The only guy to be stripped of a belt 3 times versus a dangerous striker with questionable takedown defense and Usman vs more dynamic and less volume verison of Usman with dynamite punching.
Overall, it's been awhile since I was interesting in the stylistic match-ups of the 2 title fights. Woodley is no fan favorite of mine after atrocious performances 2x against Thompson and Maia, but I don't think Usman will allow Woodley to fight those type of fights so I'm hopeful. We also get the UFC debut of Askren, talk about the "sands of time" changing the landscape of MMA. Askren was unofficially swapped for Mighty Mouse who was recently dethroned and here's the card we have.
Jones vs Smith: it's hard to pick Smith here because he's facing the most dominant champ in LHW history, and also a more frustrating style of striker than himself. Smith wades in with volume and Jones has shown if nothing else a willingness to thwart that style by punshing with lead knee/quadricep kicks, slashing elbows against the cage, and the like. I think we'll be in for either a masterful Jones performance or a 2 round barn burner with Smith hoping to throw the onslaught at Jones and clip him early and put him on the backfoot.
Jones by 2nd round KO from spinning back elbow against he cage
Woodley vs Usman: It was refreshing to not hate Woodley after his last fight. He put together a mixed martial arts displace culminating in a strangle and for once I didn't have to berate him afterward. I think Usman will also be coming forward, throwing in volume, and will therefore make this an entertaining affair. The only way Usman makes this winnable is by walking down Usman, staying busier and avoiding that soul crushing right hand of Woodley. I don't think he does. I think he gets blasted by a straight right in the 2nd or 3rd round and gets RNC'd after taking ground and pound very reminiscent to the way Woodley pounced on Till once he had him hurt.
Woodley by 2nd round RNC
Askren vs Lawler: There's 2 things I hate figuring into my gambling - a long layoff and a fighter unproven on the UFC stage. So many great fighters looked good in Japan and abroad but absolutely struggled in the cage against solid UFC level opposition. Askren as his best beat guys who were Bellator level fighters. It's hard to gauge his grappling acumen against guys who I have to believe were barely blue belt level grapplers at best. That being said, Lawler hasn't fought in quite awhile.
I'm going to side with conventional wisdom of strength of experience and resume and pick Lawler in this one. That being said, in no way shape or form would I actually bet money on this fight.
Lawler by 3rd round TKO.
Garbrandt vs Munhoz: I never get tired of watching Garbrandt get knocked out. The question remains, is he someone who only loses to the very best (Dillashaw) or has he been exposed in some capacity. It's concerning to see that Decision or Submission is Munhoz' statistical likelihood of winning, versus Garbrandt who's punch centric style makes him hard to take down. He's always been fleet of foot, and Munhoz' best shot at winning is to fake enough takedowns to tag Garbrandt with his hands at shoulder height, put him down and finish him on the mat. Do I think Munhoz can do that? I'm doubtful. But, I can't stand Garbrandt so I'll pick Munhoz to move quite a bit up the ladder with a submission victory here.
Zabit vs Stephens: Talk about a treat on the undercard. Buddy. Anyone not excited to see Zabit's wild stylings of unpredictability on the feet is a hater. He's inventive, mixes in trips from standing, chain wrestles, submits....truly the real MIXED in mixed martial arts. That being said, he's not made of steel, and Stephens does what Stephens does well. Looks to land what he knows he's good at and is durable in most positions. This is a real step up that Zabit thinks he deserves and his cool, calm, and collected composure in the cage versus Stephens at times all out aggression.
The pick is Zabit by RNC in round 3.
Cirkunov vs Walker: Walker's hype train is accelerating. Cirkunov is the party crasher. Cirkunov has two stoppage losses to two deadly strikers: Oezdemir and Teixieira. Walker certainly possibly fits that bill. That being said, Cirkunov also has submission wins against Cummins, Krylov, and Cutelaba, no slouches or bums in terms of experiences and resume.
I think Cirkunov gets hurt but drags the younger fighter to the mat and arm-triangles him as he wilts under a sustained ground and pound assault.
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