Friday, February 27, 2015

So, Frank Mir Won a Fight (This is Why it's Called Gambling)

Last week was one of those know, the night where I'm reminded even a broken clock is right twice a day. Guys like Khabilov and others lost fights that on paper they should have won. Even the oddsmakers had a number of fights pegged wrong....if you can call it that.

I'm 29-27 for picks over the course of the last 5 UFC events. This last event really did a number on my picking %.

The betting lines weren't very favorable to make money off the "sure things" and we were reminded that in the fight game there is no such thing as a sure thing unless someone is on the fix.

At any rate, Khabilov, Andrade, and Silva just didn't get the memo. I did pick the Sam Alvey fight because I saw the startling number of TKO's on his record.

I'm reminded of the UFC Sweden/Stockholm card where almost none of the Swedes won.

I switched up some of my picks for Draft Kings as my thinking shifted a bit the closer I looked at some of the records of the guys fighting by picking Mike de la Torre but overall I went 2-9 on the card with my original picks.

Andrade blew it. Mir pulled the rabbit out of the hat. Iuri blew it. Barboza started strong with a lot of kicks and some well-timed knees but Johnson stayed on the walking him down game play. Dwyer pulled out a superman punch for KO, I can't predict that *&$@, y'know?

This upcoming weekend we have a Bellator card Friday and the hopelessly understaffed Rousey/Zingano PPV with Holly Holm (seriously?) as what I assume is the co-main event. Koscheck fights Ellenberger as both guys try to make some money but we all know neither will fight for the belt again.

I actually met Josh Koscheck in Vero Beach, Florida a couple years ago while there for my mom's wedding. Super nice guy in person.

At any rate, the card is full of a ton of guys who are almost total unknowns to me which makes betting problematic to say the least.

Tony Ferguson faces Gleison Tibau who is a gatekeeper extraordinaire but depending on the line, I may do some gambling. Roan Carneiro returns to the UFC after blazing it up out in the minor leagues against Mark Munoz who has only faltered against top flight guys like Machida which makes it hard to say if Munoz' better days are behind him or if he's a Ryan Bader who only falters against the best? 
Kid Yamamoto is fighting God knows why? but I'd sooner bet on Frank Mir to pull out a win than Kid Yamamoto at this point.

In Bellator's Bush League neck of the woods Emmanuel Newton defends his strap and as the guy is hittable with some come from behind wins, he's always entertaining, King Mo fights Cheick Kongo in what I think will be entertaining for as long as it lasts unless Kongo presses King Mo against the fence for 3 rounds as he does sometimes.

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