Friday, February 20, 2015

All the Gamblingz! My Bigfoot/Mir UFC Fight Night 61 Picks for Sunday

I'm gonna skip the part where we lament the formerly twice hot pissing steroid/PED Bigfoot is facing a guy who hasn't won a fight in 3 some odd years as the main event but hey, it's a Sunday, and I won't complain. Though, I think, in a strange way, we as fans supporting with our viewership these lackluster cards may be part of the larger problem, but that is a debate for another time:

Since I got back into semi-serious MMA sports picks/betting, I've gone 27-18 in picks. Not bad. I tend to go 3-4 events where I pick 60-70% correct then inexplicably have a bad event where I go something like 4-7 ( like I did UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz. It's usually cards with guys coming off of long layoffs or guys with some debatable losses and/or some undercard guys with not a lot of available footage of their early career online).

The other element is the betting lines as I think it's a no-brainer to get on Bigfoot Silva over Mir but the current line doesn't make it worth much in terms of putting several hundred on him to make some money back.

Without further ado, here we go:
I don't see Mir being any different here than he was in his previous 4 losses. I mean, you have to go back to December of 2011 to find a win (it's over Big Nog, if that's saying anything).

I don't see this being any different than Mir's losses where he gets battered on the feet, folds against the cage under pressure and gets TKO'd whilst on bottom position.

Michael Johnson is one of those guys who I was never impressed with but has quietly picked up some notable wins. Barboza is also a young guy who has looked amazing at times and flat at others (kneebar loss to the black belt/Brazilian tapping machine named Miller). That stoppage loss to Cerrone is also no big thing as a ton of guys have been beaten and/or stopped by Cerrone. In looking at their resumes I compare who Barboza's lost to versus who Johnson has beaten.
They've both got enough wins against good guys and losses to some other good ones to make this the usual pick 'em contest with Barboza a sliiiiight favorite in my mind. Barboza's fought about 6 months more recently but that time off could bring in a refreshed Johnson depending how he uses his off time.....again though, I give the slight edge to Barboza in a 3 round decision.

I'm going with Alvey due to the high number of TKO's on his record against semi-nameless opposition or not, the guy can punch. I think Khabilov is also a no brainer as far as picks go but the line makes betting on him cost prohibitive. TJ Waldburger is another no brainer. Some brazilians who both beat up a bunch of their countrymen which makes determining how skilled they are also makes that a tough fight to pick so I'll go with the guy who has the edge in experience and stoppages: Trator. 

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