Recipe for this card marketing-wise: Put a Gracie on the card and fill the rest with more or less stand-up fighters. Headline it with Heavyweights because the standard logic for non-hardcore fans is they want to see Heavyweights. Either Cain gets violently knocked out, or outworks Ngannou impressively and we have a title contender, but not really, because his teammate DC has the strap. The rest of the bouts are stylistically designed to please non hardcore fans with a lot of kickboxing et cetera.
On to the picks!!
The last time Velasquez came off of a long layoff and faced a dangerous KO artist he lost his belt to Cigano. The other time he came off of a lengthy layoff, he got caught in a guillotine by Werdom. Ngannou is only like one of those fighters to be sure. He avenged that Cigano loss two times/later, but I'm never one to bet on HW fights and certainly not one to bet when a fighter is coming off the longest layoff of his career. I'd like to see Velasquez do to Ngannou what Miocic did but with a higher workrate, more punches, and less just laying on him crouched against the cage, but in no way shape or form would I bet on this fight.
Kron said he asked for someone better than Caceres, which is a bit concerning. Caceres has gone from being a guy no one took seriously to still having a job in the UFC, where are are few easy fights. He's managed to basically alternate wins with losses 1-3 at a time, but never lose so many that he gets the pink slip. For sure, he's lost to better fighters than Kron, but Kron, to me, is still an unknown quantity. Time and again we've seen guys not adjust to the changes of fighting in the cage, coming from fighting in a ring/ropes. Caceres if he's smart will stick and move and make Kron plod after him. Kron at times will move on his feet, but unless major changes have been made to his game, I don't see that lasting more than part of one round. I would love to see Kron jump to guard and work his way to the back as he did in his previous two fights, but Caceres for all his glib demeanor is also no idiot. He knows the one way that Kron takes this fight. Kron has preferred to clinch, by walking forward, dirty boxing, and jump to guard. A guy like Caceres who is fleet of foot doesn't really have to fall into this game plan if he doesn't want to. I'm curious to see how this one goes. The likely choice is Kron by RNC in the 2nd round, but I could honestly see Caceres sticking and moving and winning 2 of 3 rounds as Kron complains that he's unable to cut off the cage and force Caceres to stand in front of him long enough to be sucked into fighting in the ground. It's called mixed martial arts, not "fight the kind of fight I want you to fight that benefits my lack of wrestling".
Felder vs Vick: Felder has a complete set of tools, but sometimes falls into the habit of admiring his own work/combos after throwing them. I don't see Vick weathering the storm for a full 15 minutes. Felder by 3rd round stoppage/TKO.
Barbarena vs Luque
Luque is 7-2 in the UFC, dropping a decision to Leon Edwards and a decision to Michael Graves. Barbarena is 5-3 in the UFC. They share a common loss in that Barbarena also lost to Leon Edwards via by decision. Luque has a higher finish rate and I see as a slightly more polished, more athletic, slightly more well-rounded fighter based on the variety of finishes I see on his record. I don't think Luque gets the finish here as Barbarena is tough, but I also don't see Barbarena beating Luque. Luque by unanimous decision.
Rivera vs Sterling
Rivera was on his way to a title shot (if anyone ever is in the backed bantamweight division), but a starching within a minute or 2 by Moraes changed all that. It's easy to forget that prior to that, Rivera had beaten literally everyone he's faced professionally and that list includes names like: Faber, Alcantara, Almeida, and Munoz. Sterling, who I like, and who pulled off a Suloev stretch in his last fight, has lost to guys like Moraes (also by stoppage), Assuncao, and Caraway. Sterling has some names on his hitlist as well, but not quite the tier that Rivera does. At any rate, this is a tough fight to call, but unless Rivera has become overly gunshy, I see this as a very close fight. Sterling throws greater variety of strikes, and if Rivera doesn't vary his punches with wrestling, I can see Sterling's kicking causing him a lot of problems. I don't see this becoming a grappling match. If Rivera can land cleaner punches it will sway this judges. I think Rivera wins a split decision.
Jury vs Fili
Fili has always felt like a solid kickboxers who's scrappy but not good enough to put away the mid-top level guys in his division. He'll fight to a close decision and lose against most of the top 5-10 guys. Jury's only UFC losses are guys with the last names Mendes, Oliveira, and Cerrone. Fili has managed to lose to names slightly less impressive and I think Jury is the obvious pick by unanimous decision.
On to the picks!!
The last time Velasquez came off of a long layoff and faced a dangerous KO artist he lost his belt to Cigano. The other time he came off of a lengthy layoff, he got caught in a guillotine by Werdom. Ngannou is only like one of those fighters to be sure. He avenged that Cigano loss two times/later, but I'm never one to bet on HW fights and certainly not one to bet when a fighter is coming off the longest layoff of his career. I'd like to see Velasquez do to Ngannou what Miocic did but with a higher workrate, more punches, and less just laying on him crouched against the cage, but in no way shape or form would I bet on this fight.
Kron said he asked for someone better than Caceres, which is a bit concerning. Caceres has gone from being a guy no one took seriously to still having a job in the UFC, where are are few easy fights. He's managed to basically alternate wins with losses 1-3 at a time, but never lose so many that he gets the pink slip. For sure, he's lost to better fighters than Kron, but Kron, to me, is still an unknown quantity. Time and again we've seen guys not adjust to the changes of fighting in the cage, coming from fighting in a ring/ropes. Caceres if he's smart will stick and move and make Kron plod after him. Kron at times will move on his feet, but unless major changes have been made to his game, I don't see that lasting more than part of one round. I would love to see Kron jump to guard and work his way to the back as he did in his previous two fights, but Caceres for all his glib demeanor is also no idiot. He knows the one way that Kron takes this fight. Kron has preferred to clinch, by walking forward, dirty boxing, and jump to guard. A guy like Caceres who is fleet of foot doesn't really have to fall into this game plan if he doesn't want to. I'm curious to see how this one goes. The likely choice is Kron by RNC in the 2nd round, but I could honestly see Caceres sticking and moving and winning 2 of 3 rounds as Kron complains that he's unable to cut off the cage and force Caceres to stand in front of him long enough to be sucked into fighting in the ground. It's called mixed martial arts, not "fight the kind of fight I want you to fight that benefits my lack of wrestling".
Felder vs Vick: Felder has a complete set of tools, but sometimes falls into the habit of admiring his own work/combos after throwing them. I don't see Vick weathering the storm for a full 15 minutes. Felder by 3rd round stoppage/TKO.
Barbarena vs Luque
Luque is 7-2 in the UFC, dropping a decision to Leon Edwards and a decision to Michael Graves. Barbarena is 5-3 in the UFC. They share a common loss in that Barbarena also lost to Leon Edwards via by decision. Luque has a higher finish rate and I see as a slightly more polished, more athletic, slightly more well-rounded fighter based on the variety of finishes I see on his record. I don't think Luque gets the finish here as Barbarena is tough, but I also don't see Barbarena beating Luque. Luque by unanimous decision.
Rivera vs Sterling
Rivera was on his way to a title shot (if anyone ever is in the backed bantamweight division), but a starching within a minute or 2 by Moraes changed all that. It's easy to forget that prior to that, Rivera had beaten literally everyone he's faced professionally and that list includes names like: Faber, Alcantara, Almeida, and Munoz. Sterling, who I like, and who pulled off a Suloev stretch in his last fight, has lost to guys like Moraes (also by stoppage), Assuncao, and Caraway. Sterling has some names on his hitlist as well, but not quite the tier that Rivera does. At any rate, this is a tough fight to call, but unless Rivera has become overly gunshy, I see this as a very close fight. Sterling throws greater variety of strikes, and if Rivera doesn't vary his punches with wrestling, I can see Sterling's kicking causing him a lot of problems. I don't see this becoming a grappling match. If Rivera can land cleaner punches it will sway this judges. I think Rivera wins a split decision.
Jury vs Fili
Fili has always felt like a solid kickboxers who's scrappy but not good enough to put away the mid-top level guys in his division. He'll fight to a close decision and lose against most of the top 5-10 guys. Jury's only UFC losses are guys with the last names Mendes, Oliveira, and Cerrone. Fili has managed to lose to names slightly less impressive and I think Jury is the obvious pick by unanimous decision.
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