Who I'm Studying/Feed Your JiuJitsu Mind

I train a lot more NoGi these days, in fact I train NoGi roughly 7-9 sessions per week now and roll in the Gi probably 2-3 or 4 times per week. I've definitely seen my Gi grip-based open guard game suffer as a result but my back control and attacking to finish from the back has increased, c'est la vie, right? There's only so many hours to train and as you have better clarity and precision in your game, you also notice when areas of your game slack off a bit or suffer due diligence and time spent elsewhere. The rabbit hole runs so very, very deep, right?

That being said, with the Worlds having just occurred, I've been watching Musumeci to catch up on the development of his Gi game as he's the most back taking-est competitor in the game today.  Also, myself being/as a practitioner who's spent a lot of time working on making my guard as impassable as possible, I still find myself waging the war of sweeping and submitting off my back but not threatening enough back takes to round out my bottom game. A guy like him who used his impassable guard to get to the back is of particular interest rather than the more traditionally structured game of sweep, pass, improve position.

I'm also studying (as posted before) Gabriel Arges and his bottom game entries to the kneebar for the Gi specifically. I like inverting to attack the kneebar, and it's a current part of my repertoire I'm taking aim at in competition class with the upper belts. 

UFC Fight Night 110: Lewis vs Hunt - This is Where We Are

These are the fights which I care enough about to discuss and predict:

So, Hunt returns to action against Lewis (who should've lost to Travis Browne after getting dismantled for 2 rounds. It was a pitiful fight to watch and I actually went to sleep assuming it was over before the 3rd round began). Well, fighting is fighting, and Lewis pulled out the win. Anyhow, unless Hunt has truly faded beyond measure, this will be a walk-off KO win for him. Lewis will backpedal once he tastes the pain and Hunt won't make the mistake Travis Browne did.

Derek Brunson vs Dan Kelly - Dan Kelly is that guy who improbably wins after each increasingly improbable win/pulls the rabbit out of the hat. By a slim margin he beat a very poor looking Rashad Evans and has amassed himself a little win streak. Derek Brunson has seen better days and is coming off a loss to Robert Whitaker (now a title shot contender - haha, I laughed once I typed that as I have literally lost count of all the guys promised a title shot by the UFC over the years), and Anderson Silva. I honestly can't pick this one. Daniel Kelly hasn't faced the resume that Derek Brunson has but Brunson's camp in North Carolina doesn't seem to be a hotbed of training partners to compete at the highest levels of the MMA world in its premier organization. 

I'm gonna go with Dan Kelly in this one as he somehow pulled it out against Rashad Evans and has the momentum. 

Ross Pearson vs Dan Hooker - Pearson is on the chopping block. The dude is coming off of 3 straight losses to Will Brooks (who ragdolled him for the most part), Jorge Masvidal (who just had a number one contender fight - is it ever really known to be one though?) and Stevie Ray. Granted, they're not slouches but 3 losses are 3 losses unless you're along the likes of Vitor Belfort or Dan Henderson or Anderson Silva et cetera. I've never seen Dan Hooker fight so I'll go with Ross Pearson as Dan Hooker has alternated wins and losses for his past 6 UFC fights.

Tim Elliott vs Ben Nguyen - Tim made it a fun, spastic affair against Demetrious Johnson. He also made it a great scrap with his fight against Louis Smolka which he won with his grappling and transitions and scrambles. He does enough standing up and swinging and kicking to get fights go the ground and it feels like I'm actually watching mixed martial arts rather than a lot of recent UFC bouts with sloppy kickboxing and a the occasional takedown in the 3rd round in an affair that looks like glorified sparring.
Against Mighty Mouse he kept squirming and transitioning against the champion and made him work the whole time. Ben is 3-1 in his last 4 UFC fights as a whole and this is a tough one for me to call. I'm gonna go with Tim Elliott as what he showed me against Demetrious Johnson counts for more than Nguyen's lengthier UFC resume.

UFC 212 Hangover/Commentary

Holloway said in the Countdown special that a king goes to another King's village and takes him out. Holloway lived up to his words. He went to the notoriously hostile Brazil/crowd/UFC event, and stopped Aldo convincingly in 3 rounds. I saw Aldo's mouth open toward the end of the 2nd round and I started to get worried. Holloway clipped him with a back to back 1-2, 1-2 and once Aldo was hurt/wobbled, Holloway kept the top pressure on. It was actually flawless to watch Holloway give Aldo enough room to move, yet Holloway stayed in position to continue peppering shots, rather than say set the hooks, take the back and potentially give Aldo time to recover/get his wind back. It looked like pure fatigue on top of getting wobbled that did him in. Toward the end I was yelling at the screen for Aldo to turn and give up mount to just not have the ref step in and I honestly think Aldo chose to get finished there rather than have the stoppage come with him mounted. I'm not a mind reader, but that's what I saw and interpreted.

Borrachinha faced a woefully understkilled opponent and walked him down and chopped him down.
Belfort showed a few brief flashes of what makes him Belfort, but he is done against anything other than mid-level guys on their way downhill.
He's not the same without TRT, let's just call it what it is, ala Dan Henderson.
Claudia exposed the lack of grappling prowess of Karolina who looked like she literally grapples with low level white belts in preparation for a #1 Contender bout. THIS was a co-main event. No one get butthurt that I'm taking her to task because she's a woman, but it was embarrassing to see the holes in the game of someone being billed ahead of Vitor Belfort, a *(&^ing legend in the sport. Belfort was winning the UFC HW tournament at UFC 12 when Karolina was 12 years old. I get it, the UFC is doing blah blah blah for women's MMA but it's also silly and it looks it when you have that fight as a co-main when the ending is just a honest assessment of the lack of depth in some of the women's divisions and even at the "top tier" of such divisions.

Medeiros pulled out a win via early stoppage, but the way Silva's head hit the canvas, is always gonna be tempting for a ref to stop it, that being said, argh, it was a competitive fight up until that point and Silva continues his hot and cold ways of winning and losing in sequence.

Antonio Carlos Junior picked up a stoppage in front of the home crowd to continue his semi-quiet ascent up the rankings of his weight class and Marlon Moraes went the way of Branch and underwhelmed in his WSOF departure to UFC debut. Moraes and Assuncao both were content to spend two rounds having not much more than glorified sparring and I don't feel sorrow for an MMA fighter with a solid grappling pedigree who shoots 1-2 times in a 3 round fight and loses a narrow decision. You want to bounce around and throw a kick or a punch at a time and pivot and circle and move? The decision may not go your way, bro. So many ways to win in MMA and you elect to waste solid minutes of time on the clock inside the cage circling and moving and feinting and blah blah.

At any rate, it was a decent card and I enjoyed the fight if nothing else than moderately. Part of me wanted Marquardt to win just so Belfort will maybe hang it up, but despite some recent violent stoppage losses, Belfort seems content to continue plugging along. And, to be honest, he's a grown man who's been fighting for decades so he can do as he pleases. He's paid for the right to decide when he's done on his damn terms. 

IBJJF Worlds 2017 Aftermath & Reflections

This is by no means exhaustive, but it covers most of that which I'm aware and the names which I follow with some or considerable consistency throughout the year.

Odds and Ends: tossing a belt onto the competition mat felt tacky and honestly, if some school from the middle of nowhere did this, it would be getting more than just a side eye. The favortism and nepotism and conflict of interest that plagues the sport will have to be addressed eventually. Social media is an open forum and with video now from various angles and access to footage, it's no longer a matter of he said/he said, but rather, examples of behavior tolerated by some and punished by others.

Steroids. I feel like when I was a kid watching baseball and the homerun derby and records being obliterated. We have whole divisions competing which are not tested at all (brown and purple belts I'm looking at you) and the adult divisions, are only tested (well, have the possibility of being tested) on a date known to them nearly a year-ish in advance. As a still largely unpaid sport, it is what it is, but the kinds of feats being seen with guys fighting 11 times in 1-2 days against world class competition and looking literally like cartoon characters when their Gi tops come off......it just leaves a bad taste in my mouth. As athletes want to be paid like professionals, and if Jiu-Jitsu with its origins of a weaker man blah blah and technique conquers all blah blah, they'll have to accept out of competition testing.
I'd be curious if you showed up to random high level schools throughout the year and offered out of competition testing to prove they were clean how few well known names would sign up. 

On to the results!

Buchecha beat Erberth by 2 pts and Erberth continues to drive the margin narrower and narrower between him and the the guy who is undeniably the greatest of all time/currently competing that is Buchecha. It remains to be seen if Buchecha moves to MMA sooner rather than later and when Erberth fills the void or if he gets another crack at Buchecha next year. This coming year if Erberth keeps up his competition pace, it will be something as he's beaten or finished a ton of guys within Brazil and abroad having competed in almost everything worth doing this past year. 

Middle: Arges had his day which I had a feeling was coming after the steam he'd been picking up all year. His game is different and he feels comfortable in places other guys don't seem to have as many answers for. Tinoco was the real moral victor in this bracket as he advanced all the way to the final  and took out very game competition along the way. Magid Hage and Oliver Geddes both went out first round, 

Light: Lepri repeated and defended his world tittle. Satoshi got past Langhi which in and of itself is an accomplishment (Lepri didn't have his guard passed in 3 years at one point at black belt). Lepri had some close calls in the earlier rounds but added another tittle to his resume. Brunovskis lost first round and Vinicius moved past Sinistro to then lose to Jhonny Souza of Alliance. It was definitely a day of some interesting upsets and surprises. Mackenzie is another guy who acquitted himself quite well and will definitely be one to watch in the coming year. 

Light Feather: Musumeci beat Joao for the 5th time, becoming only the third (or is it 4th? Are we counting Drysdale?) American to win black belt worlds, and the bracket played out about how I expected. Joao beat Moraes, but Doederline lost to Musumeci, who then beat Ary (technically now reigning world champion due to the PED test for Paulo) and against Joao, Musumeci had the momentum on his side from having beaten Joao several times before. 

Feather: I didn't forsee Saggioro beating Marcio Andre, which blew my bracket. I also expected Moizinho to beat Gianni but that didn't happen and Cobrinha added another title to his resume. The bracket promises a lot of high level showdowns over the next few years. Hard to believe Cobrinha is 37 and still able to hang with the young guys. 

Rooster: Malfacine beat Caio again and the bracket played out about how I expected. 

Demetrious Johnson Counters UFC Claims

I'd previously posted about the DJ not wanting to fight TJ Dillashaw, and Mighty Mouse has lifted the curtain to expose a lot more context of the whole affair. DJ raises some legitimate points and counter arguments to the UFC's rather blanket assessment that he's afraid of Dillashaw. As always, it's a lot more complex than just taking what on the surface seems like a bigger name than Ray Borg in TJ Dillashaw. 

2017 Worlds Brackets Analysis and Picks

Ultra Heavy - Semis will be Cavaca vs Trans and Trans wins on youthful exhuberance, and Buchecha beats Joao Rocha and Buchecha beats Trans again for another world title.

Super Heavy - I don't know if Bernardo Faria or Rodolfo Vieira will take their match....I think Rodolfo's focus on MMA will hurt him against Bernardo who will pull it out finally. After that Bernardo will face Erberth Santos in the final and wins another world title.

Heavy - Semis will be Meregali vs Wardzinski & Jackson Sousa vs Leandro Lo. Leandro takes it because he's Leandro Lo.

Medium Heavy - Semis will be Tarsis Humphreys vs Romulo Barral & Galvao vs Gregor Gracie (one of my coaches who I think will upset some folks along the way. I'm not gonna call the final because my coach is in the bracket and I'm biased.

Middle - Semis will be Gabriel Arges vs Josh Hinger & Otavio Sousa vs Tinoco. Much like the stranglehold on Lightweight that Lucas Lepri has, this is Otavio's division unless your name is Leandro Lo. I think Hinger will get after it against Gabriel Arges who plays fairly relaxed with his kneebar 50/50 game, but Josh will lost in a transition and not continue due to points, and Otavio will make his way to the final. Interestingly enough, Arges kneebarred Otavio at the ACB Challenge Grand Prix and it will be a very tight, slow paced match in my opinion as Otavio will use his world champion experience to avoid the kneebar and game of Arges (who also is a guy who as really turned it on in the past year or two).

Light - Semis will be Sinistro vs Langhi & Edwin Najmi vs Lucas Lepri. Unfortunately for these guys, this is Lepri's division unless your name is Leandro Lo. Seeing Lepri dismantle Lieira's game was unbelievable and though Najmi I think has more versatile and dynamic weapons in his arsenal, Lepri takes this one by a not small margin in the semi, then moves on to face Langhi and I think becomes the second guy to pass Langhi's guard other than Leandro Lo.

Feather - Semis will be Marcio Andre vs Moizinho & Samuel Braga vs Cobrinha. I think Marcio Andre faces Cobrinha in the finals and takes it. Marcio has looked incredible and I think he becomes the second guy other than Rafa to beat Cobrinha.

Light Feather - Key Players: Joao Miyao, Gabriel Moraes, Musumeci, Doederlein, Ary Farias, and Samir Chantre

- Ary is now the reigning world champ due to the PED test that withdrew Paulo's title from last year. That being said, Gabriel Moraes is a former world champ (was promoted from blue belt after winning Worlds to black belt and won Worlds the next year - WTF? True Story). I haven't seen a lot of Ary this year but I've seen a good bit of Musumeci, Joao, and Doederlein. Doederlein has in the past gone neck and neck with Rafa Mendes...so to not have him among the favorites to win this division isn't possible. This bracket is incredible.

My guess Joao Miyao vs Gabriel Moraes & Doederlein vs Ary Farias, and the final will be Joao vs Doederline, with Joao taking the final by the slimmest of slim margins.

Rooster - Hard to think that we won't see anything other than a Malfacine vs Caio final again. Hard also to think that Malfacine won't pull out an incredible additional world title. I wish he competed more. Seeing him once per year do a handful of matches means I don't particularly care for this division because there's just not a ton to follow throughout the year other than Pans and Worlds. 

Picks and Predictions: UFC 212 Aldo vs Holloway

I've had a rough run over the past two UFC's for which I've done picks.
Things like the derailment of the Cirkunov and Al Hassan respective hype trains, Marcin Held's ill-fated Imanari roll into a knee, Gustaffson looking as on point as ever rather than the one who showed up to be KO'd by Anthony Johnson....but here we go again, because why not?

I think Aldo does his best when prodded by opponents (other than McGregor who wore him out with 2 fight build-ups on media tours) and Holloway I think will face the kind of Aldo we saw against Frankie Edgar. Aldo looked beyond sharp in that fight showcasing some amazing boxing slipping and pivoting and the 3-4 punch-kick combos for which he is best known, rather than the pot shotting he had done in fights previous.

That being said, Holloway dispatched Pettis, strangled Swanson, and has a ton of wins in a row against all comers and styles. This really is a *(&^ing awesome main event for a title unification bout. Other than McGregor returning to featherweight, this is TRULY the fight to make at FW.

I think Holloway will last the distance as Aldo seems content even when punishing to take it 5 full rounds and I think the Aldo we saw in his last fight shows up and I just don't think Holloway beats that version of Aldo 9 times out of 10.

Gadelha vs Kowalkiewicz - I think the loss on Gadelha record to Joanna is the blueprint for how she loses this fight. I actually prefer Kowalkiewicz to Joanna as Joanna is a bet more stick and move and pepper and avoid and Kowalkiewicz is a bit more stick it to them and move forward. Gadelha's move to a new camp is interesting and her bulldog build with slams is enough to give me concern about her putting Kowalkiewicz on her back and keeping her there 2 out of 3 rounds.
Is Karolina enough of a 2nd rate Joanna to do the same here? I think so, but I wouldn't bet cash $ on this fight as the threat of 2 takedowns across 3 rounds and a decision is exceedingly high.

Borrachinha vs Bamgbose: Bamgbose gets the KO here by his resume of stiffer UFC competition leading up to this bout.

Belfort vs Marquardt - Marquardt is well past his prime and is 2-3 in his past 5 fights with stoppage losses to Gastelum, and Thiago Santos, as well as a Unan. Dec. loss to Sam Alvey. He stopped Tamdan McCrory and CB Dolloway in that stretch as well. Belfort.....well, he's Belfort. If he lands a punch it's curtains, especially at this stage in Marquardt's career. That being said, Marquardt is cagey enough to avoid much of Belfort's tricks. Belfort has struggled against guys with the wrestling acumen to keep him on the backfoot and/or put him on his butt. I don't think Marquardt does that here. I think Belfort gets a KO win to go on his veritable who's who list of unconscious opponents.

Medeiros vs Erick Silva - Silva. I hate betting on fights this guy is in. He is always willing to somehow lose a fight he's winning or pull a rabbit out the hat and get a KO in a firefight. Silva lost a close fight to Neil Magny (he got outwrestled.....?) and KO'd by Nordine Taleb then most recently won by RNC. I can't bet on a guy with that kind of fluctuation in wins and losses. I love watching him fight as frustrating as it it as times. Dude likes to find a way to go out on his shield. Medeiros. In his last far he's alternated wins and losses (see a theme here? He's lost a decision to the hulking Francisco Trinaldo, been KO'd by Dustin Poirier, submitted Sean Spencer and won a decision of John Makdessi. I think he can win this fight but not doing anything overly ridiculous and fighting smart most of the 3 rounds. I think Silva's power is a legitimate concern as the dude swings for the fences, but I don't think Medeiros has the chops to tap Silva or KO him, and so my pick is Silva buy TKO in the 2nd round after backing Medeiros up in the first round coming out the gate like a madman.

Assuncao vs Moraes - truly a fight to determine how much Assuncao has faded in his recent inactivity since losing to Dillashaw and barely edging out Sterling and how much or not at all Moraes was benefitting from being a big fish in a small pond over in the WSOF. We saw Brance who was a 2 division WSOF champion struggle to win against a guy who was top 10 in his UFC return/debut. Will that happen to Moraes? I think in no way have Moraes past several fights compared to Assuncao but the inactivity of Assuncao is a major concern. I think Moraes hand speed and youth pull him out the win here by Unanimous Decision.

Carlos Junior vs Eric Spicely - I think Carlos has the size and pressure forward striking to put Spicely against the cage, drag him down and get the finish inside of 3 rounds as carrying Junior's world class black belt frame and top pressure will fatigue any mortal man.

Iuri Alcantara vs some guy - Alcantara despite his foibles is also a blast to watch fight. I see him getting the win by headkick KO/punch/knee combination straight outta street fighter 2 turbo.