Friday, February 19, 2016

Gambling Picks for Sunday's UFC Fight Night 83: Cowboy vs Cowboy

Waxed poetic about them earlier this week, and took a bit more time to think about my picks.
Cowboy vs Cowboy - people forget Cerrone has a super slick ground game and transitions well. I think he if he gets into a firefight with the bigger-framed Brazilian Cowboy it'll be a short night for him. I think if he comes out and finds a transition to the back he'll end the Brazilian's night early.

Brunson vs Carneiro - Brunson has never lost by submission and Carneiro's vast majority of wins are by submission. Brunson is a physical specimen and despite some danger flags, I'm going with Carneiro as he's looked great coming back into the UFC after an extended period fighting elsewhere. Brunson is dangerous to be sure but has not brilliant components to his game and I expect Carneiro to find a transition to a position where he RNC's Brunson.

Garbrandt vs Mendes - Garbrandt is like a slightly less hyped version of Sage Norcutt or however you spell his name, but Garbrandt totally underwhelmed me way more in his UFC debut. Garbrandt has bested Brimage  (1-4 in his last 5 fights at this point) and a ploddingly pedestrian point fighting stand-up fest against a guy who's beaten no one you've ever heard of nor could recall. I'm concerned about Mendes getting Garbrandt to the mat as Mendes hasn't faced any top flight guys yet in his short professional MMA career and Garbrandt is willing to look cool (or so he thinks) and win a plodding kickboxing 3 round bout as I've seen in one of his other fights despite all the hype train attention he's been getting as a possible next big thing. I think if he comes out trying to put Mendes away with a sense of urgency he'll make a mistake and get submitted. 

Dennis "I'm coming off of two stoppage losses to two top guys" Bermudez vs Tetsuya "I'll literally sit in your guard and hammerfist my way to a boring-ass decision" Kawajiri....I think Bermudez wins this one in a fight Kawajiri repeatedly tries to drag to the mat with the clinch and Bermudez not letting him.

Chris "yes, I fought Jacare twice and got paid" Cammozi vs Joe "yeah, remember when Nick Diaz and I fought in the hospital after our UFC bout" Riggs - loser leaves town match. Riggs has basically not won in the UFC other than a win via DQ and Camozzi has picked up wins when not facing the Jacare's of the division which Riggs certainly by no stretch of the imagination is. 

Shane Cambell loses to Krause via technical stand-up beating but with Krause's height at this weight class I could see him getting a late triangle to armbar finish in the 3rd round also.

Sarafian vs Scary non-American named fighter - Sarafian is too hittable at times for me to think he doesn't get clipped on the feet early and put away by the dangerous no-namer.

For whatever reason, my spider-sense is suggesting a night of submissions.....perhaps something is in the air? Well, we'll see Sunday night.
I'll be working Saturday night downtown, then Judo and the Hip-Hop Chess Federation Open Mat Sunday then relaxing/watching the fights Sunday evening.
Pretty excited.

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