Wednesday, March 11, 2015

MMA Gambling Picks for UFC 185: Dos Anjos vs Pettis - Picks, Gamblingz, Thoughts et al

It's tough to bet against Pettis. He looked a bit rusty at the outset against Melendez but he was tagging Gilbert with very hard shots when he hit him, even back pedaling. Having rewatched the guillotine finish, Gilbert was hurt by Pettis' power, instinctually stuck his head down/low to grab the legs and paid the price.

It wasn't flashy shots per se, but much like that body kick with which Pettis folded Cerrone, Pettis does damage and lands shots that straight up do damage which changes the flow of the fight (as was the case with Henderson). Dos Anjos's finish of Henderson was impressive but I still side with Pettis in terms of ability to dish out punishment.
Pettis is just so damn difficult to bet against.

Normally, I wouldn't bet against the guy with the losses against better opposition (Hendricks), but the disturbing rumors I heard about how much he ballooned up between defending his title has me seriously concerned. It may be a case of expert failure and the ego of getting the belt and thinking he beat the GOAT/GSP the first time around, but no matter the source, it is alarming. I thought Hendricks lost the first fight and actually won the second on my unofficial scorecard.

All of the above being said, I actually think Matt Brown can win this fight. I didn't see the crushing power Hendricks once had in his cannon of an arm in the rematch with Lawler despite Hendricks' saying the reason he didn't have his power the first time round was a torn bicep. I also didn't see his much vaunted wrestling appear much in their second go round either so I find it hard to believe this fight will unfold differently unless he has some strange magic spell that befalls him when he's fighting 5 rounds rather than 3. Matt Brown is hittable as we saw against Lawler and seemed to wilt against Lawler's grind, but Hendricks doesn't fight with the same kind of pressure that Lawler has used to grind up guys like Brown, Rory Macdonald et cetera.

I've seen Hendricks fight three fights almost identically and not do the things he once did: land the power straight punch, use his clinching against the cage effectively and score takedowns. Matt Brown lost to a guy like him in R. Lawler, punishing power and grit that breaks you down over the course of the fight. I don't se Hendricks fighitng that way as often anymore. I can see Hendricks pressing Brown against the cage and taking advantage of Brown looking to Thai clinch.
At any rate, I think Matt Brown can win this fight and I'm gonna bet with the underdog this time. I could be reading the smoke signals completely wrong and Hendricks blows him out ala Jon Fitch or something but I just don't think so. 

Roy Nelson vs Overeem - not a fight I want any part of betting on in the least. That being said, I'll side with Overeem to win a lackluster decision by greater variety of strikes. Nelson is 1-3 in his last 4 fights and Overeem is just 2-2 in his last 4.


Cejudo should win assuming he actually makes weight in his next up weight class from multiple fails to make weight at 125.

Pearson vs Stout - Pearson has losses to Al Iaquinta and Diego Sanchez. Stout just lost to KJ Noons. That speaks volumes.

Cruickshank has the slightly better resume against more name opposition, but I'm a big supporter of Dariush and I think the oddsmakers have this one all wrong. 

I think the last three fights are pretty lopsided mismatches with not much wiggle room for betting to make $. 


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