins even with his less than tactical striking. I wasn't fooled by the gamesmanship and hand waving but some the judges, but if you saw the event you saw some wildly suspect scoring, so y'know.....

BJJ Scout's BJJ Digest: Craig Jones talks Magalhaes & Other Breaking Joints Moments...

Post Smith vs Teixeira Thoughts & Aftermath, Moises with the leg lock win, & Rothwell proves too Big for OSP

By the 2nd round the pop in Smith's punches and speed was waning and his mouth was open. Teixeira, a lot like Oleinik is a guy that fights in the same gear but can do it for 3-5 rounds with no let up. Teixeira rolled with the jabs and the punches early on, avoided any big shots and getting stunned and walked Smith down. Once the takedowns presented themselves he kept Smith under duress to further sap his energy. Smith's corner sent him out to take punishment in the final round in the fight. It was plain on Smith's face with the faraway look in his eyes that he wasn't going to turn around the fight under the onslaught of Teixeira's consistent pressure and pace that had shown no signs of faltering. Poor cornering as the corner's job is to make the difficult decision to wave off the fight and avoid UNECCESSARY damage to prolong the professional career of a fighter. 

Elsewhere Rothwell proved far too big a HW for OSP. I think OSP would have fared better with a Lins or another HW that's more like  LHW who doesn't want to cut than the towering, awkward Rothwell who has battered other lifelong HW's like Barnett et cetera. OSP got paid, didn't take a ton of damage, and did no damage to his LHW reputation for the outing. 

Simon outwrestled Borg who has nice punches and body punches when he lets them go, but never put them together en masse. Simon put Borg on the mat and chained his wrestling together to prevent any lengthy offensive periods for Borg who didn't look outsized by finally being in his right weight class after missing weight at 125 more times than is worth mentioning, but Simon looked the better mixed martial artist in combining level changes and punches to drag Borg to the mat and pass his guard at times. 

Arlovski won a decision with scores that were wider than I would have expected. Arlovski is one of the few guys who can win a decision backing up in a stand-up engagement. A good fight for Lins to face that level of competition and striking experience, but a stylistically flat affair with kickboxing throughout. Arlovski continues to be the gatekeeper willing to fight whatever veteran, prospect, or familiar face they throw his way. A shoutout to Arlovski for showing southpaw stance in the fight, and in his post fight interview saying and showing that he is still at this age after 20 years in the UFC evolving his fight acumen and wheelhouse. 

Moises! With the double leg, to single leg, to fall back on the leg and transition to a belly down ankle lock. Submission of the night if there ever was one. It's a standard Renzo blue basement style series you could easily see Garry Tonon hitting in ONE FC (and in fact has a similar single leg to sit back on the leg finish. Moises looked outclassed on the feet but showed the type of wherewithal to listen to his corner and go out and do exactly what he was told and fight a different fight in round 2, a rare skill even at this level in MMA as guys accept a pace and style of a fight and then just finish that out regardless of ever decreasing odds of winning after the first round. 

Dober picked up a finish over Hernandez as Hernandez stayed on the backpedal for almost the entire fight but Dober corraled him to the cage with lateral movement and never stopped landing heavy shots. The punches accumulated much like the Ferguson/Gaethje affair and the referee wisely called off the fight despite Hernandez still being on his feet. Hernandez is a skilled fighter, but his inability to switch gears in the fight is concerning. He had a big win in his debut over Dariush and followed it up with a win over Mercier, but in his 3rd UFC fight faced Cerrone which was likely way too big a jump in competition. Since that loss he won a decision over Trinaldo and now has a loss by stoppage to Dober. It's time for him to slow his roll, polish some new skills as his wrestling was there when he needed it in the first 2 rounds, but not keeping his opponent down and pocketing rounds and dishing out some punishment once he had his opponent down cost him the fight. Had he drained Dober, or put him on the backfoot with the takedowns by parlaying them to winning rounds and sapping Dober's gas tank, he could've either won the fight and/or not been stopped in the third round. 

Post Cringe King Era: Flyweight Division Landscape

If the King of Cringe stays retired, it's safe to say it'll be worse than when GSP won the Middleweight belt and retired again (that left us watching 2 guys coming off of a loss fighting for a title: Romero vs Whitaker and Romero failed to make weight meaning Whitaker was the only one who could even "win" the belt....what a trainwreck that was. Romero would then miss weight again and lose to Whitaker again with a second title shot). With no clear title holder casual fans recognize but a bunch of guys most fans vaguely recall seeing fight on various prelims over the years it's a hard sell to think it will move beyond that slot in the matchmaking and preference with fans. At least when Cejudo was flyweight champ it was someone that as cringe as he was, folks recognized and had a marketing leg up over Mighty Mouse who never seemed to do more than film Countdown specials of him playing games online and waltzing over out classed opponents. Mighty Mouse despite his precision and acumen for fighting never took hold in the public viewership.

The flyweight division was dogged by rumors of being folded until Cejudo beat Mighty Mouse, so, bear with me as I'm less than hopeful for some mighty resurgence.

Figueiredo - 7-1 in the UFC, but also missed weight in his last win over Benavidez and they were slated to run it back. He could have won the belt as it was vacated at that point but missed weight and now Benavidez gets yet another title shot (think Urijah Faber). He's got wins over Moraga, Pantoja, and Elliott amongst others.

Formiga - he's got 15 fights in the UFC, which is wild. He dropped his last two fights to Benavidez and Moreno. He's got wins over Sasaki, Nguyen, Pettis, and is the guy who's got a win over Figueiredo. He's a tough sell coming off of two losses but much like LHW, it feels like guys can have a win or 2 then end up fighting for the belt as most of the guys have a loss in their last 2-3 fights.

Benavidez -  the dude's got 19 UFC fights on this record. He's got wins over everyone from Formiga and Cejudo to Bagauunitov, Mighty Mouse, Moraga, and Elliott but has dropped fights to Figueiredo and Sergio Pettis, Mighty Mouse, and even Dominic Cruz (up a weight class). He'll be running it back with Figueiredo for the vacant title at some point, but I didn't see anything in that first round or two that suggests it will go differently the second time around. The long career and accumulation of damage I think means that this is Benavidez actual last title shot.

Pantoja Moreno- 6-2 in the UFC with losses to Figueiredo and Ortiz but wins over: Schnell, Reis, Sasaki, Moreno, and & Seery. Figueiredo is the common thread for handing a bunch of these flyweights a loss in the UFC.

Askarov - it says a lot that a guy who's 1-0-1 in the UFC if ranked 6th in this division. He stopped Tim Elliott and had a split draw with Moreno in his UFC debut but it's a hard sell to put him in a title fight with 2 UFC fights under his belt.

Tim Elliott - currently ranked 11th, I've included him because he had one of the better showings against Demtrious Johnson after winning a title shot by winning the TUF flyweight season. He's 2-3 since losing that title shot to Mighty Mouse. He's won against Louis Smolka and Mark De La Rose but lost to Askarov, Figueiredo, and Nguyen. 

Post Cejudo Cringe Era Thoughts on UFC Bantamweight Vacancy & Tournament Options: Cruz, Moraes, Sterling, Yan, Sandhagen et al

At the press conference following the King of Cringe's retirement announcement post fight he floated the idea of a 4 man tournament, it's not a bad idea and also not without precedent in the UFC and MMA. Bellator & PFL have opted to retain this semi linear approach to belts as a way to differentiate their sales pitch and it harkens back to the early days of the UFC for all of us long-time fans.

It's a big ole mess as you look below at the records of the top 5 ranked guys. What's funnier is Dominic Cruz coming off of a 3 year layoff wasn't even ranked coming into the fight last night.

Diving further into who that might entail at bantameight in the UFC we have the following:

Moraes:  5-2 in the UFC. Most recently took a split decision over Aldo, has wins over Sterling, Dodson, Rivera and 1-1 with Assuncao. Also has a loss to Cejudo.

Sterling:  10-3 in the UFC. Has losses to Moraes, Assuncao, and Carrway. Notable wins over Renan Barao, Rivera, & Mizugaki.

Yan:  6-0 in the UFC (thought Ferguson was on a much longer streak and still hadn't fought for undisputed title). Has notable wins over Faber, Rivera, Dodson.

Sandhagen: 5-0 in the UFC. Has wins over Lineker, Assuncao, and Alcantara.

Assuncao: 11-4 in the UFC. Has losses to Koch, Dillashaw, Moraes & Sandhagen. Has wins over Moraes, Sterling, Carraway, and Munhoz.

Dominic Cruz: 5-2 in the UFC, inaugural Bantamweight champ (defeated Faber to crown the title after folding of WEC). Has 2 wins over Faber and wins over Mizugaki, Dillashaw, & Demetrious Johnson and losses to Cody Garbrandt & Cejudo.

On that note, Garbrandt it currently ranked 9th on the UFC website. He is out of the talks though because he is coming off of 3 stoppage losses no matter how dubious 2 of them were against the currently suspended EPO cheat Dillashaw. Garbrandt has wins over Cruz, Mizugaki, and Almeida. 

Thoughts on UFC 249: Ferguson vs Gaethje & Implications for Khabib

I've always felt like Gaethje stylistically, is a tougher fight for Khabib. Gaethje as wobbled most of the guys he has fought with his hands. He doesn't need to kick like a Barboza to set up his stand-up bag of weapons. Gaethje's kicks are low, little telegraphing, and accumulate quickly in the first couple rounds, and as opponents stand more still in front of him, he lands his damaging shots. Gaethje also showed a patience in this fight he has not shown in previous fights. He would land the big shot and rather than pour on for a finish and come blitzing forward until they hit the cage, he would circle off, reset, and start again.

This was the kind of gameplan necessary not only to defeat Ferguson who thrives in that kind of affair, but also to prepare for a Khabib fight: a measured 5 rounds fight with the win coming from devastating punches landed across multiple rounds and devoid of rushing forward that will allow Khabib to lock his hands and force it to the mat. Khabib struggled to implement his gameplan against Iaquinta, and Gaethje is a far more dangerous puncher content to do far more than jab, in fact, Gaethje actually didn't utilize his jab much if at all last night and managed to find the timing, distance, and head movement to set up both his key punches for the fight: right cross and left hook.

My chief suspicion in this fight was the weight cut twice in several weeks. I say this not as a detriment to Gaethje but in that Ferguson fought such a different fight. Gone with the chopping kicks to the mid section and the constant forward pressure talking his opponents over the first couple rounds that have led to the photos you have seen of his opponents busted up. Without that forward pressure, Fergun was unable to land the elbows which have been such a tool in his arsenal in accumulating damage and battering opponents. And left with a punch and counter punch style fight, Gaethje's counter right hand and left hook and head movement proved far too much for Ferguson over the duration of the fight. Ferguson's constant movement and resulting pressure were nowhere to be seen, causing me to believe his legs felt heavy/he simply didn't have it in the tank. I can't think of a reason why a fighter with such a history of keeping a torrid pace with basically every strike in the tool box and granby rolls and rolling somersaults et cetera suddently didn't have the energy for that gameplan other than the decision to cut weight twice in such a short amount of time. I had read a comment by him about doing the first weight cut without his nutritionist/weight cut person which also concerned me. At any rate, it was an amazing fight and Gaethje won and this is in no way an effort to discredit his win, but Ferguson fight a completely different fight (other than his durability) than has been shown in his until last night consecutive win streak. 

UFC 249 Results & Reactions: Cringe King Retires, Gaethje Interim Champ, Fabricio Falters...

I'm gonna just skip over that Jacare had a family member test positive and he and his cornermen showed up and were around others at the venue....as though he couldn't have gotten tested or the UFC couldn't have made that happen prior to him making the trip to the UFC venue....

Cringe King wins questionable stoppage and retires: Talk about worst case scenario...I think he's angling for more money that Dana doesn't want to pay him because Cejudo has never caught on with mainstream fans of any demographic. He's too cringe, too weird, and not in the bizarre Ferguson way, in the "try hard" bad WWE way that also isn't funny. Cruz was adjusting to the leg heavy attack of Cejudo at range at the close of the 2nd round. At any rate, if Cejudo retires, 2 belts are up for grabs. Cruz vs a returning Dillashaw is the best fight on paper to make, as close as their last fight was, but does the UFC put in a guy who's been proven to have used EPO twice in his career in an immediate title fight coming off of a layoff/suspension/and violent KO loss? Do two guys with losses fight for the now vacant belt?

You can angle Cruz better for the vacant belt fight with the questionable stoppage than you can Dillashaw, and then perhaps have Aljamain and Yan Petr as the title contender fight in the co-main.

Niko Price lost via accumulated damage to the slick counter punching power of Luque, Price did his best work when he would chain together striking exchanges with takedowns but didn't sustain the gameplan success throughout. Ngannou showed why he's the best guy not lined up to fight for the belt next (though I do believe DC takes him down and batters him the way Stipe did) and Oleinik continued his Frankenstein stalk and plod and batter and possibly submit you gameplan winning ways against the returning Fabricio who can't complain as in 2 rounds he had top positiion and the back and various other dominant positions against the crafty Oleinik. Bryce Mitchell put on a masterful MMA grappling clinic on Rosa that was debilitatingly one-sided. Esparza picked up a win over Waterson because when you back up for nearly the entire fight, some judges have a hard time thinking you won.

Greg Hardy picked up a win after Castro stopped fighting and just moved around for 2 rounds following hurting his own foot with a low kick. Alvey and Spann opened up the broadcast with a lukewarm affair but at that point, we were all just glad to be watching a UFC or any sporting event TBH. Kattar and Stephens put on an exciting stand-up fight with Kattar clipping him with a horizontal elbow then followed up with punches and an elbow on the ground. Pettis picked up a close decision over Cowboy in a fight that could've gone either way. 

Inside the Octagon Breaks Down UFC 249: Ferguson vs Gaethje

Beyond excited for this, for Cruz vs King of Cringe Cejudo, and the entire card.

Travis Stevens Commentates His 2016 Olympic Run

NoGi Judo HL Extra for the Day: Karo Parisiyan

It's sad that Karo's accomplishments are largely lost to the sands of time and lost on newer MMA fans. He was in that era where many a "title shot" was promised then forgotten if you got hurt or didn't win the fight in an entertaining way and there were more "title contender" maybe fights than you could even recall.

Back when I was first strating to train MMA and the mantra was wrestling is the only takedown style that will realistically work in MMA, Karo was a big inspiration to me, and has continued to be in thinking outside the box for training submission grappling.

Karo, not once but twice (that I can clearly recall), was promised a title shot by Dana White only to have it given to someone else while he was sidelined with a groin injury and then also a back injury (if I recall correctly).

He lost a unanimous decision to GSP (in a competitive fight that saw him utilizing the Kimura to counter GSP's vaunted wrestling), and has wins over: Nick Diaz, Drew Fickett, Shonie Carter, Matt Sera, Josh Burkman, Ryo Chonon, Nick Thompson, & Phil Baroni amongst others.

NoGi TaiOtoshi Takedown by Travis Stevens (& some of my thoughts on NoGi/MMA/takedowns/grips)

In Judo we emphasize a "tokuiwaza" or pet technique, the essentail throw that you spend the bulk of your career crafting and perfecting. Mine early on was seionage/shoulder throw (why I can do it from 6+ grip variations and both standing or dropping to my knees or seiotoshi leg across style), and later on it was Tai Otoshi. Tai Otoshi, sadly doesn't translate well to NoGi because classically, it is a Te Waza or hand technique. Modifying it for NoGi requires an underhook or an overhook/whizzer, but I've actually landed it with just a 2 on 1 wrist grip both in Gi and NoGi (but that's for another day). I used to avoid the overhook/whizzer for control in throwing NoGi back when I was fighting MMA as it allows for the re-roll by strong/competent wrestlers and creates a scramble upon hitting the mat. Now that I have more awareness of backstepping into the legs and other transitions as we hit the mat, I actually like utilizing the lat muscle over the back grip or other "inferior" grips as the entice your opponent to charge in for the takedown be it a double or single leg and with the grip over the back or head the backstep into the legs actually presents itself throughout the transition. Sakuraba is one such example of a guy with some competent wrestling (low single and outside single from standing) but primarily used the Kimura to counter wrestle much stronger and skilled wrestlers. Vagner Rocha comes to mind as he minimally uses offensive wrestling in his matches but the previous ADCC was a great example of him provoking opponets to shoot by harassing them with borderline illegals clubs and collar ties and sloves and slaps so that he could counter Kimura their takedown.

Every UFC Neck Crank Finish: "If they tap, it counts"

Back when I was a blue belt, I was at a Royce Gracie seminar and he said "tucking your chin is not a defense to the choke," and that always stuck with me. Sure, in training we tend to abide by the "not being a d*ck" credo, but for those competing or fighting, that has to go out the window. Having done countless back attack rounds EBI style at Renzo's in the city and in Brooklyn, this is the truth. If you think getting crossfaced is miserable, there's a whole lot more to be wary of once your back is taken. That being said, guys will substitute fruitless face crushing for diligent handfighting and also actually hampen their RNC finishing/handfighting/trapping skills from the back as well if they think the mandible crush is the only way to get the finish. The timeline I suggest for anyone I coach is spend the first few years looking to get under the chin and fingers covering the far shoulder et cetera (elbow of the choking hand in line with the opponent's sternum) but if you're going to compete, begin crushing the face as part of your sustained back attack along with handfighting, the body triangle, and back retention skills for when they utilize your digging for the choke or the rolling/flail to escape. 

May 13th & May 16th UFC Picks & Predictions: Smith vs Teixeira & Overeem vs Harris

May 13th:
Smith vs Teixeira - I still can't get over how Lionheart had his shot at the title after so many balls to the wall performances and then opted to basically barely show up against Jon Jones (who basically carried him the last 2 rounds and wasn't even striking him much on the ground after taking him down early in both rounds). Teixeira wants a shot at Jon Jones again more than I think Smith does TBH. I see Teixeira finishing Smith as Teixeira has to know the window is closing on his career due to age.

Rothwell is a huge man. He's been a tough stylistic match-up for other big guys (like Barnett) who looked hestitant on the feet due to Rothwell's reach/range). I dont think OSP has the size or striking acumen to not get finished by Rothwell. Rothwell was on his way to a likely title shot until a steroid test sidelined him. OSP isn't a HW and Rothwell will show that pretty quickly in this fight. Rothwell is like a more grappling savvy Tim Sylvia and no matter how awkward his style, it is one that many guys don't have the skillset to thwart. Rothwell by front choke like he did to Barnett.

Ray Borg will probably miss weight and act like he's confused as to why. I see him being a guy who even when he moves up in weight still manages to miss weight yet again (like Hendricks et cetera). Fight wise though I think he wins a decision over Simon who's faced less top flight competition.

Vettori vs Roberson will be a barnburner with someone winning a close decision.
Johnson vs Moises - Johnson has faced most of the guys worth facing in two weight classes. He tends to fate later in fights due to his high output (like the Diaz fight) but is dangerous with notable wins over title contenders previously. Moises record as far as wins goes is evenly a third submissions, stoppages, and decisions but the stoppages and decisions have become few and far between since graduating to the UFC. I don't see enough danger in his game to best Johnson who will either stop him with punches or decision him due to far better resume experience.

Arlovski continues gatekeeper status against another dangerous HW (they're all dangerous bc any one guy can hit you and stop you in that division. Lins has 3 TKO's and a submission in his last 4 fights. Arlovski is 1-4-1 in his last 6. Arlovski's skillset and age mean he can potentially beat anyone on any given night or get wobbled and stopped. More telling is Travis Browne was the last fighter he finished (2015). Arlovski either wins 2/3 rounds for a decision or loses. Mathematically, not a great spot to be in. The obvious pick is Lins via stoppage.

May 16th:

Overeem vs Harris - Harris is 3-1-1 with a NC due to an illegal kick. Overeem is 2-3 in his last 5 with stoppages due to strikes/takedowns and while standing. Harris has the skills but has not faced the competition level of Overeem (few men have). It's hard to think Harris will overwhelm the ring acumen of Overeem who can pick him apart over the course of the fight nor get blitzed by Harris and put away. Overeem by decision.

Barboza vs Ige: Barboza by TKO or submission. Ige has decisioned far lesser fighters than Barboza and this will not be a fight he can win by decisions. Barboza has way too many tools standing, clinch, and on the ground to hope to win a decision.

Jotko vs Anders: Anders has taken too many fights too quickly without polishing his tools that he came with into the uFC. Jotko has the likely savvy to survive early round surges, get him to the ground and/or win a decision as he has 14 previous wins.

Darren Elkins is later on this card and regardless of how the fight goes, always excited to see him. 

UFC 249 Countdown: Ferguson vs Gaethje

Not gonna lie, feels like a major jinx to post this, but here goes:

Full Episode:

 

Travis Stevens Match Analysis (Insight to Professional Level Gameplanning)

Watching this reminds me that I often under appreciate the level to which Judo preparation influenced my approach to JiuJitsu. In Judo early on you develop or are mandated which throws you will work on or look to perfect. This approach to a sole throw and then researching in training the gripping, footwork, stepping patterns, and opponent reactions against vary body types and right vs left stances et cetera begins that methodical approach to precision that I often see lacking in JiuJitsu teaching methodology and training.

More specifically:
It's always amazing to me how JiuJitsu schools will either devote no time to standing techniques/takedowns/throws or will do them a couple times the week before a tournament even though literally every single match begins on the feet. Sequentially, what it also means is that many schools then have a dearth of guys who want to be on bottom and are actually not entirely comfortable passing in matches. This is why you see guys stall for 8 minutes then in the waning 30 seconds of the match have a 50/50 battle to top and win by a sweep or advantage etc. JiuJitsu coaches will scoff at learning JiuJitsu through videos or online but then will have never scored a takedown while competing and teach takedowns themselves. There's always danger of inaccuracy in teaching things non-competition tested and perfected solely in the gym. Recently I had been working on a Gi backtake using the belt and a lapel grip but was unwilling to break it down online and post it because it has only been used in the gym as I have been too busy preparing for NoGi events to compete in the Gi. I feel better about it now because I recently saw Keenan use the EXACT grips to take the back at Euros, but again, I'll keep my mouth shut publicly until I have evidence that it works in competition against competent opposition.



What is also means is that they're not training their guard against guys who actually want to pass (primarily). Leandro Lo opted midway through his career to spend more time passing (he also had access to the Miyaos) and thus by the time he reached black belt had the groundwork laid to develop a passing style that has defeated all manner of guards. Lucas Lepri is another. No one has access to him or his level of passing in their gym other than when they face him once a year at Worlds or Pans et cetera. The trade off though is losing matches along the way at the colored belts and even at black belt as you're facing the mathematically advantageous position of guard (sweep, submit, stand-up, take the back or a combination thereof).

When coaching folks that are going to be competing, you have to control what is within your locus that will happen in a match. Situational rounds and rolling should emulate resetting from out of bounds, losing position, lazy and downright incompetent reffing as this WILL HAPPEN IN MATCHES. A short example is that in training, I often may finish a sweep just before a reset is necessary (due to the shape of the mat space or when it is crowded), when we reset I adopt a neutral position and then must commit to scoring another sweep. I read Ronda Rousey's mother say that you have to be prepared to score/submit the best in the world twice in a match. Often with a minute or 30 seconds left in training, regardless of how the round has gone, I will create a scenario in my head like "I'm down by 5 points" or "must submit before the round ends" or "get to top position and score an advantage with a submission attempt" so force myself out of the comfort zone of reaction or basic flow state. "Failing to prepare is preparing to fail."

UFC 249 Picks & Predictions: Ferguson vs Gaethje, Cejudo vs Cruz, Ngannou vs Rozenstruick

We're almost there. It feels premature to even get excited at this point with the moving goal posts or lack of any discernible plan by local and national govt, but no decree has come down to shut down fight island or the onset of these fights, so I'll bite.

Ferguson vs Gaethje because Khabib and Tony will never fight. Gaethje has been stopped by an accumulation of body shots that led to going back upstairs and being finished ala Eddie Alvarez. Poirier also, similarly used his range and reach and combination of weapons to put Gaethje away late in the fight. Gaethje has famously predicted he'll either put Ferguson away early or get choked out late, and while that is a sensible prediction on his part, no man with his level of success is the mindless brawler he purports himself to be. I think much like McGregor he is a shrewd tactician and much smarter fight IQ wise than he is given credit. That being said Ferguson has a ton of damaging weapons and a style that both damages and drains his opponents. I'm interested to see either man face Khabib as Gaethje is a dangerous puncher who doesn't need kicks to win fights (thus better suited to defend the takedown) and Ferguson can keep a pace despite being hurt on the ground that would wear on Khabib late in the fight.

At any rate, they're fighting one another and my pick is Ferguson. Ferguson's make weight campaign even after the event was canacelled was a real mind warfare flex move. Ferguson is the type of multi-faceted striker who has beaten Gaethje previously (kicks+ knees+range punches+ elbows) rather than the basic kick+ punch rudimentary kickboxers you tend to see in MMA.

I could see Ferguson punshing Gaethje and being punished in return and locking up a Darce late in the fight.

Cejudo vs Cruz: wow. Cruz really comes out of the woodwork to jump back into 5 round fights. If he dethrones Cejudo, Cruz goes down at the best bantamweight of all time (he already is and newer fans forget just for how long he ruled the roost). Cruz's gameplan has changed little in years and that razor thin decision winnning gameplan ultimately got exposed by Garbrandt (I actually thought Cruz won that fight or barely lost depending how you scored one of the rounds). Cruz has one of the most studied games in MMAas evidenced by how Dillashaw and Garbrandt and others have borrowed elements of what he does. I HATE betting on fights on guys coming off of long layoffs, but Cruz has demonstrated previously that he can jump back into top flight competition. Cejudo is not invincible, as evidenced by the fights with Mighty Mouse. A true mixed martial artist can find success against Cejudo in transition and he is not impossible to take down or punish. He is however young in his MMA career and still can weather those scary spots and pour it on shortly thereafter. Cejudo has come a long way from being stopped by a knee to the body by Mighty Mouse to then beat him later but I suspect Mighty Mouse had more to due with title fatigue and feeling unappreciatd by US audiences as much as it did with Cejudo's growth as a fighter. Cejudo has only grown in skill and confidence but his comical coaching staff I suspect will utlimately be his downfall as happened with Rousey who eventually saw that lack of top flight preparation cost her when her natural skills and carryover wrestling attritbutes failed. I do not trust Cejudo's camp and head coach but I implicitly trust Cruz's analysis of fighters and ability to prepare a fight came down to the razor's edge (much like hearing Kavanaugh or McGregor discuss the nuances of fighting and preparation). My pick is Cruz by fairly dominant decision as an increasingly desparate Cejudo chases him around the cage over the course of the last 2 rounds.

Ngannou vs Rozenstruick: Wow. Someone is going to sleep. I don't typically bet on HW fights for just that reason. Ngannou has more mileage but the edge in experience obviously, but we've seen time and time again in HW fights that in the weight class where the first punch landed can lead to the last a few seconds later that matters much less than in other weight classes. I'm gonna give this one to Rozenstruick as he takes the new moniker as the fearsome puncher no one wants to get CTE from.