Monday, February 8, 2016

UFC 196 Gambling Fallout & Upcoming Cash Bets

Well, I won cash betting on Wonderboy. Hendricks looked even worse than I expected. I figured Wonderboy would do to Hendricks what he did to Ellenberger, but figured Hendricks would put up more of a fight. Hendricks looked faded and shopworn after the first exchange and a couple crosses he took. Thompson landed a push/front kick that didn't even look like much and it was like you could see Hendricks' sails just deflate and he folded when Thompson swarmed.

Nelson pulled out a "win" if you can call it that. The highlights might convince someone who didn't watch the event it was a fight, but it was mostly plodding with some 2-3 punch combinations sparingly mixed in. Scoggins completely befuddled Borg who seemed to fall apart gameplan wise after the first round. Borg had no idea how to approach or cut off the ring or what to do at all against Scoggins. Scoggins was worrisome in that he CLEARLY coasted in parts of the fight and that kind of behavior will get him KTFO'd or submitted against guys further up the food chain. Makovsky showed not so much that he isn't good bantamweight material, but that Benavidez still has the chops to gatekeep a division he simply will not win until Demetrious Johnson moves out, dies, retires, or starts eating like Johnny Hendricks does between fights.

I have no desire to see Benavidez fight for the strap a third time when his most recent title bid was even less compelling than the first. Benavidez finds himself in Chad Mendes territory in that Mendes lost twice to Aldo, and has lost to McGregor by stoppage (short notice taking the fight notwithstanding). Benavidez will probably beat anyone else in the division but no one other than his mom is clamoring for a third title fight with Mighty Mouse.

That Circunov guy? Jesus. Looking forward to seeing him blast some guys a bit reminiscent of the hulking Houston Alexander but with more patience, a more well-rounded game, but the same bonkers power, size, and athleticism. It wasn't a bad night of fights for free TV, but that card for a PPV even with Fabricio vs Cain II was very much pushing it in terms of asking fans to buy a sub par product.


On to the upcoming betting lines. I like the line on Bisping vs Anderson. Anderson hasn't won a fight in nearly 3 years, October 2012 being the last time he actually won a fight, didn't break a leg, didn't get KTFO, and didn't fail a drug test for banned substances. How the mighty have fallen.....
Bisping has lost to guys with better wrestling mixed in with their striking, ala Rockhold, Kennedy et cetera. I think Anderson is also in Hendricks territory: "A king has his reign, then he dies." It is the natural order of things. I also like the line on Brad Pickett vs Francisco Rivera. Rivera has some losses to guys with styles suspiciously like Pickett: strong wrestling mixed in with competent stand-up skills (Lineker, Faber, and Mizugaki). I think it's a tight fight and Rivera did impress me in that fight with Urijah Faber, but I think Pickett's overall skillset and experience edges Rivera out in this one.

Pickett and Bisping are two the most live betting underdogs I see listed over the course of the next few events.
I'm curious to see Miocic face Werdum. I hate betting on HW fights, but I like Werdum's skillset. He's dangerous AF on the ground, has that tall frame and can use the Muay Thai clinch with knees up the middle because he doesn't fear getting taken down like most heavyweights. I'll wait to see what the line is on that fight, and I'm especially curious to see how the oddsmakers peg the younger Miocic against the aging champ Werdum. Werdum I think has a few wins left in him before he retires.

Jon Jones vs DC is another upcoming ? for me in some regards. I think Jon Jones even with his personal life what sounds like a trainwreck beat DC over the course of 5 rounds. That was DC's first time fighting a 5 round fight and rounds 4 and 5 were what got him. I thought he worked Jon Jones in the tie-up with his head positioning until he faded in the so called Championship rounds. It's an intriguing bet and another one that I'm curious to see what the betting lines look like when they're announced. 

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