Thoughts on 3CG, WNO, Sub Only" & Vague scoring criteria

 Watched the most recent WNO, and have watched others, and the inconsistency of the scoring for "sub only" as its termed just means no points are awarded and there is a vague sense of submissions versus positional grappling being awarded. The event with the Atos' Ruotolo brothers and Renzo's Nicky Ryan and Ethan Crelinsten comes to mind. I don't doubt that it went 1-1 across the two matches, but if Nicky lost due to positional dominance by one brother then Ethan should've won his match by asserting that same dominance and passing against the other brother. Watching the Maysa vs Grace match also came to mind. Granted, the match was close in the sense that neither really passed decisively, and the real danger of any foot locks or otherwise is debatable but, the lack of scoring points leads to at best subjective scoring, and at worst, the historically validated preferential treatment by judges/refs that has plagued the sport as a result of the myriad of those involved in scoring/reffing who have some affiliation by degrees of separation to someone's coach or teammate or even the competitor. 

Bias against leg locks and attacks or lack of information is apparent in the valuation of fake foot lock attacks to accrue attacks in F2W. Guys will spend 8 minutes (in the Gi in particular) cranking on a foot lock from 50/50 when there's minimal risk in said position. The IBJJF and the Oscar worthy toe hold in the waning seconds as the guy looks like he's in a bathhouse orgy scene springs to mind. I saw this not as an indictment against "sub only" but rather that longer match duration and not scoring points leaves an even more prone to interpretation decision-making criteria that is likely not consistent across 3 judges. I thought Thor won the match against Rocha. Rocha passed one time, briefly, and otherwise was largely stymied in passing due to various leg lock attempts and entries. If a top player finds himself withdrawing from contact, butt to mat, and fleeing away from his opponent, the attempt to disengage should function at least comparable to an opponent turtling to avoid a guard pass. I appreciate the removal of points to encourage more submission attempts, but much like wrestling and Judo have implemented, actually using stalling calls creates urgency on the part of competitors, or forces a decision to play it safe at the risk of losing or being DQ'd. 

I appreciate the value to having different rule sets across grappling styles, and even within the same sport. ADCC forces most serious entrants to work on their wrestling and backtakes. Sub only forces more diligence with leg entanglements and overtime positions. Points awarding formats force positional awareness and the importance of scoring first. 

No time limit sub only feels the least compelling. Sure, competitors can take more chances, but by the 20-30 min mark, it is often a war of attrition with less and less action occurring. BJJ Bishop did a great breakdown of the finish rate and win rate relative to scoring and match length (back when the Abu Dhabi Pro instituted short match lengths in an effort to encourage more action and less stalling). What it showed was that changing the match length from 10 minutes (IBJJF) to 6 minutes (Abu Dhabi Pro) even at the black belt level had little effect on the % of matches that ended in submission. What did change was that the percentage of impact the first score had on predicting the winner of the match rose. IE: first score in a shorter match is a much likelier indicator of winning than in a longer match. 

Submission Underground has a truly short 5 minute regulation with no points, then overtime. From a spectator standpoint, it keeps matches visually more attune to a casual fan base (ala why he uses more MMA fighters with name recognition et cetera), but add to that the cage and you end up with some matches where guys cage wrestle and stand on the feet for 5 minutes, then it's Overtime. If a competitor chooses to disengage, they can easily run down the better part of 5 minutes, even in a cage, particular when you add in clinch/wrestling, and/or against a seated opponent. 

I've competed in a lot of 5 minute points matches at Grappling Industries in the past 3 years. I've also done a lot of EBI format events. I also did an EBI Overtime only format event this past year. Overall, the more I do sub only events, the less engaging I find them. If at it's core, JiuJitsu is a combat sport, the idea that an opponent can be mounted for 7 minutes, have their back taken, escape bunch of leg entanglements seems self-defeating. Given that few submissions statistically come in the 8-10 minute mark, if you're doing a 16 man bracket, the draw/pools determining who faces who and in what order has a more signifcant impact on the event as it wears on. 

I did the SoGI -155 Pro bracket this Fall, and by the finals, I had something like 34 minutes of mat time, with two matches going to OT. My first match went 10 minutes regulation, then 6 OT rounds, and I won on ride time. My 2nd match I finished via heel hook in -1 min. My third match went 10 minutes regulation then I won by RNC in the 4th OT round. The finals I lost in regulation roughly 4-5 mins in. I say this not to place blame, but rather as examining the format and looking for meaning in determining regulation duration versus OT rounds et cetera. 

I'm all for the purist part of JiuJitsu which at its core is a blend of positional dominance and/or resultant submission. I (probably because I fought MMA and played Judo for 10 years) appreciate the utilization of stalling calls to force engagement. A lot of what is passed off as being technical and other silly terms commentators use (because of the hero worship in JiuJitsu) is actually just guys doing as little as possible or avoiding danger. 

There's a fine line between using position to score points and ride out the remainder of time or relentlessly spamming leg attacks with no potential of finishing, in the sense that they are both artificial and disingenuous. As events compete for viewership or simply offer content for fans, it's interesting to see the resulting skills and game plans change. 

Thompson vs Neal Fight Night Aftermath: Thompson stifles, Aldo Sustains, Pettis Absconds

The card was better than a fair share of PPV's I've seen with Thompson doing much less fleet of foot retreating, and punching some stamp on his punches before circling off and backing out. I expected some more high kicks over the course of 5 rounds, but forgoing them prob kept Neal from having any opportunity to put Thompson on his back and wear on him with ground and pound. Neal blamed a clash of heads for obscuring his vision but nothing I saw in the first 2 rounds suggested that he was going to land many if any clean power shots to hit the always mobile trap-setting Thompson. I've been exceedingly critical of Thompson in the past after fights like Woodley 1 & 2 and Masvidal, but he fought his kind of fight without being boring or gun shy this time around. I think he's aware those kinds of performances will get you persona non grata and certainly KO any shot of another title shot. Thompson will always be superbly hard to beat as he retreats behind his ability to throw danger and goad you into trying to bull him. He can beat the Geoff Neal's and Vicente Luque's of the welterweight division. 

The only guys above him in the rankings now are Masvidal (NO ONE WANTS TO SEE A REMATCH), Covington, Burns, and Usman. Usman is slated to face Burns but it's been cancelled twice, and I expect Usman to milk more time out of delaying if I'm being completely honest. He did the same thing with Covington belaboring negotiations, saying he needed surgery, then not, then needing it et cetera. I'd honestly like to see Thompson fight Edwards as that makes the most linear sense, but Edwards is slated to face surging number 15 stay busy and crush cans Khamzat. That leaves Thompson the ignoble choices beneath him such as Chiesa or Magny if he wishes to stay busy and relevant. His previous abysmal title fights may continue to haunt him in terms of booking, unless he takes on whoever loses the Burns/Usman fight. Burns really does strike me as someone who will fight anyone, Usman, does not. 

Pettis is now gone from the UFC. Wild, as I guess he's fought basically everyone there is to fight, and to continue fighting between 145, 155, and 170 against the lesser known, lower tier guys doesn't seem to interest him in the long term. The depth of his resume is so comically and absurdly deep that it is frankly mind blowing. Everyone from Nate Diaz to Cerrone to Jim Miller, to Benson Henderson to Poirier, Holloway, Oliveira, Alvarez, Chiesa, and Ferguson....He will be missed, but I guess he likes the idea of the PFL tournament, and after hopping through 3 different weight classes and catchweight bouts in his career, why not try to win a cool million for his efforts. 

Aldo showed why he still has the tools to punish most guys not named Holloway or Volkanovski or Petr Yan. He's another Pettis scenario where you can give him mid or lower level guys simply because he's fought basically everyone else. The gameplan to beat Aldo is seemingly known as guys like Holloway, Petr Yan, and Volkanovski have shown, but other than a handful of elite fighters, most guys will simply not be able to corner him, back him up, or force him to make many mistakes without getting battered across 3 rounds. I'd love to see him fight Rob Font (though I think this is a 50/50 for him) or Cody Garbrandt, but Garbrandt seems intent on still fighting for the 135 belt, so hopefully we see Aldo face Sandhagen or Font. I think Sandhagen has the type of pressure forward style that will not be good for Aldo, particularly across 5 rounds, but Sandhagen coming off of his 1st round submission by Aljamain may take a fight with Aldo to stay near the top ranking and show he deserves a title shot should Aljamain beat Yan. If Aljamain loses to Yan, it's actually better for Aldo as them fighting makes more sense than Aldo fighting Petr Yan so soon after losing to him. 

UFC 256: Stoppages Galore - Figueiredo vs Moreno & et all Fallout

 

Jacare vs Holland - akin to that Niko Price KO of Randy Brown from off of his back, Holland wobbled Jacare off his back then popped up and put him away. Folks are saying Jacare should retire, and yes he's 0-3 in his last 3 fights, but it was a spit decision loss to a guy who now has the belt at LHW, a decision loss to Hermannson other than this stoppage loss to Holland. Prior to that he put away Gastelum, dropped a decision to Gastelum and put away Derek Brunson et cetera. A tough patch having fought most of his UFC career against the upper echelon of the division is hardly cause for retirement. What's always worried me about his last few years has been the lack of notable training partners/camps I've seen him working with, but alas, you can't make anyone do anything. 

Oliveira vs Ferguson - it's also easy to write of Ferguson after the beating he took at the hands of Gaethje and being largely controlled by Oliveira (a guy with plenty of submission wins to his credit). Oliveira with his polished striking, deep resume of tough opposition and veterans, was going to be a stern test for anyone. I don't see this as much that Ferguson doesn't have it anymore, just that Oliveira put together the pieces of his game more cogently. 

Gane vs Dos Santos - Gane played his kicking heavy game to harass, touch, and keep Dos Santos at bay, and as the rounds wore on and Dos Santos knew he was under the gun for a decision, Gane waited for Dos Santos to pull away off angle and landed some devastating elbows over the top. A patient, diverse striker, Gane will have the tools (kicking) to give a number of HW's trouble, but I'd be curious to see him fight a Blaydes or another polished HW wrappler. Oleinik would be a stern test for him across 3 rounds. Hilariously enough, he's actually got a heel hook win at HW in the UFC in his 2nd UFC fight, and won his UFC debut via arm triangle. 

Fiziev vs Moicano - Moicano paid the same price Pineda paid: he F'd around on the feet too long with a guy with heavy, accurate hands, and got clipped pulling away from a punch in combination. Moicano has been my dark horse to earn a belated title shot but hopefully he comes away from this fight a bit more dedicated to playing a bit more close to the vest in the striking exchanges. 

Hooper vs Barrett  - it's been said by many other pundits, man needs to polish his striking and wrestling if he intends to do more than win a few lower tier fights via submission and get CTE from striking battles against the toughter guys in the division and better wrestlers. 

Swanson vs Pineda - Pineda believed a bit too much in his own hype or experience, either way he dicked around on the feet too long against a guy with a ton of stoppage wins. Pineda had the winning game plan with the chopping knee and calf kicks, but slowed down a tad, and Swanson seized on the traps he'd been setting from the earlier exchanges. 

Figueiredo vs Moreno - it's a big plus for the division that a FOTY was a flyweight scrap and that the guys came off of making weight 21 days ago to do fisticuffs. Moreno showed that Figueiredo potentially slows across 5 rounds, and gives up body lock takedowns as he comes streaking forward in a linear striking combination. Both guys gave up the first half of the 5th round, and I figured who ever got a big takedown would take the fight, and it was the champ who got a draw from that last hip toss. Moreno should come away knowing that he has the gameplan to potentially beat the champ, and if he cleans up some striking in bunches, and chains together a bit more wrestling and keeping the wily Figueiredo down afterward long enough to land some strikes, he can take 3 of the 5 rounds. 

Inside Heel Hook @ Grappling Industries

From awhile back: 

 

Submission Only Series - Featherweights Pro Bracket (EBI Rules)

UFC 256 Countdown: Figeuiredo vs Moreno, Ferguson vs Oliveira

 

Leglock PSA: overextension & hip exposure

Leg lock PSA: the Darce gets you leglocked

CJJ Worlds 2020: The Lightweights Official Countdown

In the event that you care about slap Jitsu...

-1 min inside heel hook win @ Grappling Industries

UFC 255: Inside the Octagon - Figueiredo vs Perez

UFC 255 Countdown: Full Episode

Inside heel hook -155 SoGi

TBT: Takedown. Pass/backtake. Submit.

Arm drag to inside trip/kouchimakikomi

TBT to comp footage/breakdown I did for the arm drag to inside trip I hit at the Egg Guard invitational this past weekend.

Egg Guard Invitational 2: Takedown. Pass. Mount.

Arm drag to inside trip to body lock + knee thru to full mount.

UFC 254: Inside the Octagon - Khabib vs Gaethje

UFC 254 Countdown: Full Episode - Gaethje vs Khabib, Whitaker vs Cannonier

Inside heel hook from last weekend

Seionage Evolution: Competition footage & variations

 Below is footage of me from white belt in Judo (the first two clips) to the last competition clip is a standing version I hit in the Gi Purple belt BJJ adult division then through to live training as a Judo black belt hitting basically every grip variation I know with 3 different dropping variations: both knees down, one knee down, and standing/upright). The grip variations include a wrestling style arm throw, cross collar, 2 hand on opposite lapel, 2 hands on the near lapel + throwing off of the "wrong" shoulder, and of course the tradition sleeve + lapel grip taught initially to beginners. 

It's a solid 10 years work off study, repetition, uchikomi, watching famous guys compete, and trial and error in live training to utilize the different grips in live training and competition with an understanding of the footwork, timing, entries, and gripfighting required.....for just this one throw. 

UFC 252: Miocic Retains Title, Suga Show Unsweetened

What could turn into a long term problem came up again with a likely previous ankle/foot injury derailing Suga show who had been stumping for top 10 guys and more money.

It remains to be seen what happens. Vera was victim to some heavy leg kicks early on, but didn't bite on the feints as the round wore on. I predicted a competitive fight going the distance, and prior to the ankle buckling on O'Malley, I still think that was in the cards. If it's something serious and he needs surgery, will be interesting if this early in his career he has to work around a change in mobility and no longer rely on the diversity of kicks to ply the rang he prefers to set up the right hand.

Cormier suffered a torn cornea in the fight. I don't think it changed the outcome of a close fight in which he only landed one takedown (albeit briefly). I don't know if it was a fatigue/energy expenditure choice or what, but having brought in his previous wrestling coach, I had hoped it was for more than just hard work in camp, but Miocic smartly and correctly stymied Cormier in the clinch and shut down his dirty boxing while buying control/clinch time in several rounds. Cormier gave up the overhook/collar tie position he does but Miocic didn't take the bait as other guys naively have (and in fact he did in their first fight). Was a bummer to not see Cormier snatch single legs and chain together wrestling the way he does so efficiently and impressively at HW, and he knockdown/stumble that led to him being mounted briefly at the end of one of the rounds led to a 49-46 score from one of the judges which visibly distressed Cormier. He's done far more in the sport than most ever well, and especially at HW with winning the Strikeforce Grand Prix, and 2 weight classes in the UFC. He has the distinction of fighting a number of non-UFC HW's that rounds out an incredibly resume of men he beat in 2 divisions which aside from Stipe and Jon Jones, respectively, have been notoriously hard to defend and retain over the years.

I have no doubt DC still beats the vast majority of HW's out there, but to what end? He has a win over Stipe who is the consensus UFC HW Goat of all time, and bested many of the other notables of this generation.

Rozenstruik did what I expected which was go back to the way he fought against Overeem and ply his time until landing an odd angle shot and ending the fight savagely. He's in a tough position of having been blitzed by Ngannou who now likely faces Stipe (who battered him and dragged him to the mat for 5 rounds). That being said, Stipe looked much more tentative on the feet this time around and I like Ngannou's chances a bit better this time around as he looks only more impressive in his current run and Stipe last night looked tentative against DC, even on the feet and as the takedowns seemed not in play.

I think a fight against Volov makes sense, or Curtis Blaydes as Rozenstruik hasn't faced any UFC level wrestlers in his Octagon run and will likely have to piece together a couple more wins before fighting for the title (regardless of whether Stipe or Ngannou holds it by that time). 

UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier Trilogy & Suga vs Chito Show Picks & Predictions

Miocic vs Cormier - suspect Cormier won't go dropping his hands and showboating on Miocic and look for an early stoppage ala his first win, and not drag out the finish with his hands like he did that gave Miocic time to adjust and put him away late in the fight. Cormier by stoppage in the 3rd round and rides off into the sunset as the best HW of the UFC promotion.

O'Malley vs Vera - it's always hard to say if O'Malley has that kinda style that puts away lesser fighters impressively then falters the further up the food chain he goes (think Houston Alexander or many other fighters who have a crowd pleasing style that picks guys off outside the top 10). Vera is no slouch, he lacks a big notable win, but has also quietly picked up a number of stoppage wins (2 RNCs, 3 TKO's in his last 6 fights). I think the pick here is O'Malley by decision as Vera will be hard to put away, but the reach and movement of O'Malley will keep him out of harm's way for much of the fight. O'Malley but decision over 3 rounds with a variety of strikes, punches, kicks, and spins.

Jairzinho vs Dos Santos - had Jairzinho not come out the gate like a madman, I could see him having stopped Ngannou much akin to how he did Alistair. Jairzinho made it to the 5th round with one of the most accomplished strikers in MMA/Kickboxing of all time. So, he has the acumen and wherewithal to do so, but he blitzed Ngannou and got clipped. I should hope that was a learning moment and he'll adopt a smarter approach against the equally well-schooled veteran Dos Santos who we know can fight 5 rounds. Jairzinho has only gone do a decision 1 time, over in Rizin. Dos Santos is coming off 2 stoppage losses (Ngannou, and Blaydes). It's hard to say that at HW he's in the decline of his career just because he lost twice by stoppage as guys like Arlovski and Overeem can drop a fight or 2 or more and still come back to put together 3 and 4 fight win streaks later in the careers (amazing considering every single human in this weight class can feasibly knock the other out due to their sheer size and power). I think Jairzinho and his punches at odd angles and reach will prove problematic for Dos Santos and Jairzinho puts himself back on the fast track to some big names with a stoppage win here.

Burns vs Pineda - Herbert's sole losses came over in ONE FC. Otherwise has has 11 wins, 9 of which are stoppages. 8 of those are submissions. Pineda is coming in with the odd situation of having his last 2 wins overturned due to a positive steroid test in the PFL tournament. Pineda is being brought in to notch another HL win for Burns. Easy pick here. Burns by RNC.

Dodson vs Dvalishvili - can Dvalishvili put the brakes on Dodson's frenetic in and out and endless foot movement? Dvalishvili put on a masterful striking + takedown clinic in his last fight but Dodson is about as fleet of foot as they come. The gameplan to beating Dodson has been implemented by fighters with wins over him like Moraes, Rivera, Yan, & Lineker. Visually, to offset the movement and in and out style he utilizes, taking the center of the Octagon and not getting baited into running around after him is key. Chopping his legs with kicks or punching as he darts in are ways to not allow the judges to mistake you for being a plodding fighter getting picked off via movement and accuracy. Dodson will be extremely hard to get a hold of and hold down. I suspect Dvalishvili can do that at least one round, and pick up another round with his ever improving striking. If he can make it look like Dodson is fleeing and running away rather than coolly avoiding his forward movement, he can pick up a decision win.

Miller vs Pinchel  - consummate veteran Miller vs Pichel who slowed the hype train of Roosevelt Roberts recently. Gregor Gillespie did was Gillespie does to anyone not named Kevin Lee, which leads me to believe that Miller will get the submission win here. Pichel started his career with an impressive number of stoppage/striking wins but that has since petered out against stiffer competition and unless Miller gets caught with an errant strike I see Miller dragging him to the mat and submitting him.

UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier 3 - Inside the Octagon Breakdown by Hardy/Gooden

UFC 252: Miocic vs Cormier Trilogy Countdown Episode, Suga Sean O'Malley, et al

UFC on ESPN 32+ Lewis vs Oleinik Results & Ramifications

Lewis vs Oleinik - As I was concerned, Lewis came out dangerous off the rip in the second round and the flying knee forced Oleinik to pull away and Lewis landed the right hand (all of his punches are dangerous if we're being honest) and put him away with Donkey Kong style hammer firsts. Oleinik looked good from bottom in the first round, reversing bottom position Demian Maia style not once but twice, and keeping Lewis down, but whereas other HW's look like a fish out of water, Lewis has always seemed to avoid submission threats well. DC had the wrestling chops to wear on him and batter him and force him to work and move, and Volkov pieced him up at range. Those two options are the blue print for beating Lewis. I was hoping we'd see a diaphragm choke win by the man Oleinik, but it was not to be.

Weidman vs Akhmedov - despite the usual concerns about his chin, Weidman pulled out the grappling when necessary and advanced position to threaten submissions until the end of the fight. He threatened single legs, chained passing attempts, and in the final round advanced to mount to stamp the win on the score cards. He's only lost to the very best in the division which is truly a murderer's row of guys like Romero, Rockhold, Souza and others. I'd be concerned to see him fight someone like Till who is light on his feet and sets up feints across the early rounds without staying close in range. We'll see what middleweight wants a crack at the former champ while Adesanya prepares for Costa in a bad blood match.

Dariush vs Holtzman - Despite missing weight, Dariush picked up what would've been another FOTN/stoppage bonus level win with his spinning back elbow walk off at the end of the first round. He really does have the skills to fight for the belt in this division. Great stand-up, range control, grappling, and submission threat. He's ranked 14th which is pretty comical as he's finished his last 4 opponents and has only dropped losses to Edson Barboza (a fight he was winning IMO) and Hernandez, Chiesa, and Nijem over a span of 6 years with 13 wins and a draw other than the 4 losses. He's a dangerous fight to take for a guy outside the top 10 and I doubt any of the guys ranked in the 5-10 spots of his division want the fight seeing his last 4 stoppage wins.

Stewart vs Pitolo - Stewart smartly locked up a guillotine as takedown defense, then switched grip after trapping Pitolo's leg that he was slow to clear and/or head post/hop over the legs to counter the guillotine. Pitolo seemed more hesitant than previous outings after the initial dust up of flurries in the first few seconds. Stewart has always talked a big game stoppage wise during interviews, so a stoppage win here can get him another main card spot on an upcoming event, especially after taking minimal damage in this fight.

Means vs Staropoli - Means weathered the danger and spinning back elbows of Staropoli to use his veteran skills to take the fight. Means has the tools and versatility to beat a lot of guys, even the younger crop of fighters coming into the UFC.

Kunitskaya vs Stoliarenko - when the articles describing the fight all use the word "grinded" you already know, fam. Kunitskaya came forward, locked hands and gave a more knee to the midsection head pressure version of what Usman did to Masvidal. The ref allowed this to go on for basically 10 mins of the the fight, then oddly enough restarted from closed guard after a bit of inaction. If you're going to watch a fighter lock hands and land knees to the midsection for 2 rounds standing up, why the rush to restart where there's actual submission threat from the fighter on the bottom? At any rate, it wasn't much of a win for Kunitskaya either to stump for a more ranked opponent as she anemically battered a who is 9-5-1. Kunitskaya is in a tough position as she's lost to Aspen Ladd, Tonya Evinger, and Cris Cyborg and also put on a dreadfully boring decision clinch fest against a fighter with a .65 ish record that was a UFC debut.

UFC on ESPN 32: Oleinik vs Lewis Picks & Predictions

Lewis vs Oleinik
Much can be said about Derrick Lewis both as per his interview skills, social media savvy and his resume: the guy has wins over Browne, Volkov, Ngannou (worst fight ever, but anyhow), Gonzaga, Nelson, and his losses are Mark Hunt, Cormier, and Dos Santos. He ends fights violently be it in the first round or the very last, and avoids much trouble on the ground despite not having the most vaunted wrestling in this division. Oleinik has faced the likes of Blaydes, Browne, Werdum, Overeem, Hunt, CroCop, and Jeff Monson.

As much as I want to see Oleinik get a title shot, historically, Derrick Lewis is the kind of guy to tag him and put him away. Lewis much like Walt Harris or Overeem could catch him early and put him away. The pick, despite my desire for another grappling-centric HW champ is the pick by first round stoppage.

Weidman vs Akhmedov
Akhmedov hasn't stopped anyone in the UFC since 2015. He's dropped some stoppage losses in that time and picked up a number of decision wins. Weidman (other than that foray into the LHW division) has still only lost to the very best the MW division has to offer: Mousasi, Romero, & Rockhold. He has wins over Gastelum, Belfort, Machida, Anderson Silva (2x), Munoz, and Demian Maia.
Weidman via submission

Dariush vs Holtzman
Dariush is on a 4 fight win streak with wins over Moises, Klose, Camacho, and Dober. He has faced a bunch of dangerous strikers in his run in the UFC and it's been awhile since he was stopped (Hernandez & Barboza) or submitted (Chiesa). Holtzman is on a 2 fight win streak with wins over Dong Hyun Ma & Jim Miller. He dropped a decision to Nik Lentz which suggests that Dariush will control this fight as it suits him, and test him on the feet before potentially putting him on his back and pounding his way to forcing turtle and finishing by RNC.

Stewart vs Pitolo
Darren Stewart has always to hear him tell it been a violent striker with lethal power in his elbows et cetera, and I don't doubt that may have been the case outside the UFC, but his UFC resume tells a different tale: 2 decision wins, 2 stoppage wins, and 5 losses. Pitolo is 2-1 in the UFC, both wins by stoppage, and a decision loss. Stewart holds the advantage in UFC tenure, but I think Pitolo hurts him and puts him away here.


Means vs Staropoli
Means has always had an up and down UFC run with a win or 2 in a row then a loss and back and forth: he has wins over Alves, Rainey, Garcia, Howard and losses to Price, Moraes, Mohammed, and Matt Brown. I don't think Staropoli is the guy who hand him a loss here, Staropoli is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Alves and Aldana and a loss to Salikhov. Means by decision.

UFC Yaaaaaaas Fight Island 3 Results: Whitaker Edges, Werdum Werdums, et al

Whitaker looked nervous early on, but picked up the timing and found his jab, and edged out Till. Till was setting traps with his feints and distance control and streaking forward, but Whitaker didn't bite on any big feints, and found his range and workrate as the rounds wore on. It doesn't diminish Till's stock much at Middleweight as Whitaker is a former champ with wins over a Hall of Fame worthy resume, and if anything, fighting 5 rounds in his newfound weightclass I suspect is more of a net gain for his career and confidence as opposed to short sightedly seeing it as a loss or suggestive as an overall assessment of his place in the division as a whole.

Werdum snatched up a single leg, hit a trip, and despite some neary escapes by Gustaffson, the ADCC champ did as was expected once he had the back: transitioned to an armbar and took his time, working toward the wrist and extricating the arm to get a first round submission.

Shogun edged out Lil Nog over 3 rounds to make his record against him 3-0 in a fight that I guess was a legacy to pay Lil Nog one last time before he probably retires. He's something like 2-8 in his last 10 fights, and as much as I support paying legends money in the twilight of their career, watching these 2 hurt one another was at times hard for me watch. They're adults, and every fighter gets to do this as long as they'd like, but it's a fine line between consenting adults and cosigning shopworn fighters to pad a main event card.

Paul Craig did what he likes to do which is chain together submissions as soon as his back hits the mat. He briefly looked for a guillotine to counter a single leg takedown, locked up a Mir lock/keylock from open guard. He went to feet on hips, overhooking one arm and palm-posting on the bicep and shot his long ass legs up, with some adjustments, continued to cinch in the triangle from bottom, ultimately getting another submission to add to his record.

Chimaev came true to his word and picked up a second stoppage win inside of about 2 weeks. He had his hands locked around his opponent within 13 seconds, dragged him to the mat, used the Dagestani handcuff grip to transition between top, back, and mount while landing punches, ultimately leading to a TKO inside of round 1. Glad to see a prospect fast tracking himself with some quick stoppage wins in succession to get himself apart from the rest of the relatively unknown guys at his tier in the weight class. 

UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs Till - Picks & Predictions

Whittaker vs Till: Whitaker has done something Till hasn't: he faced Romero twice and came away the victor. The larger question is what effect did that have on him long term. Till for his own part was stopped by Masvidal and Woodley (both welterweights) and fought a cautious fight against Gastelum. For all his bluster, Till doesn't always fight as the aggressive juggernaut he claims to be. His fight with Stephen Thompson and the Woodley fight show that he is largely unable and unwilling to lead. Whitaker isn't afraid to lead (he had to do so with Romero who looks to conserve energy over the course of the fight and blitz his way to success intermittently. The question is how intelligently does Whittaker lead the dance and the answer is probably just fine. Romero is as dangerous a fight as there is in any division on the feet due to his willingness to fight and ugly, boring fight but also blitz with a flying knee or whatever after lulling you into boredom for most of a round. I'm concerned about the damage toll of those 5 round fights with Romero but also suspect that Whittaker is smart enough to navigate the counter-striking of Till and if Woodley and Masvidal can put Till away, I have no doubt that Whittaker can hurt him and finish him as well. Whittaker's only semi recent loss other than Adesanya is to Wonderboy Thompson back in 2014 but given the number of strikers and heavy hitters he's faced since then I don't think Till can use that fight as an indicator of expected outcome. I pick Whittaker by TKO in round 3.

Lil Nog vs Shogun: God knows how this fight will go as both guys having such wildly intermittent success and loss in the UFC. Lil Nog has fought 8 times since 2011 compiling a record of 4-4 with wins over Tito Ortiz (yep), Rashad Evans, Cummins, and Alvey and dropping losses to Spann, Bader, Rua, and Rumble Johnson. Shogun has 13 times since late 2011 and compiled a record of 5-7-1. Shogun has fought most of the people of any era in any promotion worth fighting. Shogun has wins over Dan Henderson, Pedro, Lil Nog, Te Huna, Anderson and has dropped fights to Gustaffson, Anthony Smith, OSP, Dan Henderson etc.

Shogun and Lil Nog alike both have the ability to stop and be stopped by one another. This fight is a pick 'em to me as both guys are still dangerous and crafty as veteran professional fighters but their mileage is the likely determinant in the outcome of this fight. I will go with Lil Nog due to less accumulated damange since their initial fight.

Gustaffson vs Werdum: Interesting. Seeing Werdum fade against the plodding march you down style of Oleinik (I say that as a huge fan of Oleinik) doesn't bode well for a fleet of foot Gustaffson who can work off his jab and we know fight for 5 rounds. How well Gustaffson carries extra weight for 3 rounds could have him looking like OSP in that fight awhile back, but I don't think that's the case. I think Gustaffson jabs his way to a decision over the course of 3 rounds.

UFC Fight Night 172: Figueiredo Becomes Flyweight King, Gastelum Taps, Kneebars...et al

What a night of finishes: we had a heel hook, a kneebar counter to a calf-slicer, a TKO, a guillotine, and a triangle amongst a solid night of fights.

Hermannson showed by the basics of leg lock defense still matter, the women's flyweight match-up produced one of the most serious kneebar finishes I've seen in MMA, and Figueiredo showed that he's a flyweight who can stop even the very best at flyweight in exciting fashion (that critique of flyweights we often hear).

Askarov utilized wash/rinse/repeat takedowns and forward pressure to take a decision even though Pantoja got to his back in two of the rounds. I suspect that third round was the dealbreaker but I was bummed to see Pantoja not given credit for his continual submission attacks throughout the fight.

Moreno is the obvious title defense for Figueiredo with Perez lagging close behind. All of these top 5 flyweights are exciting to be honest, and I honestly don't care who gets first crack at Figueiredo as they'll all produce exciting fights.

Arman Tsarukyan picked up a win over Davi Ramos as an increasingly frustrated Ramos proved unable to deal with the footwork and work rate of Arman. Ramos tried the sticking his chin out and the dropping his hands, but even when Arman would dart into range, Ramos proved largely unable to cleanly tag his opponent, nor was he willing to shoot many if any meaningful takedowns at range. It's hard to side with an upset fighter that did the same thing for  rounds against a guy who you knew would likely engage in this gameplan, but also, Arman put Ramos on his back in the first round, and actually stayed down with Ramos so Ramos had an early going opportunity to do his thing without the accumulated sweat of multiple rounds, and was largely ineffective.

Hermannson is 7-3 in his previous 10 UFC fights with losses only to Feirera, Thiago Santos, and Jarod Cannonier. Gastelum is by far his biggest win to date but has also notched wins over Jacare, Leites, Meerschaert, and others. I still worry as to his chances against the dangerous strikers of which there are several in this division.

Work in Progress Foot & Leglock Ideas from my Finishers 12 Superfight

Been tying together some new things I worked on during the Covid-induced break from competing. Sub Only is a preferable way to try some new attacks in that I'll have 8 minutes of regulation where losing some points to position or a guard pass won't be the end of the world. If you're not trying to get the finish from less than ideal places in submission only format, I don't know where else you're going to go for it under duress. Seeing guys do F2Win or other non-scoring formats and attempt zero submissions is comical.

There's a fair amount to unpack here as I was employing some basic/known leg dig out entries from bottom but also utilizing the shallow/Musumeci hook behind my opponent's right knee. The risk of the backstep in NoGi (and Gi tbh) against a standing opponent is higher than with single leg X or some other more conventionally used hooks, but later in the match I adjusted and caught his free foot and utilized it to sweep/force an off-balance/stumble to negate this risk. Another counter to a standing passer when they are looking to backstep is to thread the free leg behind the knee and lace from there on the initial backstep attempt, I just and followed to hunt for a short ankle lock belly down style.

I close out the clip with some time spent in Splurgeo/Sergio Hernandez guard. There are toe hold options from there that combined with sweeps are effective as they protect their foot from the known threat of the hoe hold. The sequence ended with me lacing the legs/inside sankaku but being pinned down flat on my side and unable to finish digging out the leg/elevate him to then attack the heel et cetera.

UFC on ESPN+30: Figeuiredo vs Benavidez, Gastelum vs Hermannson Predictions

It's time for Benavidez to get one last belt shot. The guy has outlasted virtually the entire division at this point, and if this isn't the time, I don't know what to say. I don't know that this fight will end much differently than the previous one TBH, ans Figueiredo has less mileage and less years on him. Behind them though are a bunch of tough, dangerous, younger guys with considerably experienced (Moreno and Perez have 42 fights worth of experience between the two of them) fighters and Askarov and Pantoja who fight on the same card and have 36 fights of experience between the two of them. Winning the belt in this division seems like just the first step in looking to cement a legacy as there are 3-5 guys all dangerous that are waiting to dethrone whoever takes it this weekend.
My prediction is Figueiredo by stoppage in the 4th or 5th round.

Gastelum vs Hermannson:
It's a simple read, I don't see Hermannson giving Gastelum the trouble his previous opponents have as Hermannson it just not that dangerous to Gastelum. I hate being this confident about a fight but I just can't see how Hermannson hangs with Gastelum the way Till or Romero or Weidman did. This is such a huge jump up in opponent level for Hermannson. His wins over Leites, Branch, and Souza not withstanding, I don't see Gastelum having to fight at any range of the fight that he doens't want to, and if Cannonier could put Hermannson out, I can't imagine a fight where Gastelum doesn't do the same.

Lower on the card we have Davi Ramos facing Arman Tsarukyan. Ramos is coming off of a loss to Islam Makhachev. It's been frustrating to watch Ramos neglect to have the conditioning to force the fight to the mat where he has the obvious advantage over many opponents. He's been content to kickbox much longer in fights than I would ever expect which is mindblowing to me. He's 4-2 in the UFC with 3 of those wins coming via RNC. Tsarukyan seems a bit more versatile on the feet as he has a head kick KO win and a Spinning back kick + punches win (thanks for the description Sherdog!). He had submission wins earlier on in his career but it's very hard to gauge the level of competition in looking at records of events from abroad (and even regional level events stateside). I was super excited for Ramos coming into the UFC but he seems to have either had to manage his energy level judiciously in fights due to the weight cut or some other unexplained unwillingness to clinch at times that has me concerned for this fight. I could see Arman with a greater striking skillset content to pick Ramos apart as they move around the cage and picking up a unanimous decision, unfortunately. 

Hump Day UFC on ESPN 13: Kattar vs Ige, Tim Elliott, and Others climb the ladder

Benoit vs Elliott:
Benoit seemed willing to backpedal and pick his shots in the first round and primarily backpedal. In the second round, he shot in a takedown and was reversed via guillotine and mounted but avoided much damage from bottom position. Benoit also managed to use butterfly guard to get in a solid kneebar attempt which had Elliott grimacing and with some clearer striking as Elliott waded in hands down and head bobbing, the second round probably went to Benoit by a clear margin. I was perplexed to see the tweets coming in with Elliott down rounds as it was only the 2nd round that was clearly for him, and even then, with the guillotine to mount vs the kneebar, you could make the case for either fighter taking the 2nd round. Benoit seems unwilling to jab his way forward into range and rather needs to plant his feet to strike and against a veteran with erratic movement like Elliott, he wasn't able to pull the trigger when Elliott was in front of him, and Elliott isn't unhittable as anyone who's seen him fight can attest. Elliott picked up the win, but it doesn't raise his stock toward a title shot as Benoit has alternated wins and losses virtually his entire UFC run. Elliott just inked a new UFC deal which he says him for being professional and a company man. He'll have to clean up his taking chances style ever so slightly if he wants to make a legitimate run at the belt, which is now wide open at 125 as Figueiredo vs Benavidez will soon settle the clash of headbutts questionable stoppage and weight miss debacle in their last outing. It doesn't really matter who wins the belt for Elliott as he has losses to each of them (Benavidez in 2014 by submission and Figueiredo by submission in 2019). Elliott will have to pick off some the likes of Moreno, Pantoja, and Perez as the top ranked guys not slated to fight for the belt soon which is actually good for him as he hasn't previously fought them and they'll need a dance partner with a solid resume to vie for a rationale to give them a title fight. 

Rivera vs Stammann:
Rivera simply outworked Stamman who spent much more time backing up than I've seen in previous fights. He seemed wary of fatiguing in the first 2 rounds but by then was probably down on the scorecards anyway. It wasn't a breakout performance for either guy, as Rivera just outworked him with some jabs and kicks, and by pressing him against the cage and fighting for more takedowns. Rivera has only lost to Yan, Moraes, and Aljamain Sterling, which is wild because Moraes was the only one who stopped him. I think folks have slept on him since that Moraes KO which is silly because the rest of his resume is wins over Faber, Almeida, Alcantara, and Munoz amongst others. Rivera may want to stump for a fight with or Cruz (which was booked previously but didn't happen) or Raphael Assuncao (though he'd be coming off a loss) as it doesn't do Rivera any good to beat any more guys less than top 10 if the goal is to fight for the belt. He's beaten enough unranked and now top 10-15ish level guys that he had to finagle a fight with another guy with a considerable resume to erase the lost momentum from the Moraes stoppage.

Kattar vs Ige:
The fight played out about how I expected, with the reach and precision of Kattar being more effective across 5 rounds. Kattar had some kick catches he used to create takedowns but didn't engage much on the ground because why bother when you're picking your opponent apart on the feet. He's 2 UFC losses are decision to Zabit and Moicano, so that tells you he's definitely a cut above the bottom half of the top 10 at featherweight and now has wins over Ige, Jeremy Stephens, Ricardo Lamas, Andre Fili, and Shane Burgos. He's quietly compiled a solid resume of wins and can join the retinue of almost contenders who will want to face Holloway to stamp a proof that they're ready to face Volkanovski. 

UFC 251 3 Title Bout Event Post Event Reflections

I'm thankful JiuJitsu and the UFC have carried on during all this and I was worried that a card packed with so many notable fights might have that dreaded misfire that can happen when expectations outpace the reality of stylistic match-ups.

Volkanovski and Holloway produced another closely contested fight with Holloway doing much of the stalking and Volkanovski debatably landing heavier shots or landing at the end of a combination? An errant last minute takedown counter in the final round but also getting knocked down in earlier rounds, I'm left unexcited to see them scrap for a third time in a row.

Namajunas did what I expected she would if not KO'd by a slam which was pick off Andrade coming in which has been shown to be the gameplan to defeat her forward pressure.

Usman showed why he has only one stoppage in the UFC prior to his TKO of Colby, and I don't see that gameplan changing. I don't know that he'll be able to press Burns against the cage after a full camp, and seeing Masvidal largely unhurt by Usman coming into the fight on 6 days notice was not reassuring of Usman's ability to finish. He spent much of the clinch utilizing foot stomps and shoulder checks like it was UFC Brazil 20 years ago and there were no ref restarts due to inactivity or lack of progress.

Usman has adopted the early era Guida gameplan of minimal striking, locked hands against the cage, and because his opponent is pressed against the cage, and perhaps he scores takedowns in 2-3 rounds, he takes a decision. I don't doubt he will defend the belt a few more times (not sure against Burns TBH), but against a Leon Edwards he will implement exactly the gameplan he did here. Masvidal with a longer came would likely spend less time pressed against the cage, but would need to utilize more cage management to avoid losing rounds via papercut style striking in the clinch.

Yan stopped Aldo after weathering the earlier storm from Aldo implementing both kicks and punches and even a classic upright Muay Thai stance to throw off Yan. As Aldo's hands dropped just a bit, and he started pulling away from punches and utilizing head movement I grew concerned, and the takedown that was reversed I felt spelled the beginning of the end. It's crazy to see Aldo still in that top whatever % of fighters on earth in 2 weight classes (145 and 135) and to hear people say he's done or faded et cetera. Prior to the atrocious decision loss to Moraes and the stoppage to Yan, and decision loss to Volkanovski, he had TKO'd Stephens and Moicano ferociously. Before that it was 2 losses to Holloway, a win over Frankie Edgar, and prior to that the loss to McGregor. It may be that Aldo doesn't have 5 rounds left in him, which I say not meaning anything other than in looking at his record his recent stoppage losses only came to Holloway and Yan. Perhaps the pacing of striking over a longer fight forces him to be more conservative and allows a younger fighter more time to mount offense? At any rate, I theorize only because his resume is so ridiculously littered with name opponents and wins it's hard to write him off just because he lost in the 5th round of a fight to a guy who was on a 6 fight win streak in the UFC with a stoppage win 50% of the time in his UFC career up to date. 

EBI Overtime Event Countdown Special - Featherweights

An interesting cast of characters gathering guys from previous EBI's, combat JiuJitsu events, sub only grapplers and both up and coming sub grapplers versus old school NoGi names:

I've gone to OT a total of 7 times in the past 3 years. I'm 5-2 in OT, with all of my wins coming via submission (4 RNC's and one back triangle keylock) and both my losses coming via submission. Overall, I like competing in different rule sets and appreciate the awarding of points for position but appreciate a tiebreaker format in the event there's no score or a tie on points. I'd rather watch EBI OT rounds than golden score or the weird pick a position and golden score Third Coast Grappling thing they do that just results in one guy picking closed guard or the same guy trying to pass that spent most of regulation unable to do so et cetera. If the score was tied or no submission occurred in regulation, having competitors start in less than neutral positions makes the most sense if it is a true sub only event. I appreciated what Zach Maslany pointed out during the Finishers 12 broadcast this weekend in saying that Fight2Win is not sub only. It's more accurate to call it sub or ref's decision which produces either a submission or some fake sub attempts designed to sway judge opinion over the course of a match.

Opinions differ, but if the heart of the ethos of JiuJitsu is "survive the bad positions" or "submit your opponent" then I can't think of a better test of that ethos than a tie breaker that tests that skillset...

My ideal ruleset for NoGi would be more stringent rules for sitting to guard (this barely graze them with your fingertips then egg beater your legs and guard retention for 5 minutes business is silly or the -1 point for ADCC forces the bottom player to be more proactive from bottom rather than just stall out regulation), and points for 8 minutes of regulation then EBI OT. I think it would offer the best of awarding positionally minded JiuJitsu but eliminate the need for at times suspect or subjective judging criteria.

Finishers 12 Lockdown Full Stream: EBI OT Shootout Event

I had a superfight at an hour and 4 minutes in that I won via RNC in OT, then did the OT bracket and won my quarterfinal match via RNC then lost via armbar in the semifinals.

Big shoutout to the Finishers guys, JM Holland and Zach Maslany for once again making a venue for sub only grapplers a professional and fun experience. 

UFC 251: Usman vs Masvidal, Volkanovski vs Holloway, Yan vs Aldo - Picks & Predictions

Usman vs Masvidal - in light of Burns doing to Woodley was Usman did prior to that, I'm less hyped by that dominating win by Usman than I was previously. The win over Colby was also just Usman being slightly better at the same gameplan as his opponent. Usman is a decision machine with only one stoppage in the UFC proper (Sergio Moraes by KO) and a finish on the TUF Finale ATT vs Blackzilians. Usman's sole loss is a submisson loss by RNC back in 2013. Masvidal is the polar opposite stylistically: his 3 stoppage losses date back to 2009, 2008, and 2005 respectively. He's dropped a number of close decisions and split decisions (Iaquinta, Khabilov, Benson Henderson, Lorenz Larkin, Wonderboy, & Demian Maia). As a result, coming into this phase of his career he has astutely picked up the finishing pace/strategy and put away his last 3 opponents (Till, Askren, Diaz).

Usman, I expect, will look to tie Masvidal up and press him against the cage and bodylock style drag him to the ground. Masvidal is always a much more shrewd gameplanner than he intimates via interview and with his persona. Seeing that footage of him drilling that flying knee heard round the world was akin to seeing MacGregor drill the exact finishing sequence he used on Aldo. Masvidal has always hidden what a calculated professional he is very well with his meme worthy interview gems. I don't think he was caught unaware that he and Usman would face one another in the next year. IN fact, I'm sure he has been working parts of a gameplan for Usman on and off this whole time. Usman to fight the kind of fight he did against Woodley and Colby has to spend long portions of the fight in range with Masvidal. At the outside he will set him up and tag him at reach/length and finish him, meaning Usman's gameplan has to be the Tyron Woodley/RDA pressure forward gameplan. I think that plays into Masvidal's hands and I think Masvidal hurts Usman and finishes him.

Volkanovski vs Holloway 2 - I see this fight going the same way as the first. Perhaps Holloway needed a break from carrying the hopes of this people et cetera, and this time away did him good. Perhaps the time as champ and fighting 5 round fights has taken its toll. I see Volkanovski coming in with more confidence than the first fight and tweaking some early errors in the first couple rounds at the outset. I see him winning by a wider margin this time.

Yan vs Aldo - Aldo can still turn in dominant performances (ask Moicano & Stephens). Then he can also turn in faded performances like both the Holloway fights & Volkanovski. Is Yan going to dominate Aldo with his punches? Punch centric fighters actually tend to give Aldo the best odds of winning. Yan has beaten several notable names on his resume (Faber, Rivera, Dodson) but his resume is nothing the likes of Aldo. To be honest, Faber is the only truly notable name that you can point to on Yan's resume. He decisioned Dodson and Rivera the 2 fights prior to that. Seeing Aldo's last performance against Moraes, I have to lean toward Aldo on this one. Punch centric fights favor Aldo, and Yan just doesn't have the resume to make me think he can beat Aldo 3 of 5 rounds, especially if Aldo is diligent early on with his leg kicks. They have been notably absent in the volume he once threw them with making me suspect perhaps his legs after years of damage in fights aren't up for high volume low kick gameplans, but his arsenal of other kicks to fend off the punch centric Petr Yan is definitely within Aldo's skillset and legendary resume. Aldo by stoppage in the 4th round.

Andrade vs Namajunas 2 - I'm always wary of fighters coming off of long layoffs and coming off a violent slam/stoppage loss to the woman she's facing in her return fight. That being said, I think it was a fluke and she got caught off guard and never seemed to get going in the fight TBH. She was coming off a long layoff after the back to back wins over Joanna and got blindsided by a bumrush fighter. Seeing Andrade get violently stopped by Zhang in her last fight should tell Rose that she can do it just the same (not to mention she stopped and beat Joanna who was the Cyborg of her division at the time, looking nigh unstoppable until it had been done). I think Namajunas starts the fight on her backfoot, sticks and moves until she's comfortable and picks off Andrade coming forward which has been done by a previous fighter who stuck to that gameplan (Joanna).

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Salikhov - love to see Elizeu Zaleski fight. He was on quite the streak there back when he had 7 wins in a row, but has since been stopped by Li Jingliang and a decision win over Kunchenko. I think he can easily put together another long win streak and fight for the belt and expect him to put on another entertaining winning performance.

An Chang-rim: 3 Types of Kouchigari & Kouchigari in BJJ competition

The first takedown in the HL below is me hitting a kouchigari off the grip, immediately upon contact at the start of a match:

 

Coming up to standing, I hit a kouchigari with a single leg grip/forcing his weight onto the target leg as he hops:

 

UFC 251 Embedded: "Gamebred" Masvidal Lands in Vegas

Fingers crossed we get to see Masvidal vs Usman. Let the MMA curse Gods take the weekend off and give us this last minute booking!

UFC 251 Countdown Episode: Volkanovski vs Holloway 2, Aldo vs Yan, Andrade vs Namajunas 2

Single Leg Kimura Counter to Bicep Slice Kimura

Kimura counter to a single leg with the head inside. Against opponents wary of the Kimura to the backtake/they keep their back flat on the mat, it's valuable to make them pay, give them a reason to get their back off the mat. This stepover Kimura+bicep slicer does just that and will work even if they grab their own belt, keep their hands locked as a traditional kimura defense. Be sure to punch the arm through the elbow space with enough depth to walk your hand down toward their arm, and rely on the rotation + stepover rather than hoping the pain of the bicep slicer is adequate for force a submission.

Autopsy Report: Tonon Heel Hooks Moizinho @ F2W

Best Mat Grapplers in Judo HL

The omoplata shoulder forward roll to pin or submission shows up. A number of inverted/crunch armbars used to sweep then pin. Lapel feed to amplify turnover power into a pin & stepover loop/lapel choke as well.

UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs Hooker Predictions & Picks

This card is kinda spotty with some interesting bouts throughout on each portion but not the slate/dearth of heavy hitters I now wantonly expect now that we're back to having weekly events. How quickly we forgot not having any sports for several months straight.

Let's see how many more I can get wrong this week:

Poirier vs Hooker:
Poirier has only lost to McGregor, Khabib, Michael Johnson, Cub Swanson, and the Korean Zombie. I say only because that is across something like 23 UFC fights. He's got wins over everyone from Josh Grispi to Holloway to Alvarez to Gaethje and many other names in between. That's not to say that I doubt Hooker in this one, just that Poirier has only lost to some of the very best, and as of recently, only to McGregor and Khabib. Hooker recently has picked up wins over Felder, Iaquinta, Vick, dropped a loss to Edson Barboza and before that picked up wins over Burns, Miller, Pearson. Any concern I have that he can be chopped down by a varied striking attack have faded with his recent 3 wins, but Poirier is a consummate professional who plies his punches better than most and has adjusted to a 5 fight gameplan well. I think Poirier takes this one by stoppage in the 5th round. He conserves energy across longer fights and stays dangerous as he piles on the damage across 5 rounds.

Gall vs Perry:
Either Gall gets Perry to the ground or gets KTFO. Perry's unwillingness to be cornered is concerning but to each his own. I'm not hype on Gall as he's been stopped by far less ferocious strikers. Gall got TKO'd by Diego Sanchez in his fight before last and went to a decision against the unheralded Salim Touahri in August of 2019. Gall's submissions wins are over the likes of Sage Northcutt and CM Punk. I have to say Perry punishes Gall from top and/or standing and wins by KO.

Luis Pena vs Worthy:
I've become a big fan of Luis Pena. His odd persona meets entertaining fight style is fun to watch. He's got a win over a faded Matt Wiman, a loss to Frevola, and a win over Steve Garcia. Worthy AKA "Deathstar" is coming into his 2nd UFC fight after a stoppage win over Devonte Smith. Devonte has 9 wins by TKO out of his 15 wins. I haven't seen enough of his fights to predict how the fight will go on the feet but Pena has a tough style and range to prepare for, he's the favorite going into this due to stronger resume fighting under the lights of the big show. Pena by decision.

I want to be more excited about the other fights on the card but TBH not feeling it. 

Takedowns for BJJ: Lucas Lepri Lapel Single leg (plus some single leg counters)

Due to its versatility in coming up from bottom, it's ability to drag down and score against high level guys, and the ease with which the lapel is often available (can switch off to a collar drag et cetera), this is one of the first takedowns I each students wanting to develop a takedown game for BJJ. I've seen it used from seated up to standing by Cobrinha, from standing by Lucas Lepri, I've seen it used at HW by Rodolfo Vieira: it passes all the metrics for verified as working against high level/knowledgeable opposition.

This counter works whether they grab your belt/over the back (as Canuto did vs Lepri in their match) or in NoGi if they're able to lock up a kimura to force you overhead to counter:

This is a sequence I use against guys who lunge for the single leg with bad posture, and rather than disengage, I want to play the margin, and make them pay for initiating a takedown from inferior posture:

I find it's helpful to have some options other than the back attack or the kimura system as a lot of guys have been using these systems with the spread of information across YouTube and various instructionals. I find this option to bicep crush/kimura, a stepover kimura, and the Tarikoplata are my favorite submission oriented options for guys who keep their back to the mat to prevent the backtake. I use the submission threat to force them to create back exposure and not just hide out.

UFC on ESPN 11: Blaydes vs Volkov Picks & Predictions

Solid mixed of fights with some well known names, notable up and comers and some tried and true stylistic match-ups to boot.

Volkov vs Blaydes
Other than that last 10 seconds loss to Derrick Lewis and a decision loss to Cheick Kongo back in Bellator, Volkov has gotten the win in 7 of his last 9 fights, and that sole loss to Lewis in his UFC tenure. What's more impressive is that despite spending most of his pro career in the UFC, Blaydes has only dropped 2 fights to Ngannou. Blaydes was only 5 fights into his career prior to debuting in the UFC. Talk about pulling a Lebron and jumping into the NBA outta high school. This is a hard one to pick, as neither guy is the type of fighter who has beaten the other. Both guys have gotten stopped by a bomber striker with lethal fists and proven KO power. I worry that Volkov will get dragged to the mat repeatedly by Blaydes who I thought was losing the fight to Werdum before Werdum stupidly pulled guard and stayed on bottom and got pounded out. Can Blaydes keep up the workrate necessary to avoid Volkov's reach for 5 rounds? I think Blaydes puts Volkvov on his back for most of the rounds but that Volkov stops him late in the 4th or 5th round as he increasingly fatigues.

Emmett vs Burgos
Emmett has notched a 6-2 record in the UFC dropping only to Jeremy Stephens and Desmond Green. Otherwise he has wins over Ricardo Lamas and Michael Johnson amongst others. Burgos' best win is a split decison win over Cub Swanson which might suggest he can take out Emmett, but I don't see it happening. Cub's love of a good fight night bonus means he often utilizes a rather one dimensional attack which I don't think Emmett will fall victim to choosing here. I think Emmett picks up a TKO win or a decision win.

Good vs Muhammad
This fight was actually booked in 2016 but didn't due to a positive steroid test by Good and subsequent 2 years on suspension. Since then Good returned to fighting to drop a split decision to Zaleski dos Santos who was on quite a tear at the time. Since then he's beaten Rencountre & Ben Saunders but you'd be hard pressed to find a UFC caliber level name on his resume. Belal Muhammad is decision machine as evidenced by his wins over Means, Millender, Sato, Mein, et cetera. His stoppage loss to Luque doesn't look bad considering Luque has punished a lot of guys in his career, but for an aggressive striker like Lyman, I see Muhammad's decision centric style leading to a split decision loss.

Jim Miller vs Roosevelt Roberts
Miller as of late has looked more shop worn than ever but that ever present flash of what got him all those submission wins over other black belts can rear its head at any time. Roberts use of his jab and range and height could spell disaster for a plodding Jim Miller if he comes out slow in this fight. Roberts' hype train picked up passengers on DWCS, but his win last month over Brok Weaver wasn't so much sensational as it showed an ability to piece together enough components of MMA to batter his opponent then quickly capitalize when it hit the mat. I worry about the height and reach advantage Roberts will enjoy over Miller, but will Miller utilize head movement to avoid the range and close the distance? Miller has won and lost to a who's who list of UFC fighters: everyone on his resume from Guida to Pettis and Poirier and even Chiese, Castillo, and Cerrone.

I'm going to bet against my concern as to his age and mileage and suspect he closed the distance and advances position to get the finish against Roberts.
Miller by RNC.

Clay Guida vs Bobby Green
Guida, much like Miller has a resume that would shut down any sort of 6 degrees of MMA separation debate: he's fought everyone from Bermudez, Kawajiri, Mendes, Lauzon, BJ Penn et al. Green is 1-5-1 in his last 7 fights. If Guida can't win this fight, it really is time to hang it up. Guida by decision.

Camacho vs Frevola
Camacho is 2-3 in the UFC. Frevola is 2-1-1 in the UFC. Easy pick is Frevola by decision.

Modafferi vs Murphy
Everyone's favorite nerd/underdog Modafferi. Proof that intellect and the mind can overcome a lack of physical attributes. I'll always be a fan. Interestingl, Murphy has no submission losses I could find on her record but troubling is her number of TKO/stoppage losses. I have to expect Modafferi will get her down to the mat, advance position and pour on the elbows. Modafferi by TKO.

Hubbard vs Rohskopf
Was super excited to see Joe Solecki in the UFC but he's pulled out due to unforseen circumstances. Solecki and I had actually been on some random grappling superfight events several years ago down south. In his place is oddly enough a guy who I've trained with prior to moving to NYC, Max Rohskopf who has been out in Vegas for a few years since wrestling in North Carolina collegiately. Max is 5-0 in MMA, and was recently seen on the Shugyo no time limit/sub only pro grappling invitational where he picked up a submission win over Ethan Crelinsten. My pick is Rohskopf by wrestling and position leading to a decision. Hubbard took Davi Ramos to decision in the UFC so he's not easy to put away. In fact, his last and only stoppage loss was 2016. His resume outshines here, but I'll go with Rohskopf. 

JitzKing Middleweight Results: Wrestling and Gamesmanship take Marinho to the Gold

Side guard is dead. Laying back on your side and hoping to utilize it to initiate offense only works if your opponent cooperates by coming forward and stepping knee in the middle to initiate passing et cetera. A lot of recent examples illustrate this: Tanquinho vs Miyao at ADCC is the obvious choice, but JT Torres in ADCC also springs to mind. JT utilized this to defeat Lachlan, Nichols, and others. If you show up to the gunfight unwilling to engage in the standing regardless of if you're down on points or if it's overtime, you're predictable. A smart competitor will use this against you. It's simple. Some JiuJitsu and submission only nerds will complain but too many examples have shown this. Guys willing to fight ugly, negating, stalling matches will simply not allow you to do much of the actual JiuJitsu you want to do.

Taza picked up a pull thru kneebar and a heel hook win over 2 guys with (deep breath) minimal awareness of leg entanglements. Marinho and Valdir both showed that gamesmanship and top pressure matter. Valdir took out reigning black belt IBJJF NoGi world champ Johnny Tama by simply being smart with his passing, resetting when necessary, and timing the takedown in OT and clearing the guillotine Tama used to attempt to counter.

Rau picked up a slick opening round outside heel hook from a grip variation less commonly seen that from what I could see actually popped the foot/ankle rather than the knee. Taza was able to pick up the OT win because of some deep leg entanglements because of how Valdir chains together his passes. Marinho avoided the same positions against Rau and was able to do the opposite .

Jimenez used his backtake threat and pressure to negate Tackett's leg dig out attempts, and the size difference was close enough that it worked. Jimenez hunted for the back against Marinho but got target blindess and let his leg get pulled thru then gave up the heel hook as he attempted to tie together a body lock takedown to drag himself onto Marinho's back. The stacking of the bracket with guys who favor a couple of different rule sets was interesting in terms of the matches. John Combs showed his willingness to wrestle which got him through to later in the tournament than he would've managed otherwise.

The days of only playing bottom are winding to a close in NoGi. If you can't wrestle, you're going to lose matches on gamesmanship that have overtime rulesets for golden score, or that require a clearly defined grip in order to pull guard. It also means that in transition you are ultimately unwilling to come up to the feet, and a smart competitor will reset and disengage and reset endlessly if need be. 

UFC Eye vs Calvillo Post Happening Thoughts: Vettori smashes, Eye Whines, et al

Some of the folks who missed weight added insult to injury by losing on top of their apparent lack of professionalism. Eye lost a decision in a fight that was largely forgettable. Vettori smashed Roberson after some initial high elbow guillotines defended by Roberson. Once Roberson's flail and spike himself overhead counter failed a couple times, he accepted bottom position, covered up, got punched, then gave up the backtake and his chin simultaenously. After all the back and forth and insistence about Vettori blowing things out of proportion, he got stopped in the first round having done basically nothing to effect offensively. Not a great look.

Rosa took a split decision over Aguilar despite seeing him walk into punches of varying types. Not egregious judging but also not quite the comeback for a guy who's been out for the better part of 2 years due to injury. Also why was this the fight the 3rd one out from the end?

Fili picked up a split decision that should've been unanimous against Jourdain, a debuting UFC fighter. Fili has wisely begun to mix in takedown with his striking centric style to cement rounds in the bank, but an inability to put away a guy in his debut is questionable as to his ability to broach the upper echelon of this very competitive weight class.

I missed the undercard as I was watching the JitzKing middleweight Pro bracket down in Florida broadcast on FloGrappling.

Know Your Footsweep: Kosotogari vs Kosotogake (with competition examples)

Kosotogari (clear sweeping motion to the outside of the leg):

Kouchigake (a block to the inside of the leg rather than a sweeping motion):
 
Kosotogari (a clear sweeping motion to the outside of the leg):


Kouchigari (clear sweeping and guiding motion to the inside of the leg) In NoGi:

Know Your Ouchigari: calf vs hip, & rotational power

UFC 250 Monday Morning Hangover

A night of not the fights going the way I expected, truth be told.

We all knew Nunes was going to batter her largely outclassed opponent so no surprises there. Nunes never really put on the heat to get the finish. Perhaps she wagered on a decision win on herself and carried Spencer? The betting lines for Nunes by decision were +333 so the money was good if she decided to pull a Jon Jones and carry a fight to decision like he did with Smith when he spent 2 rounds on top of his opponent and literally doing not much more than peppering him with short shots. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but when a fighter as thoroughly outclassed as Spencer was doesn't get put away it seems odd. Minus a single jab that Nunes walked into, Nunes barely took any meaningful strikes at any point in the fight. Who else is there? Nunes seems content to spend time with her wife and their baby and chill whilst a new challenger rises.

Aljamain Sterling: man. Talk about winning in exactly the way you need to so that you're the guy after the vacant belt fight takes place (or to take the place of someone who pulls out due to injury. I'm honestly not wildly excited about Petr Yan vs Aldo, but am excited to watch Aljamain fight anyone in the division.

Sandhagen nearly got put out by that first RNC squeeze, then never seemed to recover the composure to escape the second. It's wild how he'd looked against all previous UFC opposition then blinked and had Aljamain on his back. I'd like to see him face the loser of Aldo vs Yan. Garbrandt will probably say he won't face him coming off of a loss to Aljamain, so Sandhagen is in that odd position of having lost to Aljamain but has a win over Assuncao so facing Assuncao who is coming off the loss to Garbrandt doesn't make sense. Sandhagen hadn't lost in 3 years coming into this fight, so I hope it serves as a retooling stop before he fights for the belt in 2-3 fights.

Magny picked up a win over Martin but as big a Magny fan as I am, it was razor thin. The smaller cage I think definitely had him spend more time clinching against the cage and less time at range than is normally the case, as I've seen Magny blow out guys with better UFC resumes than Martin. Martin now has the all-time welterweight win record in the UFC but isn't in that top 5 range that will get him a title shot, which is wild when you think about it.

O'Malley did what he needed to do to stamp him as certified in the UFC, no longer busting up new UFC signees but rather putting away a dangerous veteran striker. Wineland initially avoided the kicks that I had thought were the bigger threat, but as soon as Wineland froze on the centerline, O'Malley stiff Ko'd him with one shot. I can see that O'Malley wants to utilize the hype to ply his wares for more money, but just as soon as the UFC hype train can spotlight you, it can send you to the nether regions of obscurity. I'm all for guys knowing their worth, but in the realm of fighters having been out of work for months on end, and the backlog of fighters waiting to fight, I question the intelligence of now being the time to hit up the UFC for a deal re-negotiation.

Caceres busted up Hooper who showed his plunge head forward first striking style to increasing inability to tie up his opponent. Caceres is crafty and has taken much more experienced fighters to decision. I hope this fight was a canary in the coal mine for Hooper to realize his striking has to get shored up lest he fall to the wayside like Brian Ortega when he's unable to tie up his opponent and drag them to the mat.

Heinisch looks huge in this weight class. His striking looked much improved from his DWCS fight I saw and the fact that its' backed up by a controlling, aggressive wrestling game when he wants to use it suggests a solid repertoire of skills for the middleweight division.

Perez showed with his 2nd leg kick TKO win the guys really has a tool set. His punches are still a bed wide and his combination structure is unvaried, but with a chopping leg kick game, and solid scrambling ability, he has the skillset to take apart the stick and move striking game of other featherweights as evidenced by his 2 wins via leg kick.

Herbert Burns put away a very tough and skilled veteran Evan Dunham suggesting that while not as BJJ accomlished as Gilbert Burns, Herbert has the versatility of dangerous striking and grappling necessary to be successful in MMA. 

UFC 250 Picks & Predictions: Nunes vs Spencer, Garbrandt vs Assuncao et al

A lot to unpack here. This is the best offering by the UFC overall since they resumed putting on events. Yes, they did a 2 title fight card, but this card has meaningful fights on every portion:

Nunes vs Spencer
The most dominating female MMA fighter of all time puts her belt on the line against an actual kinda 145'er. Nunes much like Cyborg has been padding her FW belt against non 145'ers, and TBH, 135 has done the same with fluffed up fighters not cutting weight to fight in various weight classes. It's hard to see someone dethroning Nunes. Spencer did survive against Cyborg in a fight she lost by decision. It wasn't particularly one sided and it suggests that she won't get blown out by Nunes. Spencer has won her fights primarily by finish but without the true wrestling I suspect someone needs to dethrone Nunes, I don't see her winning 3 out of 5 rounds to take a decision home. Nor do I see her KO'ing and stopping Nunes as we've get to see Nunes really hurt in a fight beyond a few stunning shots. When you're at the top, there's always gonna be the fight where you look human for the first time, but Nunes hasn't showed any of those clues as of late. Nunes by unanimous decision.

Garbrandt vs Assuncao
Coming off of 3 stoppage losses is a tough way to approach Assuncao who has the wrestling and varied striking to tag you and jump on the finish. Assuncao has fought everyone and has ONLY fought quality guys almost his entire UFC career (and notables in the WEC). He got tagged and submitted by Marlon Moraes and dropped a decision to surging Sandhagen but is Garbrandt's punching centric style going to be enough to clip Assuncao? Assuncao has fought everyone from Faber to Dillashaw to Joe Lauzon. I can't trust Garbrandt's chin coming off of 3 stoppage losses and so Assuncao is the pick by submission in round 2.

Sterling vs Sandhagen
I deeply appreciate when the UFC books a couple of the top guys in a division in the same event so we naturally emerge with some future fights to book rather than the vague "it might be for a title shot or maybe not" programming we normally get leading up to fights. Randomly a year or two ago I rolled with Sterling at Renzo's in the city. His grip strength and pressure on top are deceptively strong for his lean build. It's super interesting as Sterling can pull of things like Suloev stretch wins for the submission. Sandhagen hasn't lost since he reached the UFC and doesn't have a loss in the past 3 years. His wins over Alcantara, Assuncao, and Lineker all stand out as a real ability to shine against big names and experienced/dangerous opponents. Sterling has faced bigger names over the stretch of his UFC career and has dropped 2 decision losses  (Assuncao & Caraway) and a KO loss to Moraes. The pick is Sandhagen by split decision.

Magny vs Martin
Magny by submission or TKO on the ground. I've actually rolled with Magny at Renzo's in the city (super nice guy).

Wineland vs O'Malley
Wineland coming back from ACL surgery is always a tough call. O'Malley has all the confidence in the world that comes from the hype train and HL reel wins. A crafty veteran with a punch centric style is a good test for O'Malley but also a stylistically predictable one to prepare for. The UFC is tossing O'Malley a fight tailor made for his crowd pleasing style with a known veteran name as a possible stepping stone.
I dont' like betting on fights with someone returning from knee injury in particular. Having come back from 2 ACL surgeries there's a lot of inability to anticipate if they are actually capable of coming back first fight in recognizable as to who they were previously.
O'Malley by decision.

That main card alone is a dynamite watch.

Caceres by decision
Meerschaert by submission

Perez vs Formiga: Formiga by decision

Burns little brother vs Dunham - I love Dunham but any time a guy is vascillating between retirement and not, I have a hard time betting on them. Dunham is a guy I've always loved fighting as he like Bocek and others really put together striking, wrestling, and submission attempts in their approach to MMA. My heart goes with Dunham by craftiness but my brain says Burns little brother by wrestling and athleticism. 

UFC 250 Countdown Episode: Nunes vs Spencer& Garbrandt vs Assuncao,

The only rematch I want to see is Garbrandt vs Cruz. Make it happen.

Podcast Alert: Star-Lord Josh Leduc & I talk stalling calls, rule sets, my background et al

UFC on ESPN 9 Woodley vs Burns Aftermath: Burns Usman's Woodley, Favorites take L's

Tough night of beats for my picks. Elliott and Smolka both dropped submissions to relatively unknown guys with much shorter UFC resumes.

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver:
Roosevelt showed some danger in his straight right hand which gave Weaver trouble early on at points in the fight, and Roosevelt displayed a real linear precisision in his use of punches and back control to get the finish. His tall frame combined with punching (both jab and cross) at length + grappling acumen makes him a tough nut to crack for guys at lightweight.

Ivanov edged out the first round against Augusto, but Sakai started chopping with the kicks and more effective forward pressure in the 2nd round, but Ivanov scored a takedown into half-guard with about 30 seconds left and ended the round on top. Debatable as to how to score the round pending your preference for takedowns vs forward pressure and overall strike variety (Sakai landed a heavy body kick and leg kicks throughout). A super obvious fence grab was observed but not penalized in the 3rd round, which was a close round overall with Ivanov looking the more weary of the two, in an overall close fight both in terms of strike count by round and with Ivanov doing more of the stalking forward in the 3rd round. I thought Ivanov deserved the nod, but neither fighter was egregiously treated by the awarding of a split decision for Augusto.

Dern hit a pull through/armpit grip kneebar which is a favorite submission of mine against Cifers. Cifers actually was picking Dern apart similar to Dern's last fight where she lost a fight on the feet when she wasn't able to drag her opponent to the mat. Cifers laneded some heavy shots against the catch but came forward to eagerly in the clinch and got uchimata'd but in doing so actually got top position and didn't have to stay on the ground with Dern, but took the bait and the proceeded to defend a leg entry which she had plenty of time and space to counter and clear.

Main event: Woodley vs Burns
I came into this fight thinking Woodley due to either champ burnout or not preparing to retain the belt caused his performance against Usman, but Burns showed that Woodley's reflexes and ability to narrowly evade punches then counter with his monster right hand has faded. Much like a Roy Jones Jr. there's an intelligible delay in his ability to clip guys and play the margins just enough to evade and counter. Woodley isn't one to lead and so he's forced to let Burns use a full variety of strikes (both punch combinations and kicks). 53 seconds into the first round Burns was mounted on Woodley and that was as telling as inidicator for the fight as there was going to be. I don't doubt that Woodley can still beat other welterweights but the blue print for beating him has been revealed by Burns and Usman.

Elliott vs Royval
I love watching Tim Elliott fight, man. He comes forward, throws kicks and punches at odd angles, he was working a crucifix style merkle to great effect, then throw in a half nelson style turnover to almost take the back and/or pass the guard from attacking his opponent's turtle defense. Sadly, he got caught in the second round by a head-arm triangle. Elliott got to a crucifix then switched to a palm to palm grip arm in guillotine but lost it and gave up mount in the process then while defending the back gave up the head-arm triangle.

Smolka vs Kenney
Kenney is that guy who gets paired up with a more known UFC fighter and if you haven't done your homework you find yourself on the wrong end of the pick. Smolka has some good kick catches but his looping punches missed (he did some good body work punching) and one he was tagged, Kenney latched on a high elbow guillotine from which he finished without even solidifying mount. Impressive finishing instincts.

Roosevelt Roberts vs Brok Weaver

UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns Predictions

UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns Predictions:

Woodley vs Burns: It's easy to forget Woodley's dominance after that smashing he got from Usman. Different theories have been floated such as burnout from being champ or dividing his time between other opportunities and actually just training to remain champ. Burns however has only looked better since no longer cutting an insane amount of weight. Does Burns have the heat in his hands to face down the bazooka one punch one shot Woodley power? I don't see Burns taking Woodley down as Woodley fights diligently backing up to line you up for that one shot punch to wobble of KO you. Woodley will also fight as boring a fight as possible to minimize risk taking.
Woodley by split decision.

Ivanov vs Sakai - Ivanov debuted in the UFC with a 5 round fight with Cigano. If that doesn't tell you he's top tier HW then I don't know what to tell you. He used more of his takedowns and grappling in Bellator to batter lesser skilled fighters but as of his UFC career has spent more time in kickboxing battles. Would love to see him go back to that wheelhouse but we may just get him looking to win the majority of 3 rounds standing up in this one. Sakai is no walkover prospect (in the eyes of UFC fans who don't know him). His only loss is a split decision to Kongo. He's 3-0 in the UFC with 2 stoppages. That being said, Ivanov is a slick veteran who has fought all over the world after a hiatus due to being stabbed nearly to death by gangsters. Ivanov has wone the PFL and WSOF belt. He was runner up in the Bellator HW tournament. Ivanov picks this one via split decision in a close fight. His best path to winning is using his comparable grappling to drag Sakai to the mat and not test the striking acumen of Sakai that recently put away Tybura.

Cifers vs Dern - Dern will drag this one to the mat and win by armbar.

Chookagian vs Schevchenko - Chookagian by decision in a mirror of her losing title fight effort.

Tim Elliott vs someone - I'd really like to see Elliott get back on track as I've always been a fan of his style and wild man skillset. Elliott by submission.

Louis Smolka vs someone - Also a big fan of Smolka and his submission wins. Hopefully he resists the urge to scrap on the feet and gets it to the mat and slaps on a submission