Friday, March 16, 2018

Thoughts on Wardzinski's Upcoming 3rd Match Facing Felipe Pena at ACB 12

Some macro dissection and them some specifics I've noticed in watching the progression from their first encounter which ended in a submission win for Pena to the match under ACB rules going the distance more recently which Pena got the win as well (but no finish). The jump from Wardzinkski's performance where he got strangled versus the second time he want around going to distance has me wondering how Wardzinkski will do coming off of quite a bit of competition experience and wins in the meantime when they do it for the second time under ACB rules and the third time overall. The rule regarding no guard pulling without penalty for the first minute and the lack of advantages do create some different match dynamics but also the 5 minute round length as well rather than if this were an IBJJF length black belt adult match.

As a bit of prep I watched Wardzinski's match with Magalhaes (another big, heavy, tough to sweep experienced competitor. That match is a lot of Magalhaes just sitting on top resisting sweeps and almost not real legit attempts to pass or take any chances. It wasn't much of a showing on his part. Wardzinski's utilized an X-guard to toe hold attack to sweep and almost take the back, and later another almost sweep from bottom from an X or Reverse X-guard type position. I have to assume Vinny's plan was to sit on his hooks for as long as possible in an attempt to wear them out. Magalhaes slows by the third round and the sweep that almost scored in round 2 is successful as Magalhaes doesn't break space/retreat and clear a foot/grip to get back to his feet and stop the momentum as Wardzinski follows him to top position. Wardzinski immediately looks to pass and Vinny didn't offer much resistance. Vinny would later recompose his guard and look to score with a Z-guard position but ultimately Wardzinski retained top position and rode out the clock and winning on the strength of points scored in that round.

So, onto Wardzinski's first time facing Pena and some initial thoughts: Pena is a more aggressive passer and his longer frame immediately looks to pose a greater threat to Wardzinski's favored butterfly-x-reverse-x positions. Wardzinksi nearly scored with a sweep as he used his single leg x/butterfly hook to get deep underneath and uproot and roll Pena but Pena recovered before points for the sweep could be scored. The early going from bottom is classic Wardzinski utilizing a 2 on 1 grip at sleeve and behind the tricep grip to then reach for Pena's belt. Pena responded by posting with his free right hand and intermittently framing against Wardzinski's face.
Wardzinski reached high over the back with or for the belt grip (can't see from the angle and as he want back, Pena was able to smash his lone butterfly hook and this aaaaaaaaalmost conceded the pass for Pena into what looks like an insanely heavy side control. I also can't tell if Pena's left arm which Wardzinski had locked in the 2 on 1 sleeve and tricep grip was punching down or gripping one of Wardzinski's knees or pants also blocked from view by the angle). Wardzinski fought out before points and recomposed his guard. Fast forward and Pena's standing passing powers him through to a double under position which gets him the stack style pass and into a heavy side mount then back attack as Wardzinski scrambles and concedes the mount and in the midst of efforts to escape Pena chains together strangles to eventually finish an ezekiel choke.

Their second match picks up right where the other began, with Pena standing passing and forcing his way through to pant grips and Wardzinski inverting and scrambling to avoid Pena's standing passing. By this time, Wardzinski is utilizing more single leg X positions in his game but as he goes tall to sweep with it Pena just steps out and immediately collapses down into a heavy passing position. Pena isn't a guy I've studied in depth but the variety of passing styles he utilizes did surprise me in watching this match. That combined with his length and frame and size is kinda terrifying to watch as a guard player myself. Wardzinski has new tricks by now as well with a nice double sleeve grip knee lever style sweep which he combines with his usual butterfly sweep to great effect in combo nearly toppling Pena over. In particular, Pena's mix of passing to force inverstion, grabbing the back of the pants, and also collapsing his long frame down into half-guard pose murderous problems for any guard player.
Pena literally appears to smile when Wardzinski got for single leg X, then Pena gets to the back as Wardzinski attempts to keep Pena's left leg/foot isolated to no avail.
Overall, Wardzinski accounts himself much better and I suspect the 5 min rounds actually better suit Wardzinski because I have to assume that in that second round had Pena gotten to his back midway through a 10 minute IBJJF round, it would've probably been another strangle finish.

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