Friday, March 4, 2016

McGregor VS Diaz Fight Card Gambling Picks

Tonight: Bellator features Darrion Caldwell vs Joe warren in what Joe Warren basically did which was jump quickly into the deeper end of the MMA pool after a stellar wrestling career. Interesting to see if Old Man Warren can do what he's done to others.

The real show topic of importance: 
Nate Diaz is 3-3, in his last 6 fights. He has losses to RDA, a stoppage loss to Josh Thompson and Decision loss to Benson Henderson. Those aren't super telling in that Henderson was champion, RDA now has the strap, and the Thompson fight was a firefight.

Diaz has wins over Gray Maynard by Stoppage, Gillotine over Jim Miller,  and a pretty lopsided Decision over Donald Cerrone: both those fights nearly 3 years ago. For me, to handicap this fight, the most telling was his recent Win over Michael Johnson. Johnson had the right gameplan to start the fight in the first round but fatigued inexplicably and Diaz eventually walked him down and edged out the 2nd round and clearly won the 3rd round.

The speed of Johnson gave Diaz problems, Diaz has always had problems with consistent leg kicks, lacks the counter or even offensive wrestling to stymie guys coming forward and wins fights one of two ways: walking the guy down who wilts under his pressure, in a scramble from a clinch/tie-up gets it to the mat where he efficiently does work and can finish guys quickly off his back or otherwise. Against McGregor, none of those gameplans will work. McGregor will go to the body early and often with some push kicks that fast, sneaky spinning back heel kick he lans as guys circle out against him/a southpaw.
I bet and will move in and out and do to Diaz what he likes to do to others which is stalk and control the range.

Holm vs Tate - Holm by patient, dissection of the rushing forward Miesha who lacks the footwork and head movement to not get picked apart. This one by slow death, ends in the 3rd round.

Tom Lawlor - won last two by KO and submission, lost a split Decision to Carmont, beat Jason Macdonald, loss by sub to former champ Weismann on his title run up 
- D win over Maldonado whatver that means, win over some guy who's name I can't pronounce, Los to villante, 
Erick Silva vs some dude - 2-2, loss to Neil magny, submitted Koscheck and mike Rhodes, loss via stoppage to Matt brown - never won more than 2 in a row in the UFC. Dude's best showing was a win on a TUF finale. I'll just leave that there. 
Nunes vs I don't watch women fight so I'll keep this moving right along.

Thatch is back after losing to Bahadurzada. I think Thatch wins this one but wouldn't bet cash on it straight up. 
Jim Miller on FightPass vs Diego Sanchez 
Jim Miller is in the "should have campaigned for a title shot back when he had an obscene amount of wins in a row. Now he's fighting on FightPass on the biggest card of the year thus far.

Now he's coming off a submission loss to Chiesa, and a split Decision win over Castillo, and a loss to Dariush by D and a KO loss to Cerrone: all since middle of 2014.
I think Miller wins this one by decision as Sanchez is notoriously hard to finish despite the mileage on his tires. 
Sanchez - coming off a D loss to Ricardo Lamas,  a split D win over Ross Pearson, loss to Myles Jury, a loss to Melendez, and a split D win over Gomi going back to 2013

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