Smith vs Teixeira - I still can't get over how Lionheart had his shot at the title after so many balls to the wall performances and then opted to basically barely show up against Jon Jones (who basically carried him the last 2 rounds and wasn't even striking him much on the ground after taking him down early in both rounds). Teixeira wants a shot at Jon Jones again more than I think Smith does TBH. I see Teixeira finishing Smith as Teixeira has to know the window is closing on his career due to age.
Rothwell is a huge man. He's been a tough stylistic match-up for other big guys (like Barnett) who looked hestitant on the feet due to Rothwell's reach/range). I dont think OSP has the size or striking acumen to not get finished by Rothwell. Rothwell was on his way to a likely title shot until a steroid test sidelined him. OSP isn't a HW and Rothwell will show that pretty quickly in this fight. Rothwell is like a more grappling savvy Tim Sylvia and no matter how awkward his style, it is one that many guys don't have the skillset to thwart. Rothwell by front choke like he did to Barnett.
Ray Borg will probably miss weight and act like he's confused as to why. I see him being a guy who even when he moves up in weight still manages to miss weight yet again (like Hendricks et cetera). Fight wise though I think he wins a decision over Simon who's faced less top flight competition.
Vettori vs Roberson will be a barnburner with someone winning a close decision.
Johnson vs Moises - Johnson has faced most of the guys worth facing in two weight classes. He tends to fate later in fights due to his high output (like the Diaz fight) but is dangerous with notable wins over title contenders previously. Moises record as far as wins goes is evenly a third submissions, stoppages, and decisions but the stoppages and decisions have become few and far between since graduating to the UFC. I don't see enough danger in his game to best Johnson who will either stop him with punches or decision him due to far better resume experience.
Arlovski continues gatekeeper status against another dangerous HW (they're all dangerous bc any one guy can hit you and stop you in that division. Lins has 3 TKO's and a submission in his last 4 fights. Arlovski is 1-4-1 in his last 6. Arlovski's skillset and age mean he can potentially beat anyone on any given night or get wobbled and stopped. More telling is Travis Browne was the last fighter he finished (2015). Arlovski either wins 2/3 rounds for a decision or loses. Mathematically, not a great spot to be in. The obvious pick is Lins via stoppage.
May 16th:
Overeem vs Harris - Harris is 3-1-1 with a NC due to an illegal kick. Overeem is 2-3 in his last 5 with stoppages due to strikes/takedowns and while standing. Harris has the skills but has not faced the competition level of Overeem (few men have). It's hard to think Harris will overwhelm the ring acumen of Overeem who can pick him apart over the course of the fight nor get blitzed by Harris and put away. Overeem by decision.
Barboza vs Ige: Barboza by TKO or submission. Ige has decisioned far lesser fighters than Barboza and this will not be a fight he can win by decisions. Barboza has way too many tools standing, clinch, and on the ground to hope to win a decision.
Jotko vs Anders: Anders has taken too many fights too quickly without polishing his tools that he came with into the uFC. Jotko has the likely savvy to survive early round surges, get him to the ground and/or win a decision as he has 14 previous wins.
Darren Elkins is later on this card and regardless of how the fight goes, always excited to see him.
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