Thursday, July 25, 2013

UFC on FOX 8: Johnson vs Moraga - Predictions, Picks, Gambling Enabler

Like I mentioned before, I'll be out of town for much of July taking care of some personal matters, so assuming (lolz) there are no injury replacements, here are my picks for UFC on FOX 8, coming right at the end of July.

Demetrious Johnson showed me something more important than anything else he could have in his fight with John Dodson which was how he responded to adversity. He got dropped, Dodson caught him off guard, sleeping, whatever, but Johnson persevered over the remaining distance of the fight winning in my opinion a pretty clear decision minus a 10-8 round in scoring. I don't see Moraga doing things any differently. Johnson moves well, scrambles even better, and much like the Dominic Cruz strategy of stick and move and win the rounds at opportune moments, I see this going nearly exactly the same. I would, as with GSP like to see the champ's look more to finish than simply win the majority of 5 rounds, but hey, I'm also not the one fighting to retain my belt over hungry challenger after hungry challenger.

D. Johnson will win a wide decision in not close fight.

I'm taking Rory McDonald to pick apart Ellenberger and finish him in the 3rd round. In a 5 round fight I would have Rory stopping Ellenberger in the 4th round. But I think Ellenberger may just get finished late in the 3rd here.

Lawler will stop the hype train of Siyar (who I think is still definitely a dark horse title contender in this division). But I think he will overlook Lawler's resume of impressive KO's and get caught in perhaps the 2nd round if not the first.

I don't watch women fight, so I'll go with Liz Carmouche b/c I think her name is more familiar-sounding.
Chiesa can definitely sub Masvidal who is a favorite of mine from the Miami Hustle online/youtube series, but I think Masvidal if he fights a smart fight can keep it standing and batter Chiesa on the feet. This is probably the hardest fight for me to pick on this card.

Danny Castillo b/c I liked watching him fight in the WEC.
Mac Danzig will sub Guillard who I enjoy watching get subbed whenever he doesn't get an early KO.
Mitrione will catch and TKO Schaub.
Yves Edwards who has been fighting forever will have an entertaining scrap with Spencer Fisher and pull out the win.
Julie Kedzie via the same rationale I provided earlier for the other female fight on the card.

MAIN CARD (FOX, 8 p.m. ET)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 3:30 p.m. ET)

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