Friday, June 29, 2012

Statistical Breakdown of the 2012 Mundials (& MMA is Bulls*&$)

Statistics are an under utilized tool in BJJ.
A fair number of research projects exist on the internet for Judo, and a fair number of case studeies regarding the highest percentage throws, across weight classes, in various tournaments et cetera.
Jits Magazine, awhile back, did a piece examining the highest percentage of scoring techniques by weight class, and not surprisingly, sweeps were a much higher percentage scoring technique in the lower belts/divisions. It also suggested (like this information) that the takedown thus becomes more important at the higher weight classes.

Anyhow, just watching the Pans or the Mundials, we can all make observations. But often, our own bias, prejudice, whatever, will cloud the actual observations and conclusions we can make about our own sport.

The file-drawer effect: we cast away that which conflicts with our beliefs and emphasize in our own minds that which supports what we already think/know/want to think/want to know. Infinity Kimonos provided a breakdown of some parts of the Mundials. The results are below.

A number of things can be gleamed about where time should be spent for elite level competitors whilst training in the gym: strength and conditioning for the likely duration of matches in your division. How matches get to the mat AND how likely a guard pull or top/bottom position is to decide a match. Which divisions really have the most submissions et cetera.

Some observations/conclusions we can draw:
Featherweight has the highest rate of finishing.
The Takedown begins to figure in at about 1/3 of getting the match to the mat from middle to ultra-heavgy. Interestingly enough, women score more takedowns than any of the male divisions, but this is a much larger cross section of weight classes forming an aggregate/composite group.
The guard puller tends to win in the lower weights but then with middle to ultra heavy, the person on top enjoys a significant advantage/likelihood in winning the match.
Light feather competitors, the guard puller wins more than half the time. This contrasts with middle weight competitors where the guard puller wins little more than 2 out of 5 times, or about 40%.

Again, the chaff we get from the wheat is how to focus our time in conditioning for match duration, how important guard pulls vs takedowns are in our division, or in game planning in knowing how likely a competitor is to pull guard versus say, how likely the person on top is to win.

Food for thought. Do some thinking.

As a featherweight myself, I've gathered that at the elite level, a little over 40% of the time, the guard puller wins. About 20% of the time, the person on top wins. The double guard pull to person who comes on top score about 30% of the time.
This tells me quite a bit about how guys at the elite level in this division are preparing as we look at how the matches play out.

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